Is forex like gambling?

It is because most trading strategies assume some losses so the best way to trade those strategies is to put yourself in the right frame of mind, if you can accept those losses are an integral part of trading you therefore dont sweat them, dont revenge trade, and dont chase them, you just accept them and continue according to your strategy. In other words, trade without emotion, " win some lose some its all the same to me" Obviously this assumes the overall trading strategy is profitable.

Too true and well said.

I posted a collection of quotes somewhere in this forum a while back and, as entertaining as they were, the overall message REALLY was that although none of the ā€˜famousā€™ traders quoted agree on trading systems or methodologies, the one thing that they DO agree on is the fact that losses are simply an integral part of the business and itā€™s the WAY that losses are handled (risk and money management) that makes the difference between success and failure. I also seem to recall a famous statement which I THINK was made by Larry Williams (but I could be wrong on this although Iā€™ve seen several other, but not too different, 'versions, of this too) and it goes something along the lines that itā€™s not how much you MAKE in this business but how much you DONā€™T LOSE. Something like that anyway.

Regards,

Dale.

Well Daleā€¦

I appreciate your time on discussing this ā€œjoke of a threadā€ and ending with it being a debate.

I wish it were so black and white as you paint this to be.

If technical analysis helps the trader to decide on how he trades then the the best TA traders would be reflected in how well they use their TA.

If trading were that easy then the most logical approach would yield profit each time or at least most of the time. But this is not the case. There are some TA enthusiasts that even state and proclaim the trends do not yield any benefitā€¦then the random walkers chime in that the chaos theories hold waterā€¦lol

Dale , After trading on and off for the last 35 years many different markets and instruments, sometimes full time and sometimes part time, with my money and as a CTA with OPM, I have made some conclusions. I have realized that if you think trading is Gambling or ā€œNot Gamblingā€ might be a personal issue in which nobody has a right to decide for you. I personally trade Forex as Gambling. Sure I use TAā€¦sure I like probabilities.

Dale, Trading forex with longer TFā€™s I surely agree with you about. Intraday movements are noisy and many indicators for TA are not designed for such short samples. Many professional Forex traders trade with fundementals only and merely use TA for entry and exit precision. I can understand them alsoā€¦it is so nice to make a trade in one direction with conviction & confidence based on fundemental analysisā€¦heck half of the work is done as you only have one directional bias to evaluateā€¦

So is Trading Forex Gamblingā€¦You betchaā€¦If it were easy as logic dictates then we would all be millionaires.

Now some of you are going to post that it is both ā€œGamblingā€ and ā€œNot Gamblingā€ā€¦It is how you react to what you see determines if you are gambling or notā€¦Well folks, you have that right to your opinion on how an unknown outcome might develop alsoā€¦but I put you to task to prove that your opinion is correct.

ES

There is no gambling. Its simple you know to trade forex or dont know.

Sure they do. If youā€™re sports betting, they quote the odds.
If youā€™re table gambling as in Roulette, Craps, Poker, Blackjack et al, you have to buy their chips, and itā€™s THEIR dealer on payroll.

If youā€™re machine gambling, THEY set the payout odds on each machine. Ever heard the term ā€œloose slotsā€?

Once your money is in the casino, it rarely comes back out.

I know how to throw the dice tooā€¦I still do not know the outcome.

The difference is we know that coming into the Vegas gameā€¦

The illusion that Forex Dealers give is up to themā€¦ unknowingly to the traders that they profit from. There is a big difference.

When the police tells someone to not walk around in that neighborhood because you will be robbed is different than the robber telling youā€¦give me your moneyā€¦

Its is not attractive to lay out the money for MT4 and just make money off your traders PIP spreadā€¦This is not the business model for Forex Dealers, this is why MT4 has plug-ins for Forex Dealersā€¦This is a selling point. MT4 is made for dealers not tradersā€¦

At least the Casinos tell you the house has the oddsā€¦

ES

P.S. Donā€™t think that non-MT4 dealers are any different. I can guaranty you that Oanda has flood protection and fast moving market routines too! they may or may not be as blatant as other dealers at SL hunting when they bucket their trades, but they also abuse it at times. At the next NFP just watch Oandaā€™s platform go downā€¦to later sort out the trades at their own discretion.

