Let me start by saying that I am a Newbie and I have no hesitation to ask for help when I am unsure. I would like for someone to confirm what I have been watching and advise me. I have been looking at NZD/JPY for about 10 weeks. I have watched it progress upward with some slight dips to the short side occasionally. I have used the rules of the Cowabunga system on my demo account just as Topgun suggested. I am now seeing a sharp drop since 10/14shortly after the CPI for NZD came out -0.5%. The NZD/JPY and NZD/USA show the same drop pattern. These pairs have shown a drop of over 300 pips since the news on 10/14. Using the Cowabunga rules I was able to catch a few of these pips at the unset of the drop. This leads me to my questions.
What would have been a good exit stratagy to gain more on this short?
Is it a good idea to get back in and continue the ride?
Am I wrong for appling the Cowabunga system to the NZD pairs( I have not seen the NZD pairs discussed for this system)
would anyone be interested in joining me in this thread to discuss the Pairs for NZD?
What reasons are there for not even looking at the NZD pairs?
Thanks in advance for any comments to my questions
83
OK I will do my best with some of your questions. Presumably you have a reason for preferring NZ crosses (a kiwi not wanting to think about the rugby perhaps!!). They would not be highly favoured because of low liquidity, high volatility and wide spreads. That does not of course mean that they cant be profitable and developing a niche in this business might be very smart. If you have tested and Cowabunga seems to work then thats a good start and the principles should work in any cross that has some dependable trending characteristics (so you would probably avoid range bound crosses like EURCHF although never actually looked at it). Exit strategies are where you make your money and so you could apply any that make sense. In general I look to take half my profit at 1R and trail the rest but if there is a major SR level coming up may well exit all at that. It would be worth you looking at NZ behaviour around key levels so you can get an idea what to look for
Tonymand,
I appreciate your comments and I do agree with your statements. I have noticed the volitiliy of the NZ crosses but they tend to profit very quickly using the Cowabunga system once you get a signal to enter. The spread generally covers shortly after the entry point which I thouhgt was a plus. I love the idea of taking half of the profits at the 1R(I had been doing that initially but I think that I began to get greedy and after watching my profits turn around I began to panic) I think it would be a good Idea to heed your advise I will practice this immediately. I am partial to the NZ pairs because of the times that they seemed to be most active. You mentioned the behavior, is there any reading or website that you can suggest that will clue me in on some of the tendancies? By the way, I have never witness a Rugby match, I have always done better with pads on.
83
Not really, I was more meaning by watching these things in real time on your favoured pairs. I should have guessed by your handle that you were really N American but did just wonder whether you were a Kiwi in disguise, but if you have never watched the great game then clearly you cant be! Best of luck with your endeavours