Here is a weekly chart ( 3 yrs data )
Is it in uptrend ?
If you are basing it [B]solely on this chart and no other time frames[/B], then you could say that yes its generally still in an uptrend because it is still progressively moving higher.
You could try drawing a trendline on this chart to give you an idea as to whether is it trending up or down.
As mentioned above if you only look at this one piece of data then you could say that this currency pair is in a long-term uptrend if you draw an ascending support line connection several of the lows. I would advice against taking only one data point and basing your assessment on that. An uptrend can turn into a sideways trend or breakdown etc so you need to account for much more than just one indicator, at least in my opinion. In case you trade price action (which judging by the clean chart you provided you may do) you should look for chart formation as well as candlestick formations to get a better picture of what is going on. There is plenty of trading information and signal a chart provides.
It’s in a long-term uptrend but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should buy right away. You can zoom in to shorter-term time frames to see what the trend is like on those charts.
I’m going to disagree, not for the sake of disagreeing but to bring a different perspective to the chart. If we go back to our definition of an up- trend “higher highs and higher lows” then I just don’t see that.
I think we would all agree that every swing low is higher than previous but look at the swing highs at B and C, both lower. Even at D the price failed to break through the resistance level set at A. Only at E did the price break through a then it turned back even quicker. I think we call that a false break out. So we have a sideways or ranging market. I think the pattern traders would call this an ascending triangle. Maybe some-one skilled at this can confirm. I trade on the 70-tick chart so this is completely at the opposite end of timescale to me
Yes, this instrument is currently in a period of being marked up, and thus is considered an “up trend”.
There is a primary ascending channel structure, with a minor trend line nearly splitting it in half.
Two key pivot points (market off as rectangles @ the peak of the move). Top box is resistance, bottom is support.
There are many ways you can trade this instrument (just looking @ price action, not even considering volume).
- Wait for a rally, and sell @ the midpoint of the channel
- Wait for a rally, go long @ the break of the midpoint of the channel
- Wait for a rally, if the midpoint is broken, get long on a retest of the midpoint
- Wait for a sell-off, get long on the base of the channel
- Wait for a sell-off, get short @ the break of the base of the channel
- Wait for a sell-off, get short @ a breakout retest of the base of the channel
Jake
Oh man, I thought trading a tick chart was hard, I’m all confused :56:
Ok Godzilla, you got some good info there. Definitely some smart ones throwing in their analysis.
But I just want to make a point here about it all.
The trend is relative. Relative to the time frame. And it is on the weekly time frame. We need to remember that our trading should be relative to that also. I take it your gonna do one of two things with this information, of finding out what trend it is. Either you will take a trade with it, or you want to know that for the reason of finding the long term trend for reasons of a shorter time frame (basically the underlying deep current flow). So if you just simply want to take a trade on that and go with the trend, then I hope you plan on keeping that open for quite some time for it to go where you think it’s gonna go. Weeks. Basically set it and forget it for a long time. Or, you might want to just simply know the long term flow. And then you need to scope on in closer and start looking at maybe the daily charts, for a more specific flow.
My whole point here is what do you want out of that information? If it’s a trade to get into, then remember you need to be holding on to that for a long time. Basically you trade time span needs to be relative to the time frame used. If it’s perspective, then you need to be bringing more close up time frames for a diagnosis also.
Everything is relative. And your trades open time need to be relative to the time frame being used.
This is stuff I always have to remember, and keep working on myself.
Mike
What’s confusing? Be more specific and I’ll clarify 
I’m also just learning the ropes so I assume he might be confused by the terminology. Your advice is dependant on where the trend is headed depending on the three trend lines you added to the chart. I’ll try to put what I understood from your post in layman’s terms and please tell me if I got what you meant or completely missed the mark. So this is what I got:
- Wait for people to start buying, sell when the trend hits the mid line
- Wait for people to start buying, buy when it passes the mid line
- Not sure what you meant on this one
- Wait for people to start selling, buy when it hits the lower line
- Wait for people to start selling, sell when it goes below the lower line
- Not sure what you meant here either
Just having a chuckle to myself. Remembering back when I learnt this stuff - if this do that, if that do this etc. Sounds so simple. Yet the simplest answer is infinitely complex. Why? Because we never really understood the question to start with. I agree with Mike here, trade what you see. You see a weekly chart, trade to the weekly chart. And that means trading fundamentally not technically. So the only two technical indicators worth noting are support and resistance, trend doesn’t matter.
What is infinitely complex about selling into rallies / buying into sell-offs around key price inflections?
The term “infinitely complex” should be reserved for those trying to describe the nature of existence and the Universe- not a simple price action strategy which is 100 years old.
I’ve never meet/interacted w/ a trader who solely relies on “fundamentals” to make trading decisions. May you please provide some examples of successful folks who ignore technicals completely?
