Yeah, this is what I am saying, it will be for sure for a while in the positive zone. It’s not my invention, statistics says that. It will be sooner if you devise an intelligent system of trades. If I can , everyone can.
I was just responding to your earlier question I dont know how else I could have answered it.
Good morning,
TalonD: I hate to be the one to tell you but I don’t see this thread dying anytime soon!!! LOL!!!
One thing at least: this is not like the other one i.e. there’s some constructive debate going here not a bunch of ‘ar*eholes’ (well one or two) who are just trying to justify their own shortcomings!!!
I’ve already noted everything that comes to mind about the trading vs. gambling issue unfortunately. Like I said: as long as our revenue service deems the business ‘normal’ then I’m ‘pshycologically satisfied’ that I’m not gambling!!! LOL!!! Come to think of it there is ONE thing I didn’t mention yesterday: a person CAN register here as a professional gambler. This very topic came up on the same radio station only a few minutes after my little interview. It’s actually a two hour long business program that is on every weeknight at 18h00 GMT+2 where ‘everything money’ is discussed although unfortunately it’s very much ‘geared’ toward South African stocks and investments and, unfortunately, they don’t seem to realise that Wall Street is what moves our Stock Exchange and not the other way around. They also ‘grate’ me sometimes because on the news bulletins (every hour) up until the NYSE closes they ALWAYS give the pricing of the Dow and the NASDAQ and only when they ‘remember’ do they give the price of the S&P500!!! LOL!!! That being said it’s a very good program and radio station in general. If anyone is interested it broadcasts via live streaming too: …:: Talk Radio 702 ::…. It’s the Business Show hosted by Bruce Whitfield is the one I’m talking about. Quite a nice chap I must say. It’s talk radio and I’ve been listening to it ‘since I can remember’. As a matter of fact I’m TRYING to organise myself a one hour spot to talk about TECHNICAL trading i.e. they always only ever have analysts being interviewed i.e. those long term investment type advisors. Put it this way: given the listenership and the credibility of this particular radio station it would ony take that one hour spot to catapult this business of mine into the stratoshpere!!! Thus far they’re not ‘biting’ yet though BUT I’m working on it (we all know how persistent and relentless I can be)!!! LOL!!!
Anyway: once again I’ve digressed!!! As I was saying: one can register here as a professional gambler i.e. one or two callers later, after my little interview, a professional gambler called in to ask whether or not HIS losses are claimable. And the answer was a definite ‘NO’!!! And as a matter of fact: any winnings over R25 000 ZAR, as of three or four weeks ago, and as per our Finance Mininster’s latest Budget Speech, are subject to taxation at, wait for it, 40%!!! How they’re going to police this I don’t know. The only way that I can think of is that the casinos themselves will deduct the tax before paying out. That being said: how do you police something like that if, for example, you’re only playing slots (then again would a professional gambler be playing slots)??? What’s more: only after this latest Budget Speech did ‘the penny drop’. Last year a law was passed that made online gambling against the law here in South Africa (as a matter of fact somehow they’ve managed to block access to some of the better know online casinos EVEN from behind a proxy server). What’s more: our banks will not accept credit card or debit card receipts from any gambling operation. After the Budget Speech: well, what can I say, it all of a sudden made sense as to why last year this law was passed!!! LOL!!! Now that’s not to say that our company tax is any lower BUT at least losses and other expenses are claimable against income (profits) thus reducing the taxable amount.
To answer your question as to why that roulette system of yours would fail: the ony thing I personally can think of is that AGAIN, at some point, you’d reach the table maximum??? Don’t keep us all in suspense!!! LOL!!!
I must just tell you that one day I had a good laugh!!! I came across some or the other thread where a roulette system was being advertised that you CANNOT LOSE!!! I forget what it was called but had some or the other fancy name and LOADS of calculations and rules etc. The bottom line of the thing was that after obeying all the ‘rules’ and performing the calculations you would NEVER bet on the table i.e. there would BE no bet as each rule and calculation eliminated a certain series of number until there were no more numbers etc. on which you would bet!!! So was the guy lying??? LOL!!! No. If, as per the rules of the ‘system’, if you’re not betting, you cannot be losing!!! LOL!!! It was quite entertaining to say the least ESPECIALLY given that you can just imagine how many hits the site (and I think he had a forum too) was getting!!! LOL!!!
By the way: for a bit of ‘light hearted’ (if you can call it that) entertainment I sometimes like to listen to Don Imus. Bloomberg Radio is also not TOO bad but sometimes I think they just talk for the sake of talking!!! LOL!!!
