Is technical analysis enough?

Actually the question is not directly what type of analysis needed, His main point nd goal here is to know what is needed to be added to all he had learnt to be profitable.

Couldn’t agree more, for me money is not the end goal but to live life freely without many troubles, (unfortunately a big part of doing that is driven by money), therefore it does help to have money.

I do also agree if you can suppress emotions it will help, but say (and I hope not ever) we experience something traumatic / devasting, this could affect our ability to trade without emotion. Personally, that’s why I feel it’s beneficial to acknowledge them, be cautious of it, and try to act impartially without it. I think ego and over confidence have ruined more accounts than fear and doubt

1 Like

If you’ll actually acknowledge emotion in your trading no matter how little it may be, the fear will still be there smiling at you which will make you eventually a victim of what you’ve been trying to avoid. You’ve to become a robot to be a consistent trader… A robot have no feeling or a single Sting of emotion :100: To eliminate the emotional risk of trading, you have to neutralize your expectations about what the market will or will not do at any given moment or in any given situation. You can do this by being willing to think from the markets perspective. Remember, the market is always communicating in probabilities. At the collective level, your edge may look perfect in every respect; but at the individual level, every trader who has the potential to act as a force on price movement can negate the positive outcome of that edge. To think in probabilities, you have to create a mental framework or mind-set that is consistent with the underlying principles of a probabilistic environment. Says Mark

I think the big struggle as far as emotions go is that during the fight or flight response it’s almost impossible to override our reactions.

Our executive reasoning goes out the window and we become slaves to our bodily reactions.

That’s why I always have issues when it’s put forward that ‘we need to manage our emotions’ - it’s great in theory but real hard in practice.

The military go through endless practice in war like situations so they do not choke under the real thing.

In trading we have to attempt a similar thing.

Some suggest only ever trading with real money, others like @steve369 suggest trading your demo exactly the way you would trade a live account.

Both have merits - the problem with starting off with real cash (even with small amounts) is that if you mess up you start the slow descent into trading trauma and revenge trading.

The question is how as beginners can we solve this dilemma.

I’ve spent a good portion of my life reading up on mysticism and the esoterical.

One of the predominant themes is that in order to have a thing you have to be it first.

In simpler terms you can’t ever be wealthy if you have a poverty consciousness.

How does this relate to trading?

Easy.

Money is so important for most of us because we never feel we have enough of it

That is the root cause of all our bad trading habits. If somehow there was a way to trick our mind that we already had enough of the stuff then our trading habits would improve and emotions would not be a problem.

It would be interesting to test theory out on a child - children have not yet developed this angst around money - just give them the trading rules and see what happens.

Food for thought

6 Likes

Grodtfx, so basically, (as Mark said), accept that every position no matter how good it looks or how perfect it matches your trading plan, when you enter it always has the possibility of losing and you should not become attached to any individual trade.

This is also why it helps that if you know that your strategy’s expectancy is positive, sometimes you need to ride out the bad runs because it will turn around eventually.

I guess we’re close to the same principle, but will have to agree to disagree marginally on emotions but agree on the lower the emotion the better?

Johnscott31, I can tell you’re a seasoned ‘veteran’ of forex and very knowledgeable. However when you say it comes down to fight or flight syndrome and it’s impossible to not act on our reactions / impulses, I disagree and think it is possible to keep a clear head.

If we were aware of these in the beginning and noticed them when trying to ‘override’ rational thinking, we could much easier separate ourselves from the impulse and make the right decision. As you said I think the army / marines tried a similar practise called Mind fitness training in order to make the right decision in high pressure situations. Which does have similarities with trading

Smile gotcha!
Yes the lower the emotion the better actually I’m a TA analyst which makes me start thinking in % to be emotion free and enjoy my peace of mind while swing trading, let’s say I open a live account and start it with 10$, put 0.01 in work for few weeks Then higher it at 0.03 or 0.04 until 100$, I have mastered that way since I’ve started and it’s still the same way for $10,000 live accounts for me, that way you gain consistency and compounding get easier. I’m always sure of my risk before I take a trade and reach agreement with my mind the money I trade with is the money I can afford to lose and won’t get hurt so with that mindset in market of uncertainty I’m aware of, tell me how I will feel betrayed or down emotionally if I lose the trade? See a robot is not much better 🤷🏼

It is possible to keep a clear head and some are better at it than others, probably by just being more effective and self aware individuals

Traders like Paul Tudor Jones took trading like a duck to water - I just think most of us are not as blessed - which is born out in the fact that we find the emotional side so difficult.

There is a book out there ’ The hour between dog and wolf’ that goes real in depth into our bodily reactions whilst under trading conditions.

Worth a read if you don’t mind going down the rabbit hole of bio chemistry.

