Numbers are funny things - I don’t often look to exactitude, numbers wise except for “Tax returns” - As a QS I sometimes have to deal in scary numbers. For example back in the early 2000’s I was Commercial manager for a firm doing Gas pipelines - repairs and diversions. We had around 50 gangs working every day on small jobs (£3000 to £150,000 ) and I had a team of twenty “inputters” in four locations. The client had numerous “engineering managers” messing with our “Invoices” and basically paying what they thought was about right.
We submitted our Invoices (Tracksheets) in Lotus Approach and they manually adjusted them and each of them sent us a “Payments sheet” every week as plain text, without any explanation. Often they simply paid the easy ones and left the harder ones until “Later” !
My assistant was an accountant trained ex “Company Secretary” and I once fired a situation precis at him, much like the mental arithmetic I just fired at you and he was unimpressed ! - Called it "the School of “near enough accountancy”
But I knew we had been underpaid somewhere between £5 and 12 million ! He could say to the penny which tracksheets were underpaid, but coud simply not keep up with the sheer volume of transactions and since the tracksheets were only a reasonable estimate in any case, there was no real point in knowing that information unless we could do something about it.
[Which I could do at the quarterly “Disallowed cost” calculations - which we used to assess the “Pain gain” adjustment, by simply sitting our very best inputter on top of their “Best engineer” and killing his reductions stone dead ! ]
When I left a few years later, he got my job and worked 16-18 hours a day trying to keep up. Failed dismally and got fired after around 10 weeks, when the payments got into a hell of a mess. (Computers couldn’t do then what they can now) and monthly income turned to Ratshitt !
What I’m trying to say here is that - I can see you’re compounding and making a fair stab at it ! - Just believe my “Top of the head” figures - They’re not a million miles out. and since the returns are coming in on the basis of “incomplete information” - exactitude won’t help much !
I am much impressed though !
I can only see one issue atm - and that is if and when you walk into a long- term trend! And if I’m reading correctly your “close all” should keep you away from huge drawdowns - at least until you have a chance to take a look at what is going on !
Personally I’d not drop your percentage to 5% - but the “4 doubles” I speak of is $320 so I personally would take the difference (c $200) actually OUT of the account - giving you a 2000% locked in return on your original and continue trading the 10% on the $320.
This I would repeat periodically so you’d be taking out maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of the account periodically and keep the rest running - 10% will compound WAY faster than 5% !
However, it’s YOUR system, and I have nothing that would get anywhere near these levels - so please feel free to ingore me !
Suffice it to say "you have my attention ! "
Love it !