Is technical analysis enough?

Try your technical analysis skills on a demo account for at least 6 months and you would be able to answer this question yourself :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

I guess it’s just the difference between a newbie who just wants to make some profits sometimes and a trader who wants to trade for living.
i’m a trade who wants to trade for living so yeah it does make sense that i have to consider more things than just simple technical analysis.

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Most beginners start with technical analysis and many as they progress don’t feel the need to expand their skill set beyond that.

There is nothing wrong with sticking just to technicals.

But…

Using technicals on their own is like putting one foot forward in the dark - you get to where you are going but sometimes you bump into unexpected things.

Having an understanding of fundamentals too is like trading with the lights on - you can see around you and accidents are avoided (mostly).

The problem with fundamentals is they are so subjective so I like to filter my thesis through the COT report.

While the COT isn’t really a fundamental indicator it aggregates many of the largest players who know all there is to know about fundamentals.

It stands to reason that if you are not so smart it pays to follow those who are - that is what the COT can do for you.

You get to know in advance which markets the largest moves are likely to come.

Right now the COTs are flashing two warning signs.

The dumb money has the largest short position in the dollar in 11 years.

The dumb money has the largest short position in the 30 year bond ever!

When COT readings are so extreme the move is usually strong in the opposite direction.

Problem with the COT is these reading can be in play for months before they are rectified with market moves.

In the COT for every long there is a short and you can therefore bet that the banks and broker dealers are taking up positions in the dollar and also betting on lower interest rates.

Usually this style of positioning occurs right before market crashes, solvency crisis or liquidity crisis.

Given what’s been happening with COVID and the general economy it doesn’t take a genius to figure out something big is going to happen over the next few months

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As @Johnscott31 mentions, fundamentals are subjective, especially bearing in mind that a currency pair is actually 2 currency movements. So the impact of something on one currency may well be equally significant on the other, and the result is muted. EURGBP is a typical case of this throughout the whole Brexit saga. What is good for the GBP may also be good for the EUR - or not!

But it is both wise and interesting in the broader sense to follow markets and countries and current events. It adds personal value to trading as a business and as a hobby.

But there is no reason why one cannot comfortably combine the two by having an interest in the fundamentals (and inevitably forming some kind of view) but only trading on the view when one’s technical picture suggests the market is now acting in the same direction. I.e. when the other market participants are actually putting their money on it.

TA takes away the subjectivity and sharpens the timing whilst leaving you free to study the world to your heart’s content and for inspiration on other trade ideas.

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Working on your psychology will take you your entire life.

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  • Go write a very simple strategy for yourself and get a lot of back tests from it.
  • In the next step, check the results and go into the market and record your first failure.
  • Gather the lessons you can only learn from the market and monitor yourself every day.
  • From the information you get about yourself, you can help yourself every day to get closer to the desired results in the back test.
  • The key to market success is summed up in four words: never give up - know yourself - be organized - take a lot of back tests. :muscle: :muscle: :muscle:
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Man, that’s one thing which was the most difficult for me to handle in the start. Controlling emotions is just not easy.

Well said mate! :pray:t3:

Just technical analysis is not enough. You have to make a grip on everything that is fundamental, technical and sentiment of the market. When you will be strong in all the three areas only then you will become a profitable trader.

It is all about making profits. If you are making good profits with technical analysis, there is no need to spend time on other things as well. You can simply stick to what works for you. This is the ultimate mantra that I follow.

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It’s not easy to trade forex. You have to take care of a lot of things rather than just focusing on improving your technical analysis skills. It would be nice if you focus on a number of aspects.

But sometimes the technical analysis can fail at the time of any major news. So, you cannot just sit and avoid the other market factors.

Both technical analysis and fundamental analysis are important parts of my trading. I don’t think that any of them is better than the other. They both are different and it is up to the trader’s style of trading to decide which one they want to use. But for a trader, the knowledge of both is important.

To become a successful and professional trader, you need to know how to do fundamental and technical analysis both.

Both TA and FA are important. Once you understand it, you can start trading with a micro account to know where you stand.