Introducing myself

Community Introduce Yourself
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Hi all, my name’s John, I’ve been trading Forex for 9 years. I started out by doing the babypis school of pipsology and threw myself into trading.

I know have my own blog detailing every decision I make in the direction market, my goal is to help as many traders as possible.

It’s a long and difficult road to consistent profits but if you dedicate yourself and never give up, it’s very achievable.

Feel free to ask anything. Every question is valid. I’m pretty sure I’ve probably wondered it myself at some point.

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Hi John! It’s great to have you here :slight_smile: Can’t wait to hear more about you.

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Welcome to the community, John.

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please guidde mme just finish babypips am wondering. about strategyy

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Welcome back! Looking forward to your contributions.

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Welcome to the community John, do you have discord? I’d be happy to chat with you and share a bit of my trading experience.

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What is the one lesson you’ve learned in these 9 years of trading?

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Accepting losing trades was single greatest issue I had. It took me a long time to overcome.

The realisation a losing trade doesn’t mean it was a bad decision. Very often fresh events out of your control stop a trade out.

Every trade I take, I ask myself the question:
If this trade stops out, would I still think it was a good idea to take it?

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Hi, thank you.

Unfortunately I don’t have a discord but I’m very happy to chat on here or through email

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Well done for completing the babypips course.

Personally, I have much more faith in higher timeframes, 1hr and 4hr. Both for trend analysis and to place a stop loss behind.

I hope this helps to start with :slightly_smiling_face:

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I get it. Accepting losses was tough. How do you manage mindset during those tough time?

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For me it’s about letting go of the need to be correct. And understanding when a trade stops out, it was still a good decision in the moment the trade was taken.

Good trades stop out due to the nature of the market.

Sometimes I’ll have two or three trades in a row stop out. It’s a case of staying disciplined, not making rash decisions and to simply focus on making what I believe to be good decisions in the moment.

By using a greater risk reward ratio each trade (usually 1.5:1). Half my trades can lose and the account still makes money. So in those losing periods I remind myself that in a couple of weeks time those losses won’t matter.

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Great mindset! I’m trying get better by accepting losses too. How you keep your emotions in check after losing in a row?

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Overtime I conditioned myself not to think about financial gain.

If you’re chasing money, every loss cuts your soul and causes rash decisions in an attempt to make the money back.

If you can simply focus on making good decisions according to your system and only look forward, forgetting about the past.

Once you’ve had a couple of bad runs but then seen the account back in profit a few weeks later, it becomes easier to accept losing trades.
,
I’m making it sound easy but its not. On a psychological level, learning to accept losing trades is probably the most difficult thing I’ve ever done.

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Weekly review.

The week starting Monday 13 January began with ‘the market speculating’ there would be no US rate cuts this year due to the strong US economy. From a trading point of view, another week of strong US data would have (likely) made the week a lot more straightforward, meaning we probably could have continued to long the USD all week.

But of course, trading is rarely straightforward. And US data throughout the week, (PPI, CPI and RETAIL SALES), all came in on the soft side. Remember all those months ago? (maybe even years ago), we were told the FED needs to see a softening of data to be comfortable cutting rates, this week it happened. And all of a sudden, 3 cuts are back on the table.

Whilst this is good news in terms of a return of the ‘soft landing risk on trades’ which have served us so well. It does leave us in a bit of limbo currently as we await confirmation, ideally, US data will continue to remain slightly soft, and we’ll see a continuation of this week’s stocks up / yields down, ‘risk on correlation’, (a correlation we’ve not seen for a while). We can then confidently resume ‘risk on’ short JPY or CHF trades…possibly even short USD.

Alternatively, if we see a resumption of strong US data, it won’t be long before zero rate cuts are talked of again. And the USD will once again be the ‘only long in town’.

Throughout the week, the BOJ was bubbling under the surface, ‘the market’ currently thinks the BOJ will hike this coming week, hence the JPY strengthening despite to underlying positive market sentiment, which I believe skewed the currencies strength this week due to JPY liquidity.

Regarding the BOJ meeting, I can envision two scenarios at the upcoming meeting, a ‘dovish hike’, or a ‘hawkish hold’. My preference would be for a ‘dovish hike’ which, ultimately ‘should hopefully’ ignite a return of the ‘short JPY’ carry trade. Especially if the mild risk on environment continues and earnings season doesn’t throw up any concerns.

Sentiment for the GBP remains subdued, not helped by soft data, although every time it appeared the pound would seriously sell off, it found some resilience and rebounded, perhaps due to the ‘mildy risk on’ environment.

On a personal note, it was a disappointing week, with two trades both stopping out. Although I stand by the logic of both trades, the GBP ‘in the moment news trade’ was perhaps a little rash as it was taken pre European open. The AUD CHF ‘risk on’ trade, whilst again, logically reasonable, it was perhaps a trade that could have been taken 24 hours earlier. It’s also worth noting the trade stopped out at a ‘gap’ during market close, which is something I’m monitoring, particularly on CHF pairs.

I begin the new week without a clear ‘risk bias’, although ‘hopeful’ risk on trades will soon be back en vouge. But I’m interested in the reaction to the ‘Trump inauguration’, the BOJ and S&P earnings season.

Finally, following 4 days of no water at home, the supply is back on. Which is good news because I’ve discovered my beard has a lot more white in it than I ever would have cared to imagine.

Results:

Trade 1: GBP USD -1

Trade 2: AUD CHF -1

Total = -2%

Total since start of blog = +32.4% (risking 1% per trade).

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INAUGURATION CALMS THE MARKET.

The initial take away from ‘Trumps first day in office’ has been USD weakness. The possibility of hard hitting tariffs contributed to USD strength throughout December and January (the other factor was of course the strong US economy). But no mention of imminent ‘hard hitting tariffs’ has hit the USD (along with last week’s ‘soft’ data). And for the time being the market it at ease and ‘risk on’ trades look very viable.

Unfortunately, we had to expect the unexpected during the administrations first term and I suspect it will be similar this time round. And it won’t be long before a tweet rocks the boat. But for now, I have my eye on ‘risk on’ possibilities, it’s a question of whether to short the USD, JPY or CHF. Each option comes with it’s risks, namely the BOJ, strong USD data or Trump volatility.

There is a case to say CHF short is the best option but I’ll refer to the momentum the currencies have against each other and wait for a stop loss I feel comfortable with.