As for your “trade what you see” comment- this contradicts your argument that fundamentals > technicals. Fundamentals rarely contribute to a 1-1 relationship (i.e. Positive NFP = USD rally). If you’re looking @ a price chart, and considering support and resistance and where price is currently trading, then you are using technical analysis. Not sure what you’re trying to say here- may you please clarify?
Jake
You can word it however you want- I just prefer trading off of obvious levels, and using a few indicators to validate what I’m seeing (stochastic for environment, 20EMA for control, and volume for validation).
If you’re monitoring overall price movement on the H4, drop down to the M5 to find common structures and use those for entry points.
In my experience, the D1 pairs best with H1 for entries and the H4 pairs best with the M5.
Timing entry on the H4 for a setup found on the D1 is sub-optimal in my eyes.
G’day Jake, hope all is well. Like discussing Forex with you, we seem to have a very similar strategy when it comes to speculating yet our perspective of the market and how we execute our strategy seems almost polar opposites. Its like looking at a Rubik cube, I see a green, white and orange side while you see the red, yellow and blue. Hope the readers benefit from this difference in perspective.
You have never meet a trader that relies solely on fundamentals while I don’t know a trader who trades solely technical. I am a discretionary trader but I rely solely on fundamentals to give me market bias signals to choose whom I run with for the day, the bears or the bulls. I won’t even open the charts until I have check the news. You are right in saying fundamentals rarely contribute to a 1 on 1 relationship on the charts but that’s on a daily basis. As far as weekly and monthly charts are concern is all about fundamentals. So I look at the chart in concern, see the uptrend is over and forces are at work trying to reverse the chart direction. Its not the banks, government or institutes influencing this, it is the two nations economic climate that determine this. So if the fundamentals are in place and the chart is showing a pullback why would you wait for a technical signal to enter. This pullback might end tomorrow but it would take weeks before tech indicators catch up.
But as for terms used to describe the nature of existence and the universe well bro, my experience is that one common trait “successful businessmen/women” share is the ability to draw from different fields of study and apply those learnings to their business. And for us to trade successfully we must adopt the market as a business. Example, lets for argument sake view the market as a dynamic system. As a dynamic system it would have to obey the laws of physics, in-particular Sir Isaac Newtons laws of motion. First Law “an object in motion will continue in that motion unless acted on by an external force.” So, simple enough, a bull market will continue to rise unless acted upon by a force. What forces can act to change the markets? Economics (fundamentals), banks (hedge funds and institutes) and government. 2nd law, “the change in direction with be directly proportion to the force applied and the direction it is applied.” This action is clearly displayed on any chart as a pull-back. The rate of change in price can give you hints to which force is acting, banks can change the market over the short term, we see that every day. Governments can influence the markets for a greater period but only economic conditions can reverse the markets. Finally the 3rd law, “for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.” Bit more complex but still translatable. No matter how hard the bears fight to reverse a bull market, the bulls will fight back just as hard to prevent that from happening.
How can we apply that to the chart in question? Well up to point A (on my chart) we see that the market has been on a long term up-trend. After that forces have come into play trying to reverse the direction. This has been a long and sub-stained battle. One that the banks and governments could not play in. The timescale is just to large. We see the bulls constantly fight back trying to recover lost ground but never succeeding (points B, C and D). Finally a point E they break through the resistance level set at point A but it took so much effort that it ran out of puff and the bears took over and in spectacular way. All this points to fundamentals, that what I see, that’s how I would trade. Fundamentally not technically.
That’s just my perspective, each trader must trade according to what it is they see, their perspective. At the end of the day there is no right or wrong.
which chart is the BEST here exhibiting uptrend ?
weekly chart - 7 yrs data
chart 1
weekly chart - 14 yrs data
chart 2
weekly chart - 14 yrs data
chart 3
Weekly chart - 9 yrs data
chart 4
Which is better, apple, blue berry, or peach pie? 
PS thank you, I’ll take a small slice of each…
.
Regarding your latest post Godzilla…
May I please ask to what end are you trying to reach here?
If 20 people gave their opinion on “which chart is a better uptrend” what would you do w that information?
Jake
If 20 people gave their opinion on “which chart is a better uptrend” what would you do w that information?
Thats a very good question.
I am trying to find an answer …am I viewing the same way what others viewing ? … connected thinking …confluence …and much more.
You know its very easy to pick a good one from herd of bads .
But its very difficult to pick a good one from herd of good.
Here all charts are in uptrend…I am trying to pick the best one …this is difficult …I have something in mind though.
validating what the world thinks !
Thanks
Who’s to say what others see is right or wrong. At the end of the day you have to go with yourself on this one.
Who’s to say what others see is right or wrong.
Need not to be right or wrong …
if all traders sees the same thing …then …hmmm
I am closing the discussion here now.
Thanks to all who participated.