gambling reputation is negative that’s the reason why most people can’t say that forex is gambling.
Gambling or not…it doesn’t matter, chance to win/lose is not far from gambling. 95% lose in forex. how bout in gambling 100%? lol if its 100% no one will do it. there are 3244945 kinds of gambling, some need skills too.
You rascal, this thread don’t need any encouragement! :33:
chance of zero on roulette is exactly the same as any other number. That’s basic probability maths. That’s how house gets the edge and that is why the house wins in the long term.
I enjoy gambling too but everything apart from manually shuffled blackjack house has the edge(and for manually shuffled one you’d have to be good with numbers to just begin to even out odds between you and the dealer which is card counting and which is “banned” in casinos because it gets rid of the gambling part in manual shuffle poker). Over long term you will lose everything. You can get profit spikes then run away, it’s still gambling on a spike.
Forex is having long term edge using analysis. Thus over long term you are not gambling. Poker in a casino against the dealer is also gambling it’s the luck of the draw.
Poker championships when you play against other people is not gambling, the skill (psychology of the game) overrides the luck of draw factor. It’s a touchy subject as some authority still define poker as gambling while others don’t.
Edit: Just like to include that financial markets do not move in random, they move as a result of something, they move to equilibrium. Movements of forex or equity do not depend on random factors, while poker does rely on card draw but try to eliminate that factor using psychology.
no though the probability is the same for 0 in roulette, but this is my personal experience in gambling, in roulette there are lots of strategies to get over 70% chance of winning and in nearly all these strategies number 0 is not involved And also I have played and asked to many about number 0 and there are rarely some who bets in this number cause I and they alike have not seen much in number 0 being the winner.
Poker in casino is also not gambling cause the dealer is just for assuring the fairness of the game, the winnings or losings are by the players.
Blackjack can be said to be the factor that most of the people call gambling 50:50 chance game cause blackjack has got very easy rules so most of the people try out their hands in this game and in this game an experienced dealer always can turn the game to his favor. But if you see blackjack properly, you can see blackjack has long history of being a mathematical game.
Forex has got long term edge using analysis but and but if you really compare it to gambling, then unlike gambling which has like you say 50:50 chance, forex has very less chance of getting the winning hand cause 95% of forex traders are losing.
and though the analysis gives you an edge in the market you still can’t be sure of that cause market can go against you. And there is also so called stop hunt by brokers and main institution traders which makes forex more difficult to win for normal people than gambling. For skilled people, they can win consistently just like any skilled gambler.
Fact of the matter is 0 has the same odds of appearing as any number on the table.
By poker tables in casinos I mean the one where the dealer also has a hand. But still poker relies on luck of the draw THEN it tries to compensate it by psychology.
Blackjack is not 50:50 game, since YOU move first, yes you do not have to take a card but because you move first the house gets the edge. You get most tables in the casino with machene shuffle do what every you want, card count with autism-genius level perfection over long term you WILL lose, same with ALL of the gambling games over long term you WILL lose. As for manual shuffle tables, you can card count and get the edge but that is banned and you still rely on luck of draw.
All gambling games are about luck of draw.
Trading has absolutely nothing to do with random chance, as I said all market movements are a consequence of something, markets simply try to find equilibrium.
With perfect knowledge of the markets (no future knowledge) but if you have absolute knowledge of markets, economies and psychology you will win 100% of the time.
If you apply that to gambling you will still lose in the long run.
As for 95% traders lose, first of all that number is a word of mouth, second of all you don’t just put a random person to perform a hear surgery and gamble that he will be able to do it, right? You teach him how to perform the operation then you let him do it.
Same with forex, how many people out there know what they’re doing? not many. How many people on this forum have a degree in finance and economics, how many worked in the industry? When you do not understand the markets, why and how they move then you are not trading.
Skilled gamblers…in poker maybe and I already explained to you why. Look I gamble all the time too, come in for manual blackjack double my money and walk away that’s short term.
To sum it all up, it’s very simple really forex movement does not depend of random chance, while gambling does and only then tries to compensate for it be it through psychology or “gambling systems” which trust me on that one utter bs. And just because you met that single person in the entire world that managed to be profitable in gambling after 20 years does not mean gambling is not gambling, in fact he fits the probability damn well.
What if my friend thinks(based on his forex knowledge) e/u will drop 100 pips tomorrow but I think Itll go up 100 and we agreed that if im right hes going to pay me 1k and ill do the same if hes right, are we gambling?
Funny. Ppf, that made me laugh. 
As I stated elsewhere: If you have a nail, everything looks like a hammer. If you are a gambler, everything looks like gambling.
It has nothing to do with the chances or risk. [U]It’s the approach what you use which defines what you do.[/U] Another example. If I drive with my car every day to work and back, it’s part of work. If I drive with the same car at the weekend to a seashore for fun, it’s NOT part of work, but recreation.
If I trade with a business plan (alike), it’s business. If I trade just for fun, it’s gambling. The outcome is irrelevant. There are successful gamblers and successful businesses. Plus in any case the opposite is also true. Plus there are more unsuccessful businesses and gamblers as well.
You tell me, what is your evaluation based on? What is the % chance that you are right and what is % chance that he is right. Build an econometric model with parameters of IR, Bonds, Equity, GDP growth, and other various parameters do a t test to find out how reliable model is then come back to me.