1 Like

Grodtfx, it’s clearly a very effective strategy for you and you know completely what you need to do in every scenario and I respect that! :raised_hands:

But what if your initial trade was the $100, do you not have the regret of missing out on the higher profits? If you can say that that emotion doesn’t cross your mind then congratulations you really have robot mindset :wink:

1 Like

If my account is $10 I will never have a feeling of missing out on higher profit lol cause I’m thinking in % and I don’t expect 2% to give more than my risk reward which I’m contented with before I put on the trade! Lol to answer your question the best way I will add psychological 0000 behind those numbers to make me feel better if at all any feelings of I might have earn more with bigger account slide in but I will still remember I have the bigger account sometimes and blow it up so why won’t I be happy with my wins cause it’s little amount, I knw it worth it and ok with my risk reward, imagine not been cool with trades like these cause the amount is little?


When you’re disciplined enough you’ll understand what you’re doing is a goal you set for yourself or the situation life put you in which might be the reason why you’re trading the $100 account, you shouldn’t hurt yourself by thinking you might have make more money with bigger account that’s what stress your emotion for things you don’t have control over :blush: Compounding really do worth it cause it help you gain consistency and build a robot heart which will make you more successful by the time your $100 account is grown and get you addicted to trade the bigger cash the same way you’ve been coming. Don’t let forget thAt To be very successful in anything in life it takes time only those who give it the time smile at the end :blue_heart:

2 Likes

I think one of the least talked about problems is overestimating the emotional control that we have.

I know I’ve suffered from it constantly - the way I overcome FOMO myself is by using a trailing stop.

Target profits never worked for me personally.

None of us are rocks emotionally when money is at stake - three losers in a row is enough for most to start doing the opposite of what they should.

6 Likes

Yes all fact here mate! But where we make most mistake in trading is we start live account when we’re not ready! The other problem is how do we know we’re good to start or when to start and with what amount to start with. Most people don’t put all these into consideration before opening a live account, they open account cause they see their winning rate on demo knowing quite well there emotion won’t be able to push enough courage to take or hold that type of trade when their money is involved still they feel they’re cool and good to go 🤷🏼 You see to me one of the factors of approaching Forex or cryptocurrency trading the right way is starting with depositing only money you can afford to lose which won’t affect your upkeep or your need in one way or the other by doing this you’ll be in the right frame of mind to take the right risk and obey some major trading rules which won’t let you be limited to a breakeven winner for years cause you can’t afford to lose your money so trades you should be winning happily keep hitting BE before TP! Your emotions will keep hurting no matter how hard you try to be emotions free, None of us are rocks emotionally when money is at stake yes still Your risk will determine how relaxed you can be

Its quite dependent on what type of a trader you are and what exactly is your strategy. Having said that, technical analysis is no doubt too important and crucial for any trade, but having a good hand on emotional control and keeping oneself updated with any related stuff is necessary too.

1 Like

Well then and according to several news report The UK prime minister threatened to leave the negations table and talks will no longer be extended due the “unfavorable” offer made by the EU an all this was weighing on pound, so one of those days I made a sell being in more than 20 pips in profit when a top UK official said talks will be extended if necessary and a deal could be reached, there was a spike and the everything turned the other way round.

heyy @steve369 kindly elaborate or share any content on the ichimoku strategy. Thanks in advance!

1 Like

Get this a lot. You think you’re on top of it and then you get curveballed by emotional attachment you didn’t realise you had.

3 losses in a row would normally mean I walk away for the day becuase as you say it does start to gnaw away at you.

2 Likes

Agreed , that’s were the mixture of both Technical and Fundamental analysis becomes absolutely essential! good to hear it from one who has experienced the lack of fundamental… tnx :smiling_face_with_three_hearts:

Lol

Not only did I start with real money to begin instead of demo.

But I also quit my day job and moved half way across the world to chill on a beach too!

No kidding - no wonder I found it so difficult for so long!

2 Likes

Read How to become a Bulletproof trader by Steve Ward, or watch it on YouTube. One main theme is that you can train your mind to deal with psychological events. You only need a mentor to help you!!

2 Likes

Hi - I’m hoping to write an Ichimoku article for Johnscott31 blog page in the new year, which is part of my overall trading strategy. Two spoilers (today) I use are Ichimoku parameters of 8 -22 -44 which is designed for a 5 day trading week, not 6 days as was the case in Japan a long time ago. Also my MACD is set to 3 -10 16 which has been thoroughly back tested by gurus on Youtube, which indicates this setting shows the most profitable entry/exit trend targets - but don’t take my word on that - see if it works for you.

My tip for 2021 is that a good strategy should have the same win ratio long and short. A leeway of 4% either way is excellent. My Ichimoku strategy trades are spot on - probably the main reason for it’s profitable longevity over the decades…

2 Likes