Interesting stuff… so the portfolio makes profits at zero risk?
2.40 am posts mate? Looks like you’re settling into babies sleep pattern. Never mind, it does get better over the months, at least until she starts teething!
Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. You have my sympathy 
Haha you are correct, I was cuddling her to sleep and typing one-handedly 
Slept six hours now, so I am ready for the day! Wheel in the Wheeler!!
To truly “be” delta neutral requires an immense amount of adjustments- adjustments inclusive of intensive capital, incredibly low commissions, and speed. I try to remain as neutral as possible, so we can make money up and down, but sometimes you just get so far out to one end.
Really, portfolio delta is just a way to theoretically plot out potential future movements in any of the major indices and how that’d have an impact on your positions. It’s not perfect, but for equities/options it definitely is a requirement to understand. I use it more as a monitor, if anything.
It sounds immensely complicated! I am definitely leaving that one well alone Good luck to you, and
kudos for being so clued up on something so impressive-sounding!
Haha…ok
There’s a big gap between being clued up on something, and actually being able to implement it effectively though, so… lol.
I know the feeling
makes perfectly sense. sorry im tiping so little lately but i have to restrict to my phone to tipe. im on a trip and with my surface for some reason i am not able to login into babypips anymore, only with the home computer and phone.
about banks (which you posted a few days ago) i have a lot to say but i cant tipe a thousand word in a smart phone my finger is going to burn. so if you allow ill post my opinion on it when im home again at my desktop.
i entered a short on the dow jones yesterday and didnt turn out to be a good idea so far. if by tomorrow i dont get any decent results im out untill i see the next opportunity sonewhere around 18150 points.
its just annoyingly slow these days to trade. june really is a damn slow month. i cant wait for “panic-july” and “panic-august”
It will be a scream… 
How are you? How is the baby?
Did you see those market moves yesterday afternoon?
Here is the volume for S&P500 e.mini futures and daily chart… Look at that selling volume…
I also looked at last night’s COT release
and leveraged funds are heavily shorting
the S&P500 (whereas institutional traders
are net-long):
CFTC Commitments of Traders Short Report - Financial Traders in Markets (Futures Only)
I think this is the real deal…
What do you think?
August crash + 5 months = January crash + 5 months =
June crash?
yes im pretty sure aswell sharing your opinion. were going for a new setback to (dow jones in my case) 15500 again like weve seen thw last 12 months 2 times already.
im in short positions since wednesday already when i asked you about your opinion about the s&p (remember?).
but my IDEA/opinion is that its first a setback of 5-7% (17250) and then its going to hit the 18.000 again on hopes of a new QE programm (like 6 months ago). its too early for a major setback of 15-20%. a major setback im exoecting in july or beginning of august.
the signs are too weak at the moment. i smell no panicing and dont see any source for panich within the next two weeks.
if theres one thing i learned then that indexes (and especially USA indexes) truly need pamic and fright to move down with a movement that you can use to make money with it. “mass profit taking” doesnt exist in blue chip stocks.
my weekly chart tells me its undecided and still looking for a swing low before it can brake it in a panic and make a nice down movement.
sorry i mist correct myself. we have seen 3 setbacks to 15500 in the last 12 months. not 2 only.
dangerous sign that its simply unable to brake the 18000 in a secure and sustainable manner.
to be honest what i read out of this 12 monts is what Livermore would explain as “slow controled crowd distribution”. big players distributing/unloading the stocks to the crowd/$uckers without putting the price too low in too short time.
and they got all rights to do so. the stocks are 30-40% higher valued then they were before the crash of 2008. there simply is no space to go up anymore without any influence from governments. abd the big players know that better then we do. but the panic is not there yet. the crowds need to be put in panic mode first and then the crash.
right now i see a much bettter potencial for a great down movement in Oil to be honest.
Trying to call a top on US equities? They say don’t try to catch a falling knife- but also, don’t stand in front of a rolling train.
Where are global investors going to seek yield right now while they ride out negative rates (and the subsequent impact) outside of the US? The US market is the only “safe” place right now. If that collapses, what then?
