Is 25% a month possible?

Trading Discussion
44

Same broken record, same old mantra…quash newbie expectations so low that blowing their account or making 2% for the month is the expected result… Instead of quoting huge numbers and wheeling out Industry propaganda, please point out where the flaw lies in this exercise and we can have a serious debate…

I’ll expand on how this exercise is relevant at the end of the thread… next week.

Sustainable… It doesn’t need to be… 25% will be reached within 7-8 days exposure to the markets, and what, with the success rate achieved so unbelievable (according to some), I can effectively have the next 13 or so trading days off… sit on the beach…and come back fresh in June and do it all again…

Day 4 - 3.6% return… A quiet day with a mix of SW strategy and residual (35min after) NFP price action … No trading took place during the NFP release…

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Same formula on the same $1197.84 account (Day 3 close)… up to $1235.58 (Day 4 close)

1:1 RR / 1.2% risk (14 pips) / $99 Margin (3 pos. max ) Non believers… feel free to verify with your charts…

Account has increased by 18.1% (184.3 pips) in 4 days…

1 active position remains open on the USDJPY, ($22 Drawdown…) A cost of doing business…
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Note: The OP’s question was “Is 25% a month possible”. At the same time on another thread a question was raised “How much profit can l REALISTICALLY make trading starting with 500 dollars” which after I realised the OP was referring to Binaries, I left alone…

In any case, I didn’t have a $500 account laying around, only $1027.00 account which I break off my larger accounts all the time (explained in many of my posts) as part of my risk mitigation strategy…

So this is the LIVE account I started this exercise with… It’s also more likely the account size that a newbie or inexperienced trader should be starting with and can hopefully apply this risk profile.

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54

A one time off 25% is an absolute eventuality. At the heart of matter, is consistent profitability. Please allow me to recast your question. On average, is 25% a month possible?

It is only possible after a tremendous amount of persistence. Most people give up too easily. One will have to be pretty hardcore in their pursuit of financial freedom, to be able to persevere in the steep learning curve of forex trading.

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I think it is a great pity that this particular thread has developed such a negative and personally derogative tone. In my (extremely humble and very naive) opinion there is much that could be discussed here that would be very useful for all kinds of traders.

I agree very much with @Trendswithbenefits that there is great potential outside the boundaries of the norms usually recommended to Newbies, but I also agree that there are also potentially grave risks involved for the inexperienced trader that should also be highlighted.

Regarding percentages, I think this is a very overrated and inaccurate way of assessing one’s performance. The key issues in risk management are the size of one’s actual positions and the parameters regarding stops and targets. The actual equity sitting in one’s account is a rather arbitrary and passive factor in profitability beyond the amount needed to comfortably cover margins. Two traders with identical trades will have entirely different percentages if one has 1000 units of equity in his trading account and 4000 in his bank acc whilst the other happens to have all 5000 units in their trading account.

There is value in having some form of matrics to provide some kind of comparability, but this percentage of equity is very loose and imprecise to be used in any narrow sense. I guess many Newbies do have all their available equity in their account since they often only have a small amount and so there is some degree of relevance in this metric.

But I think the real issue here is not so much about percentages as it is about differing trading styles and what can be acheived with them, and what suits which kind of trader, rather than some purely theoretical argument about can 25% be achieved only once in a lifetime or regularly for ever.

For example, personally, I have my own, so-called, sniper trading which I employ when I think there is nothing much going on and I sit and watch the trades with hawk eyes and my “rules” for that are so totally out of line with any “norms” that I would never even talk about that in detail on a Newbie site! But I pick up 5-20 pips without too much trouble when the conditions are right (and that is the key issue with that!).

But the “norms” that we are all familiar with are very sensible constraints for Newbies to focus on and are more likely to keep them in the business until they have found their wings and learnt to fly. Then the deviations from the “straight and narrow” can begin…

I promise not to intrude here any further, but I really think a lot more positive and open mindedness could actually reveal some interesting and worthwhile features (and warnings) of both short and longer term trading as well as highlighting the amazing versatility of trading styles that the forex business provides.

We are all on the same side in this business…

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56

Hi @alphahavoc I have fast tracked this exercise into 7-8ish days so as serious followers don’t lose interest… 30 days is a long time to wait for an outcome…

25% will be an eventuality, true and far more trades have been taken over a shorter period than would be required to get to the total… Strengthening the case that it can be achieved over a much broader time scale…

But if you were to run this profile to the letter (1.2% return per day) I still feel this would be a walk in the park… still 13 days to theoretically get it done.

All the risk is managed with this concept… Small account size…$500 to $1000 to begin with is not a huge investment for most serious traders to fund…begin by keeping funds in your Bank at Interest… not theirs for free

Account size is a component of the risk strategy, your not trusting 10’s of thousands to an unproven Broker…

1.2% of total account value should never be exceeded… Leverage is irrelevant because margin (if traded over 20 days) should never exceed 5-7%…Micro lot sizes a very necessary to control losses and drawdown…

As long as you have a sound trade strategy in place that can make +8-9 pips per day this works like clockwork… AND you will be continually gaining experience in a low risk environment…

I, like many others rely on a version of the SW strategy as demonstrated in Dennis’s inspirational thread… who’s results far exceed 25% per month, so I’m not sure what the issue really is…

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57

Pardon me, but i don’t quite get what you mean. Do you mean gains of 25% per week?

