Is manual trading coming to an end?

I would not touch a hyper volatile market. That’s just me :confounded:

1 Like

Libzii, yes, hyper-volatile…allows one some practical experience, using pterodactyl2’s soccer analogy, to get green teeth and get a good taste of the grass.

pterodactyl2, when I do test trading EAs, being an ancient programmer (7.8 decades on this giant mudball we all share and call planet Earth), I still use OOP techniques. So, I develop “algorithm chunks” that I can dynamically add to or subtract from the algorithm, while it is trading. I’m also building chunks of candlestick pattern algorithms I can experiment with…getting it closer to a real human trading on the edge of a naked chart and observing the patterns dynamically as they form.

1 Like

A single tweet from Trump supersedes all AI! :sweat_smile:

EA works for a certain period of time, while the market is dynamic. Big banks we’re also doing manual to manipulate the market. I think the forum subject should be the other way around! :slight_smile:

1 Like

@MarvM3 That’s awesome! Yah, OOP is the only way to go; I spend a lot of time re-engineering MQL5 Russian code for ideas. Those guys are crazy awesome programmers. I highly recommend watching videos on the Darwinex YouTube channel about back-testing. IMO, a system should have such a strong edge that you only need to optimize a couple parameters like ATR 1x, 1.5x, 2x for your SL or which EMA you are going to use for your exit strategy. Another thing the guy teaches, the system should be based on some sort of price action not indicators. I also use a custom indicator to test pattern recognition code; I believe that is a good approach that way you can see how well it’s reading a pattern or not.

@Trader02, I think you are right. I watched a Youtube video about how banks manipulate market using something similar to IG Client Sentiment: Forex Trader Sentiment to know where people have their orders and then just knock them out of the market feeding off of Reversal Traders that still believe in the concept of Overbought/Oversold on the larger time frames in the Forex market. The banks will keep things trending for days as long as there is enough dumb money trying to spot the next reversal. We should all be momentum/trend traders in the Forex market because of this according to this video.

Lookup " Best FX Trading Strategies (THE Top Strategy for Forex Trading)" by No Nonsense Forex
It’s about how banks manipulate the market. The TOP Strategy is knowing who your enemy is.

4 Likes

You can if you use the ATR indicator. Search for ATR by No Nonsense Forex on Youtube. I’m not affiliated at all with them.

1 Like

Manual trading will not coming to an end because market is the one who benefit most of manual trading.

1 Like

Yes you are right. Trading psychology is the most difficult part in trading. AL or robot can be good only if you can tweak it every now and than. Everyday market does not behave in a same way. That’s why human is needed.

1 Like

Well said. I learned this over some years playing a game with my two sons called Runescape. With a trading plan I amassed one billion coins over three years. I said I would do it in 18 months but it took 3 years. I did not visit the game as often as I had planned to. But for sure, the majority of people want it, want it now, and will pay a lot more for it than waiting a few days. That is why Amazon Prime is so successful. It’s that instant gratification need to be satisfied. And I think traders need to be exactly the opposite of the masses. And that was my deep preparation for my third return to the pursuit of (currency) trading at which I am determined to succeed.

2 Likes

No matter what the market is always changing. Constantly having to change settings. I have a few of them and belong to special group where everyone is always sharing and comparing settings . I feel too many new traders are relying on EA’s and signals instead of learning Forex.

I decided after awhile I do better manual trading.

In my Opinion

TabiusLee
(I am a Scalper) :heart:

2 Likes

Automated trading has evolved significantly over the year but I don’t think that even in the future it will be possible to be profitable on the basis of automated trading alone. At most, I feel it will take a combination of both automated and manual trading to be successful.

1 Like

I don’t think manual trading is fully going to vanish, although trading bots are taking over. At least in the foreseeable future.

1 Like

Not at all, imho, and I’ve developed a pretty big automated infrastructure.

I think the issue many have is this obsession with technical indicators and the lack of proof of concept that comes with it. Imho it’s completely the wrong way to trade as a human.

The reality is to trade well as a human, you need to put some work in and understand the economy.

With Covid, we’ve had the easiest time we’ve ever had for making a lot of gains with Forex.

Off the top of my head, I’ll give some examples from the past few months (where I’ve gained much more than my system) which have lead to major wins.