Look, I’m right there with you, but, I’ve been wrong since FEB. The S&P has been straight up since.
Here’s how I’m currently (rather than currently, maybe I should use the word [B]stubbornly[/B]) positioned:
Long XAU via UGLD
Short USD / Long NZD
Short US Financials (Berkshire, JPM, Wells, BofA) via XLF puts
Short US Tech Sector (FB, MSFT, AAPL - bearish on all 3) via XLK puts
Long volatility (VXX ETN)
Short S&P 3X (leveraged SPXS)
The puts are pretty lazy trades, but, I have my reasons.
Also, have a straddle option trade on TIVO that I let run past my profit target and now has moved against me. Doesn’t fit the theme, but for full disclosure…
So, don’t get me wrong- I couldn’t be any better positioned for a crash. But, what we’re trying to predict is a black swan event - an event that may take years to materialize.
Keeping an eye on pretty much EVERYTHING @ this point for a signal.
Sovereign debt levels are at extremes (BUND, JGBs…scary).
Euro banks are failing. XAU is rallying.
Brexit.
FED rate hike?
China.
38k NFP??!?
Do I need to continue?
Oh, and take a look @ the US 10 YEAR! (TNX ETF).
Yes Fu, there is a song that often resonates in my head when thinking of stocks, I think PMH might know it, but likely before his time, a girl with short blonde hair sang it.
Bit of a sell off on Thurs and Fri, but nothing more than guys/gals being nervous and taking profit, often happens when price is in white space with no target and a good bull run early in the week.
Hello Peterma, you mean ‘The only way is up?’… Yes, you told me about it on these forums before ;))
Jake (Forexunlimited), I just finished listening to this interview and it could honestly have been talking about me and my GBP/NZD trade:
Chat With Traders: “7 Components of Profitable Trading Systems | Andrew Falde, SMB Capital”…
I have a lot of learning to do, it seems…
…guilty as charged… I am calling a top on US equities…
Risky, silly, hopeful, unprofessional strategy…yes, but
I have to see this through to see, psychologically and
financially, how the ‘sit and wait’ approach works in
practice…
Waiting for a black swan event may indeed take years,
but then it could take just months: there is no harm being
in the trade already when it happens, rather than jumping
in when that 2,000 pip move is over…
As I do not spend all day in front of the charts, I am
trialling a long-term approach where time is the edge,
not entry or price level…
I am not trying to be right but I am trying to find a
style that works for me…
How profitable it will be, only time will tell…
Yes PMH, it was in relation to the S&P, when guys, some very reputable, were saying that doom and gloom, or was it the ‘perfect storm’ was just around the corner.
It’s merely a human reaction, if price is high then it must come down, even the Monte Carlo Fallacy was based on that same thinking.
The truth is that since referring to Yazz we have seen good sells on stocks, but buying has been that little more comfortable.
Yes, the signs may be too weak for a 20% move down on equities, say, but I want to be in if it happens… I really do not mind waiting…
As Jake says there are a number of catalysts awaiting for panic selling, and we just have no idea which one will spark the fuel… There may even be something unforeseen by all…
PMH, just saw the next post, time can be a great edge, but in stocks the probability lies to the upside when coupled with time, even after the two biggest black days time healed to the upside.
If I were to position with time as an edge to the downside then I have to discard the probability factor and use the hope factor - hope can work, things can happen, but it just doesn’t feel right, it feels like being on the back foot.
It’s good to think about these things, so many thks for thinking out loud.
Peterma, I do not have half of your knowledge and trading sense, so I cannot really say much in answer to what you say… Nobody taught me trading and it is like grappling blind through thick woodland, finding the path… I am getting some things right, many things wrong, and in some ways I am still an absolute beginner, even after nearly four years since my first encounter with forex trading…
I wish I had someone telling me not to waste time on all the things that are not going to work, but in the end I had to.figure it out myself, which of course is more time consuming and at times quite soul-destroying…
That is where I am at…