A walk in the park indeed. However, i will not recommend aiming such quick returns for a newbie. It will be too expensive a way to learn a lesson. It is my personal belief that, all newbie will lose 25% or more when they first start a live account for trading. To Lose with a big margin is counter productive to learning. A prudent approach is a much better habit to incalculcate, in the early stage of trading.[quote=“Trendswithbenefits, post:56, topic:147668”]
Leverage is irrelevant
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I disagree. The higher the leverage the better for newbie, because they will be able to trade with a smaller live account without getting margin call, which is almost a certainty to get busted.

The issue is Easier said than done!
“Everybody falls the first time”

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Gus Hansen is not somebody that should be complimented.

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Continuation… Below is the summary from the start of this exercise…

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Day 4 - 3.6% return… A quiet day with a mix of SW strategy and residual (35min after) NFP price action … No trading took place during the NFP release…

Same formula on the same $1197.84 account (Day 3 close)… up to $1235.58 (Day 4 close)

1:1 RR / 1.2% risk (14 pips) / $99 Margin (3 pos. max ) Non believers… feel free to verify with your charts…

Account has increased by 18.1% (184.3 pips) in 4 days…

1 Loss, 3 positions (in profit) (USDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPUSD) currently open with an update tomorrow AM…

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63

Good job!

I can see that most of the times you let it go for 5 pips then close the position. But sometimes 20 pips. Why is that? :slight_smile:

Also, which timeframes do you use for this SW strategy?

You only look at the SW chart and trade accordingly to that? Is it important to draw trend, resistance and support lines?

Thanks in advance.

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Hi @Mordengaard

Some of the SW moves are strong graduale price increases or decreases, so for this exercise I will hold for 21 - 26 pips…

Some SW moves, especially at the extremes of Currency Meters have a tendency to retrace and fast (a Strategy in itself) so I close the positions 5.5 - 6.5 pips… locking in profits… small but still profit…

1 hour Charts generally, 15 mins (minimum)
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Day 5 - 6.1% return… A quiet day with 3 screen hours spent using SW strategy…so much ranging in the markets… It is a Monday… Unfortunately Included a 12 pip loss…

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Same formula on the same $1235.58 account (Day 4 close)… up to $1299.31 (Day 5 and Final close)

1:1 RR / 1.2% risk (14 pips) / $99 Margin (3 pos. max ) Non believers… feel free to verify with your charts…

Account has increased by 24.4% (234.8 pips) in 5 days…

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65

So how many months are you going to run this for, to prove that it’s easily achievable, for yourself, as it says in the title of this thread?

I’m curious as always to see this, but pardon me for having the usual expectations, perhaps not really helped by viewing a screenshot of ‘what happened’ – rather than a verified tracked account, I’m sure you could mange that after all; not to mention it would make it easier for everyone to track past performance.

Perhaps it’s not credibility that you’re after, in which case I understand the approach you’ve chosen :slight_smile:

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66

Will try, thanks! :smiley:

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@BaconSandwich I don’t give a toss about credibility… I don’t register any of my accounts on FX sites of any description… why would you give hackers the opportunity…

You’ll have to go back and read the original thread which was closed by the mods to understand this continuation…

Past and future performance are irrelevant to this exercise… If 25% gain on a $1000 account can be achieved over 5 days using a form of SW Currency Strength Strategy… then it could quite readily be achieved by one position per day using 0.1 lots, no more than $40 margin with 1.2% of your account at risk per position over a 20 trading day period…

The account started at $1027 and a profit of ~$272.00 ($1299) was generated over the week.
So if I was to continue trading using the same risk profile the strategy started with…

There is effectively no longer invested funds at risk… which should go some way to help with the physiological fear of losses that can impede new traders…

Total risk management, which is what the exercise is designed to demonstrate…

Would this strategy (20 day) work scaled up on a $10,000, $25,000, $100,000 account??

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68

@Trendswithbenefits

How are you mate? Haven’t seen your updates for a while… What happened? :slight_smile:

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Yes it is very possible. Just depends on your appetite for risk and how much of your account balance you stake on each trade. Your trading system should have edge and you run the risk of wiping yourself out if you risk too much per go.

Alternatively you can risk 75% of your account balance on every trade and try to achieve 25% PnL with an R:R 3:1 trading on the 1 minute candle. In that case you can probably make 25% everyday with just one trade a day, until the music stops.

72

I’m curious, if you have 1:1 RR and rising 1.2% then how do you gain 2.6%? Your gain should be 1.2%
Excuse me for posting this four months later, I was just browsing old threads…

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Hi @TalonD, the 1:1 RR and 1.2% risk per trade (which grew as the account grew) was based on 11/12 pip TP and SL. If the market was moving strongly in the positions favour I would let the trade run past the 1:1 RR. As you can see with the screenshot the position (NZDUSD) was closed @ a 21 pip profit or AUD$27.92 profit, which at that interval in the experiment was 2.6% of the total account…

Have a look back though the thread and you will see closes at 5 pips where the position wasn’t going to plan and others well over 20 pips which met similar criteria as above… hope this explains the post.

I had to read back through the thread to answer this…BTW, this demonstration was an absolute waste of time here on BabyPips… Too many close minded jaw flapping pseudo guru’s attempted to shoot this thread down over its course… the moderators didn’t help matters although it was finally edited into the thread you see today…

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74

That’s what I figured but I’m a numbers guy so things have to add up :slight_smile: I read through the thread and agree with you. people saying it can’t be done even while you’re demonstrating doing it. I like the simplicity of what you were showing in the thread about using a 20 SMA. I like to add in some support / resistance. :+1:

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75

How do you do this? Do you just keep scrolling down or search by topic? I’m seeing some old quality threads popping back up, was wondering how people are finding them.