Anyway: let’s all have a VERY good week!!!
Regards,
Dale.
For me, this is really just a question of labels. It really boils down to whether the Forex market is predictable enough to give consistent positive results over an extended period of time. The fact that it is possible to do that makes me feel instinctively that it cannot be classed as gambling. Except that as one can never be 100% sure of the result of a trade, then it does have some elements of gamble to it. But is that any difference from, say, an athlete attempting to jump over a certain distance? They have the skill, they know that they can do it, but they do not know whether they will on that occasion. It might be too windy, the track might be too slippery, they might aggravate an old injury etc. If missing their mark on that occasion caused them to fail to qualify for the next round of a competition, then their career/earnings at that point would be adversely affected by random factors outside of their control. But we would not call that gambling.
So I can see a good case to be made on each side of this discussion. Personally, I do not mind whether someone else labels this gambling or trading or career or whatever. If I can sit here and be confident that in 2011 I will make a profit, and am able to predict roughly how much that will be, then I am happy that it works for me as a career with an element of risk. Which works for me. So I sort of agree with much of what has been said on both sides of this discussion - maybe we’re all right?!
The edge lies in whatever it is that makes you confident that overall you will be profitable, even when incurring losses, it is probably different for all of us. I don’t think that the time invested in researching/losing trades is wasted time, so should not be used as a criticism of trading. Most careers will give days that don’t work out, or bring costly disappointments. As long as these are offset by successful days then it is all just part of the process. The time invested in a trade that does not work out is time invested in learning, so that time should lead to a better win rate in future as you weed out the losses caused by mistakes. So it is not time lost, it is time that helps you make more money, just as much as the time spent on winning trades. All professions require an investment of time, many in a much more rigid way than this one. Only resents the time invested if it does not lead to a profit, I know I did when I started out!
Hello.
Yep: I think I have to agree with your statement below.
So I sort of agree with much of what has been said on both sides of this discussion - maybe we’re all right?!
I mean to say: what’s the difference between doing this and my going out and starting up my old IT Business again??? Invest money, time, effort, and it could still either be a success or a failure (and probably the latter given the time that has passed since I was involved or interested in IT AND given that there is now far more competition than there was back then). At least I believe I’m ‘up to date’ in THIS business!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
hey Dale
I’ll give a listen to your radio station. I just brought up the link in a new tab on my browser.
To answer the roulette puzzler. My alternating red black system solves the problem of the same color hitting multiple times in a row. However… there are time when the wheel will land on B,R,B,R,B,R in exactly the opposite order of your bets and even if you have a completely random betting pattern, the wheel will land on exactly the opposite of your bets and it will happen with exactly the same frequency as the long strings of reds or long strings of blacks that kill a double up system… so you just can’t win!
Something else interesting about statistics. If you have a large enough number of computers all generating a random sequence of letters and characters they will eventually produce the entire works of Shakespear and everything else that has ever been written… along with a lot of random garbage too…
Hello,
Well take a listen. As I say: it’s a good show (actually it’s a good radio station i.e. I have it on 24/7 really). But of course I like the Business Show. They do discuss global events and stuff like that but as I say: I always want to have a bit of a ‘giggle’ when these ‘analyst gurus’ come on and talk about the reasons why the Johannesburg Stock Exchange was down (or up) today. It, in my opinon anyway, has ‘squat’ to do with what shares were traded on the JSE today!!! It’s really simple: Dow / S&P / NASDAQ down (or up) then JSE down (or up)!!! That’s not rocket science!!! LOL!!!
And I DO NOT KNOW why we’re talking about this gambling business BUT we are so:
There’s also some chap that was ‘peddling’ a roulette ‘system’. It worked on odds and evens or the ‘streets’ if I’m not mistaken i.e. after a certain sequence of red or black or a number not coming up a certain number of times in a particular ‘street’ (not quite sure of the terms here) then you would start betting and, of course, doubling up on losers. The idea, once again, to increase the ‘probability’. Once again: table maximum is your enemy. Put it this way: if it were NOT for table maximums you pretty much could not lose on roulette IF you had a lot of capital. I mean to say: if you could play roulette and ‘double up’ ad infinitum there is just no way you could lose because EVENTUALLY a bet would be ‘right’. I used to know somebody that was indeed a ‘hardened gambler’ and he use to just bet on the ‘streets’. You know that one (it’s pretty well known): wait for a spin, and place your bets on the the OTHER two ‘streets’ (or rows or whatever they’re called). If you lose: double up. Believe it or not the guy did make money but the FASCINATING part was this (and come to think of it it’s darn scary now I’m thinking about this i.e. think ‘trader psychology’ here): aside from the obvious things of zero or double-zero and table maximums being against you the guy always made money BUT, as here’s why I say it’s quite scary come to think of it, his DOWNFALL WAS instead to sticking religiously to the said system, after a good few bets, he’d double-up ANYWAY (same as doing a few ‘stellar’ trades and then throwing money / risk managment out of the window) and, of course, would end up having to start all over again (sound familiar)??? LOL!!! Of course: being ‘plied’ with free booze by the casino didn’t help matter either!!! LOL!!!