Not true. Every broker is required to spell out the risks involved in their full disclosure statement. In which, they also tell you they are on the other side of your trade.

from CitiBankFX

Citi as Principal. Citi acts as the counterparty to all foreign currency contracts executed through CitiFX Pro. Citi is not required to continue to make markets in foreign currency and may refuse to accept any order for any or no reason, including but not limited to the failure of a counterparty to have sufficient funds maintained with Citi to margin the position, market volatility and illiquidity in the related interbank foreign currency market. In particular, during periods of market volatility, it may be difficult or impossible to liquidate an existing position, to assess the value of open positions, to determine a fair price or to assess the exposure to risk. For these reasons, transactions in foreign currency involve increased risks.

So, if you read the fine print, the police have warned you. Theyā€™ve also told told you they can execute your order, or, maybe notā€¦

Canā€™t blame losses on ignorance.

Ahhhā€¦So the general disclosure statement makes them no different than the Casinoā€™s thus my point is made. Trading is Gambling.

Tangā€¦If you are a trader then you are not making your case very wellā€¦

We all realize that what most Forex Dealers do is not covered in their disclosure. They simply are thieves and their business model does not support them. They cannot survive off of a PIP spread aloneā€¦it is not enough for their greedy hands. [B]When bucketing their trades they sometimes [U]force[/U] the issue when the market in fact does not reveal the price quote they bucket with. [/B]Their Casino model gives them total illusionary control that lures some traders into their net believing that trading is not gambling.

At the Casino we know we are Gamblingā€¦it is much more honest.

ES

P.S. How many of you take the literal 'Enter at your own Risk" to heart. Be careful with Forexā€¦it is much more dirty than Vegas would ever be allowed to get away with.

Kā€¦ Totally confused.

Iā€™m most assuredly on the ā€œgamblingā€ side.

It sounded to me like you were saying that there was a difference between casinos, and brokers.

Of course the whole thing turns into a ā€œless fillingā€ ā€œtastes greatā€ battleā€¦

Kā€¦ Back to my beer consumption.

*shakes fist at TalonD :stuck_out_tongue:

Ok Tangyā€¦But the thread title is ā€œis Forex Like Gamblingā€ā€¦

For me it is and again it is personalā€¦but I challenge anybody to make a case that Forex is ā€œNot Gamblingā€

ES

At the Casino we know we are Gamblingā€¦it is much more honest

ES

In the last big blowup thread on this very topic, the ones that said it wasnā€™t usually tried to give speculation a reason for existing. And it usually involved religion.

Most religions frown on games of chance.

LOL

ahh weekend entertainment.

Trading is both gambling and not gambling at the same time until itā€™s probability wave is collapsed by an observer.

There! I knew I could find a way to work a little physics into this! :smiley:

Physics Shmysicsā€¦

Itā€™s only gambling until you learn how to win.

After that, itā€™s not gambling, itā€™s boringā€¦

Come on SDC, I donā€™t need much explanation about loses. I used to lose a lot by trading technicaly until I realised that loses are an obligatory part of the trade. So I eliminated the psychology issues from my trading methods and I have incorporated loses into trading. So I search for losing trades and let them run along with winning trades, and finally close everything when winners are more (I find the loser trades before they find me). Thatā€™s why I decided to post in this thread, I believe that the inherent random nature of market can be used for profit.

Good morning everyone.

*shakes fist at TalonD :stuck_out_tongue:

ROFLOL!!! I know how you feel!!! LOL!!!

Itā€™s only gambling until you learn how to win.

After that, itā€™s not gambling, itā€™s boringā€¦

I agree with this too!!!

Seriously though:

First may I say that at least you, ElectricSavant, apparantely have the experience and the knowledge required to contribute to a worthwhile discussion on this topic (for one thing youā€™ve been ā€˜at itā€™ for at least for twenty-nine years longer than me although with all the time, effort, blood, sweat, and tears that Iā€™ve put into this it feels like Iā€™ve been ā€˜at itā€™ for a century now)!!! LOL!!! The previous thread on this very same topic I suspect (or was at least under the impression that) that the thread starter had just wiped out his first (maybe tenth) account and realy was simply trying to be argumentitive (and pis*ed some jolly decent and credible traders off in the process).