People in the business have no problem saying trading markets is gambling with a big grin on their face. Do they mean it in the extreme sense though. Professional do not exactly rely on random chance they create mathematical models which sometimes failed. Brings to mind a big hedge fund full of ph.d people in economic and finance, they were doing well making billions then at some point it all went wrong. The reason for it as one of them later said was on the lines of “perhaps we should rely less on maths and more on sentiment(psychology)”.
With gambling such as poker, roullette, blackjack you are given random number on a dice or a random card then you act.
In markets you create your own odds. As markets are not random they can be predicted with perfect knowledge. The closer your knowledge to “Perfect” the better your win rate is.
My friend is the broker. My chance to win is same as the majority of traders.
you are talking about dreams now. Like they say, no one can be perfect so do you think what you said is true?? is there any trader who have won 100% of time even though they might have become one of the richest.
And by the way, you talked about a person who managed to be profitable in gambling after 20 years then will that be called gambling by anybody??? he will either be called lucky or will be given title like king of gambling and so which are indeed given to some people.
Markets are random, they should be predicted. There is no perfection. Even if you are damn well near to perfection like you say, there is no way you are gonna be able to win all the time or your winning rate is gonna be same cause just having knowledge doesn’t mean much to a human being.
And like you said market can be predicted. And the meaning of “prediction” is not perfect , it is something which can happen but also may not happen, which is always done by skilled gamblers, they predict what hands other has, they predict what number can appear by looking at previous numbers, etc.
edit:::: let’s discuss this tomorrow, 1 am here now.
I am a newbe here, but…
I consider a Forex to be a certain game where 5-10% of traders are taking everything and rest are just gambling, doubling up and losing at the end once money run out.
Why?
This small proportion has some sensible strategies and can adapt to market trends.
So for example what one can say about currency like Euro?
It is in deep trouble and its general trend is down (against a dollar).
It will remain so until PIGS troubles are resolved… or until European Union is dissolved.
So save some printing frenzy in the FED, that trend of weakening Euro will continue for a while…
Now I am a penny pincher and work still in demo mode.
Lets look on daily candles first.
If particular daily trend from last month or two suggest further drop EUR/USD and there are no news or bad news from Eurozone are expected we may consider it a trading day on this couple.
Then lets put our bets only once red candle shows up following a green one hitting an upper 2nd Bollinger band.
Lets do some penny pinching (sell on rallies once criteria are met).
Lets open one longer term bet (few hours long) and secure it with a conservative trailing stop loss… or do trailing in your brain in front of the screen…
You will not win all the time, not even 90% of times.
But you will win more than lose…
Is it gambling?
I doubt so…
I suspect that this small winning group are those acting by reason who are winning against 90 - 95% of gamblers who have hands too itching to keep them out of pressing sell/buy button, even if there is no cause at all to trade on a given day.
Market movement are not random that’s a fact. I don’t think you are reading what I wrote. I do not want to waste my time any more.
But if your friend is a central bank speaker responsible of press releases, your experience would be entirely different…
That is not even illegal in forex environment as long as I know.
I see this and I just had to comment. And I think that is false. Your chance to win is NOT the same as the majority of traders. Different people have different levels of prior experience, personal skills like motivation and drive, proper and improper mindset, and right and wrong ideas about the market.
From what I’ve seen in my short time trading (and I have met a LOT of people that trade already), you can spot the ones that are highly likely to fail, and highly likely to survive/profit. Basically, you have to 1) pay attention in class (school), 2) do your homework (research and practice), and 3) develop a trading mindset.
If you lack any of these, the chances are impossibly high that you are one of the 95%. I can count on one hand the number of newbies that spend as much time on fx as me, with an open mind. Every single trader that asks for trades or holy grail strategies or +50 pips a day systems on 30 minutes of trading time all have blown their accounts or vanished off the face of forex markets for good.
And of course, if you lack any of the 3 things I listed, the chances are, you are gambling.
But isn’t this the same answer as given by the poker player, he also says treat it like a business, use all the skills and strategies needed to win.
Personally, I think a those people who trade the FX, that haven’t first learned in depth how to trade the FX properly are gambling and they end up losing, blaming the FX for their loss and not their lack of education.
If I belong to the 95% that means my chance is same as the majority. 95% is the majority. In a single trade, you are right people are different, in the long run…i dont think so.
Forex can be very much like any financial market or similar to the way professional gamblers actually take the wild gambling out of their profession.
Patience to increase the odds.
Sorry, I should have been more clear. I’m saying that each individual has a different chance of success. Maybe for you its 40% and maybe for me its 20%. If we fail, we land in the majority, but the amount of work we put in will drastically change our % chance of success. So I’m not saying that everyone has a 95% chance of failure, its just that some people have a lot higher chances of failing, while some don’t.
If your take profit on a trade is less than 50 pips then you are better off playing roulette (American wheel with 2 greens). That’s not including the forex edge calculation.
Here’s the logic behind that statement. On a roulette wheel the house edge or your cost to play is 5.25% on even money bets. In forex lets say the spread is 2.625 pips. That’s a strange number of pips for a spread but spreads are variable and roulette cost is not! So anyway… 5.25% of 50 pips is 2.625 pips. So with a 50 pip take profit your spread cost is the same percent as the house take in roulette. So if your take profit is anything less that 50 pips and you Don’t have a probability edge then you are better off playing the even money bets at a roulette table.
“And that’s the name of that tune”
-Baretta
Say whatever you want but it is not a traders job to convince people of the contraire
Gambling Sucks.
Regards.