Interesting Article: Goldman-warns-global-economy-going-round-smaller-smaller-circles

(Not sure if i am allowed to publish links to articles, moderator, do let me know in case i m violating the rules)

This is an interesting read

Goldman Warns “The Global Economy Is Going Round In (Smaller & Smaller) Circles” | Zero Hedge.

The question is:
Are we really moving in smaller business cycles?
or are we simply stuck in a slowdown (positive growth decelerating)?


It depends on your reason(s) for asking or finding this (the article) interesting. Insofar as trading is concerned: I (personally) don’t think it should matter just as long as the markets move one way or the other. While this may seem obvious to someone with your experience and technical analysis skills (have looked at your technical analysis on your other thread): many would allow an article of this nature to influence their trading decisions and, for the most part, this will “end in tears” unfortunately.



Hello Dale

Your answer made me smile :slight_smile:
Indeed, this article should not have any significance to shorter time frame traders. I think the reason i am asking is my subconscious “hope” for a bear move the next week(s). Then again, as you said, it should not matter, a good trader does not care where the market goes, but simply sets a plan for all scenarios and trades that. Thanks for the insight !!


If the truth be told:

The reason I responded to your initial post is because the timing thereof was impeccable. I had just closed a trade that I should not even have been contemplating based on the rules of my main trading system or methodology. At the time I found myself asking “well why are you in this trade anyway” (bearing in mind that this is coming from someone who has been around these and other parts for a good long while, even had to take a break from this business for a period of three years or so to only now and finally arrive at a point of consistent profitability, only now are able to religiously follow a trading system or methodology to the letter, and only now can see and treat this business for exactly what it is). The answer: somebody on Bloomberg just happened to mention that, in their esteemed opinion, the particular commodity in question was due for a correction. They were wrong. My main trading system or methodology was right. Simple as that. Point is that even after all of this time and making this same mistake in the past with disastrous results I was not immune to the opinion of another without my even being aware (and my not even being aware is the concern). Alright: the trade cost me nothing i.e. when I noticed the error of my ways I immediately closed out at market for a miniscule profit but I followed the trade on paper to its logical (and incorrect) conclusion and it most certainly would have ended up being a solid loser for no good reason (and then posted on your thread). I don’t anymore mind incurring losses if my main trading system or methodology was wrong on a trade but I do mind incurring losses when I’ve personally been at fault (again). Anyway: I’m sure it won’t happen again for another few months!!! LOL!!!

The above all being said: I’m sure that all of these esteemed analysts and investment firms know what they’re talking about in the long term and for the purposes of investment. But we’re not in the business of investment (big difference between trading and investing).

So yeh: keep abreast of markets and economic affairs etc. by all means if you are so inclined. But do not let this information influence your trading decisions (of course assuming a technical trading system that is consistently profitable over time and has given you absolutely no good reason to date to doubt its robustness).



This article is [I]sort of[/I] on topic (I hope) —

Money flees US stocks at highest level since 1993


…this pattern…hints at investors’ expectations for the future," Morningstar senior analyst Alina Lamy said in a report. “The consensus is that the United States is in the late stages of its bull market.”


Thanks DP for your extended explanation. Thanks Clint for the article.

As an investor, i think there are much better opportunities at the moment than S&P. Been cautious for some time.

As a trader, any move is fine. A strong bear move will be easy and fast money.

It is interesting to see the same cycle repeat over and over again at market tops and bottoms.
Human emotion can be very amusing!!

Is the bull dead? — Or just taking a breather?

Edit: Peterma says it’s probable the old bull is just having a power nap.


Been waiting for than bear move for a long time. Is the Bull dead or taking a breather? Good Question.
In all cases there will be a significant pullback. Let see where it goes from here. Did anyone trade this last dip?

Always look to earnings to check for pulse, if lower then possible health issues, if normal then likely only sleep.

Risk aversion re China, has been on the cards for a while, possible that an administration not used to the ways of capitalism have caused some calming, first on the pension funds, then on the rates, still have more room on that front if needed, so probable that the old bull is having a power nap.

Having said all that, in more recent times I would target a new high for the exit, now just will look for a modest profit - until the bull returns to full health :slight_smile:

Thanks for the tip. Will keep it in mind.

Here’s an interesting article posted today on

Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) Could Hit 20,000 Before Its Big Crash - TheStreet

I don’t fully buy into the Elliott Wave methodology used in this article. But, I could be wrong.

Elliott Wave analysis could reveal plausible targets for the ultimate tops in this market —
20,020 on the Dow (first chart), and 1,225 on the Russell 2000 (second chart).

After that, according to the author of the article, it’s “Katie, bar the door!” It’ll be 1929 all over again.


Thanks for the article. i know my reply is a bit late. Things got very busy at work since the August move, and even worse after the oil dip and all the mess in the Middle East.

As for the article, i think with enough QE the markets will manage to hold and make new highs, even with interest rate hikes in the coming years. (Even though the TA picture is weak, and does not confirm a rally YET).

It is true that all the red flags are there for a major dip and a long term bear move, but this all depends on how much the crowds are willing to believe/disbelieve the economic tales. This has been the game for decades. A beautiful lie and a rising bull market or an ugly truth? Lets see what happens.

Wish you all a happy new year, Clint and everyone else on the forum!