For me itā€™s a diffcult one. I donā€™t believe trading is gambling but, then again, maybe itā€™s just because I donā€™t want to perceive myself as a gambler as I think gambling is a dirty business in and of itself (for many years I worked in the IT Department of our largest casino and hotel operator here which is an International Company and I saw first hand what gambling can and does do to a person). Then again: Iā€™ve seen what this business can do to a person too because a while back I ā€˜tankedā€™ in the most spectacular of fashions!!!

Hmmnnnā€¦ Itā€™s really a difficult debate this to be honest. In my post on the subject yesterday I was saying that by having a few decent technical trading systems (speaking for myself here because thatā€™s the only way that Iā€™ve found that I can be profitable) youā€™re increasing the ā€˜oddsā€™ or probability of your trades being profitbale. After some thought about this this very morning: is this not the same thing as playing roulette using a so-called ā€˜systemā€™. One that I know if (which Iā€™m almost ashamed to admit that I did try a few years back) is that one of betting on only red of black. The basic idea is that you wait for red to come up a certain number of times in a row and only then do you start betting on black and double up each losing bet thereafter until black does indeed come up. Is that not the same thing as attempting to increase the ā€˜oddsā€™ in your favour??? OK: the casinos know this so thatā€™s why table maximums were introduced. In my VERY short ā€˜gamblingā€™ ā€˜careerā€™ (which, thank goodness, lasted about one day) I watched red come up on a table EIGHTEEN TIMES IN A ROW. Using the method described you would have reached the table maximum long before black eventually came up. Is this not the same thing REALLY as waiting a certain number of times for resistance or support to be tested??? The ā€˜table maximumā€™ being your account balance??? LOL!!! As I worked for this company for many MANY years you of course get to know ā€˜peopleā€™ and if thereā€™s one thing that I do know and has been proved right in front of my eyes: an experienced croupier can place the ball, if not ON a number sometimes, very darn close to it i.e. at least within a VERY small region of the wheel. It stands to reason that if youā€™re standing and spinning a wheel day in and day out for many years you simply must get a ā€˜feelā€™ for it. THEN AGAIN: is this not the same thing as trading i.e. after many years of trading you wil also get a ā€˜feelā€™ for it (I like to think Iā€™ve developed SOMETHING that resembles that ā€˜feelā€™ when looking at a chart. No I donā€™t base any trades on a ā€˜feelingā€™ but I think Iā€™ve developed enough of a ā€˜feelā€™ to enable me to look at a chart and ā€˜feelā€™ to NOT trade that particular instrument at the time and will then apply my technical trading systems on another chart and instrument). Once again, and after the careful thought Iā€™ve put into this reply so far, Iā€™m unsure myself as to the answer now.

As far as markets being random is concerned though: this is something that I myself cannot agree with. Unfortunately: for everyone that says that markets are not random thereā€™s another chap who will ā€˜proveā€™ the opposite so Iā€™m not sure that weā€™ll ever have the definitive answer or any agreement on this. My own humble opinion (and please gentlemen: Iā€™m really not ā€˜playing my equities and commodities recordā€™ again here I promise you that): if anything, and if markets ARE random, and Iā€™m not saying that they are, my opinion is that FOREX is, letā€™s say, the MORE random of the markets if, as I say, markets are indeed random, which, as Iā€™ve noted, I donā€™t agree they are random. I hope that long but hopefully well puncuated sentence makes sense!!! LOL!!! To explain what I mean: letā€™s take the unfortunate events in Australia of not too long ago. Because of the floods: the prices of coal and corn increased considerably. Arguably: the even itself was random but the movements in price were by no means random. However this even didnā€™t seem to have any impact on the AUD (not that I could see at time anyway). Does this makes sense??? And with equities: youā€™re dealing with ā€˜market sentimentā€™ i.e. ā€˜real peopleā€™ behind those trades. Letā€™s just say that for whatever reason the ā€˜flavour of the monthā€™ is Citigroup. So as soon as this ā€˜flavour of the monthā€™ becomes apparant then traders the world over (equities traders that is) would start buying Citigroup stock and of course, in all probability, youā€™d see a nice rally in the stock. I cannot see that as being random. Does the same apply to FOREX??? I PERSONALLY donā€™t believe so but I think Iā€™ve had this argument before and quite frankly I donā€™t remember the outcome.