  • The news came out in April that the May futures contracts for Oil were going to 0$. The Brent crude at this time was about 30$. The stocks of WTICO were record high, capactiy was full all over the world. Any decent human trader would have put massive shorts on BCO and WTICO. The price dropped to 13$ at one point.

  • Japan on a Sunday night in April announced a Covid emergency. The Yen was high at the time. The dollar was rising as a safe haven. No brainer to short the Yen.

  • May (I think) the EU failed to agree the stimulus. Short the Euro. The following week (or so) they agreed. Go long on the Euro.

  • Summer, US failed to agree stimulus and the USD weakened. Gold started rising as a consequence of the weak dollar and being the only safe haven left. Silver likewise, that was at a massive low.

  • Few days ago Trump announced with Covid. Surely, surely everyone shorted the US30, NASDAQ, FTSE?? Probably not, maybe there was a falling wedge or the MAs hadn’t crossed. God knows.

  • During May a production cut was agreed by OPEC. The NOK was very weak vs the USD and EUR. Go long on it, it’s oil related. Go long on BCO and WTICO as well.

  • Start of September, Boris Johnson announced Brexit stalling. Short the GBP! Especially vs the JPY where it was high.

These are just off the top of my head, but I would say once a week there is always some news that shifts the market massively.

The issue many have is this obession with patterns on the charts and some kind of free ticket to profit. This is made worse by all the teaching materials that encourage high frequency trading based on indicators that if you properly backtest them (over ten years and thirty or so pairs) you’ll find don’t work.

So no, I don’t think it is near an end at all. I think it’s an excuse for humans that aren’t profiting.

Algorithms (including my bot) are good for short term small gains. Humans are better at sentiment analysis and longer term bigger gains.

I think anyway.

1 Like

It depends on the kind of system you are trading. Automated trading systems are helpful but for a long term experience you should rely on manual trading methods.As long as there is competition, manual trading will survive.

1 Like

Some people just trade complete manually and avoid any robots. I don’t think manual trading will ever be replaced by automated trading.

1 Like

I have a friend with PhD in Chemistry. He manage to setup an Artificial intelligence using neural network to self learn forex trading, but the A.I. failed to be consistently profitable. Thus, he does not believe that forex trading is more skill than luck. He believes that the market is random and there is no way to profit from it from a long term perspective. He thinks that traders who make money from it are simply lucky.

I really wonder, if someone with such high intelligence and education level deem forex trading as unsolvable. What are we all doing? Pure Gambling?

If an A.I. can’t solve forex trading, why would manual trading come to an end?

1 Like

I’ll bite.

A NN is not applicable to this problem (you didn’t specify which kind of NN was applied in the tests, so I’ve used the general term)

For a NN to work it needs to be trained on data that will be representative of the future. Like images, speech recognition etc.

By its nature, the past is not repeated in Forex.

Plus you need to be good at selecting, normalizing and training data. Was this all done perfectly?

There are other ML concepts that are much more applicable - specifically those used for decision making.

Look at Driverless cars. They use a lot of other ML techniques to make their decisions.

SVM and Random Forests, for one.

NN are not all of AI, by any means.

FWIW I’ve tried most of the above.

Edit it add:

Where ML would be very good is sentiment recognition - for example you have a bot reading twitter news feeds and can pickup the market sentiment quickly, making decisions based on that.

You could look at past news feeds and correlate these to movements.

2 Likes

So did you manage to get an A.I. to trade forex with profitable result?

1 Like

What do you mean by ‘AI’? It’s like saying you’re a specialist in ‘Surgery’.

If you mean something that decides alone and is profitable? Yes.

How long will that last? No idea :slight_smile:

2 Likes

envy

1 Like

Is the emoticon showing green with envy? I used to think PhDs were clever, but my nephew currently doing his PhD on delivery systems for cancer, diabetes and other treatment drugs relates to me some horror stories of how stupid they can be (not about their subject specialism, but about life that surrounds them like “any other topic outside of their specialism”. So that supports my theory that if you want your toilet fixed, ask a plumber not an engineer. If you want to be successful in Forex, ask a trader who has been around the block for a couple of decades, not a rocket scientist.

2 Likes