As I said to SimonTemplar earlier: maybe we’re ALL right!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
ROFLMAO!!! LOL!!!
Good one ElectricSavant!!! Good one!!! LOL!!!
Before I watched it and saw the title my first thought was that it was about Floor Trading. Now THAT, all and sundry, is something TOTALLY different. Somewhere here before I noted this (and I REALLY MUST find the video again): a Floor Trader at the CME gave a one hour lecture on trading and I’ll never forget his comment that went something along the lines of ‘there are 100 000 Futures Traders in Chicago and there are 20 000 Floor Traders at the CME and only 20% of Futures Traders make money so do the math’. OK: not the EXACT quote (or figures) but the point was that ‘you cannot beat a Floor Trader’ (Open Outcry)!!! LOL!!!
NOT very encouraging I know!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
It’s no better than a coin flip…plus the table limit takes you out…
ES
P.S. No table limits in trading (well that might be debatable at some brokers)…but its no better than a coin flip…
Where are the arbitragers…? or the inside traders…?
This could be closer to “Not Gambling”.
ES
Well what about this:
What if one were to say that the PSYCHOLOGY of trading and gambling is the same but trading per se is not gambling??? Does THAT make any sense??? LOL!!!
By the way: it’s worth a mention that the ‘hardened gambler’ to which I referred in my previous post died a ‘down and out alcoholic’ eventually!!! LOL!!! I just thought that I’d mention it i.e. in spite of his ‘gambling prowess’ that was the end result!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Look at Jesse Livermores life…
By the way that is a good read for an aspiring trader (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator).
It is not necessary for this site to have this extensive routine of flood protection…it is just silly to make us wait between posts like this…there is not that many people here…
ES
Let me put it another way (in a crass attempt to clarify my statement above):
NOT gambling:
One of the systems that I trade is based on the ‘fact’ or ‘high probability’ that more often than not price will bounce off of a 20-day high or low. How long the bounce may last or the extent of the bounce is questionable. NOT gambling: trail a profitable stop and apply strict risk / money management rules.
GAMBLING:
Same system EXCEPT: no exit strategy and no risk / money management.
That’s the best ‘splitting of hairs’ on the subject as I can come up with right now!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Edit:
I’d better qualify the above i.e. I’m taking about equities and commodities here by the way. Unfortunately in FOREX, and with most brokers, you have an ‘extra day’ to contend with (Sunday) and that tends to ‘skew’ things somewhat.
If thats the best that you can do…
Then put it all on red.
ES
Well to be honest:
If I WERE to gamble then yes in all probability I’d always go with red for some reason. But come to think of it: I also seem to remember reading somewhere that statistically, and ASIDE from zero or double-zero, doesn’t red come up more than black???
Regards,
Dale.
OK but now this is getting serious (and I’m spending far too much time on this thread)!!! LOL!!!
Let me put it this way and in all honesty:
FOREX I cannot comment on. I have my own convictions and I’m not going to open myself up to some MORE ‘arrows in the back’ here. But could one honestly say that trading stocks is akin to gambling??? Take any listed company you like. There is so much information out there that is by LAW made public. If you know how to read financial statements and have a decent knowledge of the sector etc. then surely buying (or selling) that stock is far removed from gambling???
Regards,
Dale.
Roulette - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This is about all that I would want to know about Roulette…I played it once in my life. A dealer once reminded me about the “eye in the sky” when I was counting cards in BlackJack one weekend at Caesars Palace.
I could only net about 4 bucks an hour after expenses (I was young and I spent a lot)…so I gave it up in those days…that was a long time ago…Why am I telling you this?
ES
what did you do to get the results on strategy tester like on the ‘sells only’ for example. just enter a sell and keep it open for the whole month of Jan? a group of pairs? or just a single pair?