Now come to think of it (and this just ocurred to me while typing the above so feel free to tell me Iā€™m talking nonsense here) BUT was FOREX trading ever meant to be a ā€˜trading vehicleā€™??? The reason I ask this (and put in simple laymans terms): all the different countries in the world (before the EUR was introduced anyway) had their own currency. So if I wanted to travel from South Africa to Bulgaria I would go to Rennies Foreign Exchange, exchange my ZAR for BGN, and go to Bulgaria and spend my BGN. If I had any spare change in BGN: upon my return Iā€™d change my BGN back to ZAR. The mere fact that I MAY ā€˜scoreā€™ (or 'lose) on this final transaction by a few cents or so is not really a ā€˜tradeā€™ in the strict sense of the word i.e. itā€™s more my ā€˜luckā€™ (or misfortune). Does what Iā€™m saying here make sense??? The fact that at some point somebody in Wall Street saw this as a ā€˜gapā€™ and a viable trading vehicle doesnā€™t mean that it is INDEED viable (and as many may not know do you know that it is EVEN possible to trade THE WEATHER I kid you not). And please note: Iā€™m only expressing my thoughts as I go along posting here and it is by no means my intention of upsetting FOREX traders. We ALL know how I feel on the subject and hence my own forums as you know.

Is FOREX trading gambling??? Is TRADING gambling??? After all of my very careful input and thought this morning while typing this post Iā€™m afraid Iā€™d have to be honest and say that ā€˜I cannot answer the question and ā€œplead the fifthā€ā€™!!! LOL!!! Let me put it THIS way though (this at least gives ME some comfort): I was fortunate enough, the other night, to be interviewed on one of our national radio stations (I must be doing something right because it would appear that my reputation preceeds me)!!! LOL!!! Essentially I had a short discussion with a senior representative of our South African Revenue Services. It gave me much solace to know that in South Africa: trading of any kind (be it spot FOREX, equities and commodities trading, etc.) is (and I quote) ā€˜like any other businessā€™ in this country and is NOT considered gambling in any way, shape, or form. Profits are (obviously) declarable and losses are claimable (to a point i.e. basically the guy was saying is that if youā€™re a bad trader and incur and claim continual consecutive losses over a period of three to five years then things would be ā€˜looked atā€™ differently). But it means that, aside from losses being claimable, any other expenses incurred in the production of your income (profits) are also claimable against your income (profits) e.g. Internet costs, in my case advertising costs, rent, that type of thing. Just as is the case with any other ā€˜normalā€™ business. So I guess the SHORT answer to the question for ME is that as long as Iā€™m trading in South Africa and have a business in South Africa Iā€™m NOT gambling!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

I promise I wonā€™t start this thread again after it dies away LOL. I wouldnā€™t say Iā€™m at the boring stage yet, Just routineā€¦

I tend to treat my trading like this ā€˜sometimesā€™, I donā€™t pay much attention to pips but do pay attention to floating % gain or lossā€¦ I donā€™t alway stick to that concept but do sometimesā€¦ so say if you have several trades on at once and some are in positive territory and some are in negative territoryā€¦ If the overall total is positive enough then I may just close them all out and take the gain for the day treating them as a basket of trades rather than as individual trades.

I think it was MasterTang who said that most trades are in positive territory at some pointā€¦

Dale mentioned roulette so Iā€™ll have to comment on that but firstā€¦ Dale you missed your callingā€¦ you should write a novel! :slight_smile: just ribbing you there a bit.
Anyway I was selling a roulette system on ebay, thatā€™s the only way you can consistently make money at roulette. Here is the system, bet alternating red and black with a martingale double up. Because that way you avoid loosing when you get a long streak of reds or a long streak of blacks since you are alternating your bets. Viola ! a winning system. Does anyone see where this system will fail? Iā€™ll give the answer in another post so you have time to think about itā€¦