you guys see that Aussie JUMP right into a short OTE setup just now??? pull a fib on the OTE long from NYO / LC and it was fulfilled at the 200% extenstion also sweet spot for short setup…
Range/consolidation.
is there anyway to spot this sooner so you dont go chasing trends?
We should get smaller OTE on 5m right now for short during the Asian Session KillZone @ 1.0297
You would be reasonable to expect that consolidation follows trends (like we had in aug/sep) but in my opinion it doesn’t really change anything. You just take the setups as they come, the only thing that changes is that you want to take most of your position out rather than letting it run since there is no clear directional bias in a range.
Consolidation is when you want to get into the next setup? Why do you say there is no clear directional bias? ICT has teachings on how to find the direction in a range…Open Interest
Look at July of this year…The whole month were were in a range…It was accumulating long positions.
ICT was long at 5400…There is a clear directional bias in this range…
Now look at the Cable starting at Sept 21st of this year…
You see the clear directional bias now? Lower Highs & Lower Lows…
For those who were trying to go long this week…
Look at the cable and last week what did we come off of??? OTE on 4H Chart setting up another Lower High…Were do you think price will end up??? Making a Lower Low…
Someone asked earlier today about Market Structure and said it was unclear as of yet…
I see lows taken out but I don’t see any significant highs taken out…Market Structure is the What? Bearish…
Go backtest through more ranges/consolidation. It’s not always clear even with OI. Sometimes OI both increases and decreases within a range. Sometimes it breaks out opposite to what OI suggests. Nothing is 100% or even 80%. It makes sense to take short term trades in a range. However if you do get in an entry at a range extreme, no hurt in letting it run in case of breakout.
Well said, that is with any of ICT’s tools…that is why we take profit at 30 pips…then let it run it’s course…
Yep the cable has been pretty clear with a nice downtrend. We were talking about fiber though which has been mostly sideways.
Take note that there is HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI data release that may have an impact on aussie in about twenty minutes time.
See the small consolidation on the Cable within OTE short…I would put my money on a breakout to the downside…Not taking it since I already have to many positions open already on this pair…I would like to see a break of today’s low tho…
What does ICT say about News…It will likely run stops before hand…I think it has done that…
Fiber…Look at 4HR Chart…we made OTE (Yes 90% the cut off) when we made the high last week…into 3140 key level…Down she goes…add in bearish divergence with the cable…
Yep. Also remember in early April, ICT was anticipating breakout of euro range to the downside. He was wrong and admitted it. Instead we had a rally until May. Now, even if you think you have a good idea where the breakout will occur, you can be off by days, weeks, months. Now if you had a position at the top of the range. You wouldn’t mind another retracement or two or if you just got in short, don’t get your hopes up and take most of your position off.
I gotta say I am kind of in a toss up what might happen next tho…
We have Bullish Divergence and OTE on Fiber if we get to 2930 area…
I am still more Bearish over all because of the USDX…Nice 4HR OTE that needs to be completed yet and we have a long ways to go on it if it happens…
Yes but short was the higher probability play because we were at the top of a consolidation on the daily time frame. I didn’t say don’t trade in a range. I was just saying in general although there is a higher probability of a short. We are also making higher lows on the daily/4hr. IE market structure is not clear…because we are in consolidation. We are really saying the same thing.