Is the next stock market crash imminent?

You are always so right…

I think trading on hope alone is a very poor strategy,

yet here I am, doing just that…

So much soul-searching, for so little reward…

At times this business of retail trading can be

very ungrateful, unloving, and ‘illogical’… Coming

into it with too little training and capital is just

a bit silly…it is like pretending to be Serena Williams

just by dressing like her, or pretending to be

Evel Knievel by purchasing his helmet…

Nobody told me.it would take hours, hundreds

and thousands of them, to even begin to understand

myself as a trader, and myself as a trader in relation

to a market that cannot be predicted by anyone

Thanks PipMeHappy, now I’ve got to try to sleep even though I’ve got an image if you dressed like Serena Williams…brrrrr, sends shivers down my spine just typing the words


(as per Peterma’s mention)…

:open_mouth:

That does sound like a true vision of horrors haha

Best leave Serena Williams to Serena Williams :slight_smile:

Goodnight, Eddie… I best go to get some kip before

my baby wakes up again :slight_smile:

hope is the only force that drives anyone to trade/ invest at all. i wont go into details as i know that u know what i mean. so dont underestimate.

god, tiping on forum with phone really isnt a joyfull experience.

F - Don’t be too hard on yourself now. We’ve all had our own journeys when it comes to trading, and we all must find our [B][U]own [/U][/B]path. It’s a process that takes an undefined amount of time from individual-to-individual and you’re simply @ a (amongst thousands) cross-roads in your journey.

Regarding the link to that podcast, here’s my opinion:

  1. That Aaron dude is…“ok”…@ interviewing people. No idea how he has access to that caliber of trader, but his conversational skills really aren’t that great. He asks a question, lets the guy talk (which is the best part) then just responds with a simple- ‘ok, that’s great’. Then, asks the next question. Really not my format, but I’ve listened to his stuff from time-to-time. Good material for the most part.
  2. The dude from SMB capital. Read up their reviews on glassdoor. They’re just like any other prop firm. Put up $5k to trade, $5k to learn, and they take 50% of your profits if you’re lucky to survive. [U] Of course[/U] he’s going to say how important it is to gain “professional coaching” to take your trading “to the next level”. His specialty is real estate w/ a focus on marketing…he knows how to sell his services.

Just to expand on that a bit further…I always find it hillarious when you get a talking head on CNBC here in America, talking about how an ETF (that they happened to create and manage) is a strong buy. [B]OF COURSE[/B] it’s a strong buy!! I swear, I watch CNBC pretty religiously, and 90% of the time you’re going to see some guy from some bank pushing some product that they make a market for. It’s quite funny sometimes.

Look, @ the end of the day, it’s all about perseverance. You’re a smart guy, and as long as you stick with it and trust yourself, things will continue to click. I’m not saying that I’ve figured it out, b/c we all still learn new things every day and the market landscape is constantly evolving. Yes, the majority of crap out there on the web is that- crap. But, you know that if you dig hard and deep enough, you’ll find a gem every now and then. Add those gems up over time, and you got yourself a solid base to rely on. And, Yes- it is true, the overwhelming majority of people simply will not survive and have absolutely no idea what they are doing. They’re lazy, under-funded and looking to hit a home run on every trade w/ their ego @ stake. But, that doesn’t mean that you can’t come out on the other side.

There are some legitimate points made in that podcast that I 100% agree with. 2 primarily:

  1. Trying to predict direction for any type of instrument is ultimately going to lead to ruin. There really is no denying that. The “if” - “then” approach has been around forever, and that’s the smartest way to approach trading. It’s [U]exactly what I do[/U].
  2. On direction- I agree that the average retailer will have the best edge selling premium via the US equities market- again, pretty tough to deny that. The problem is: You need a good chunk of capital, you [B]need [/B]to have a deep understanding of how options work. Why? Because you’re going to be writing naked puts and you better know what the hell you’re doing.

I actually prefer trading options over anything else really because I’m more of a “math” guy and don’t like trying to predict a direction TBH. I love the numbers and the challenges they bring, rather than just looking at candlesticks. I personally feel that options trading (from the retail end) is where the “guys who made it” end up. You can draw upon so many experiences from trading the markets in your past via charts, order flow, fundamentals, that all apply to supporting an options position. And, again, selling premium is one of the most profitable strategies out there.

One final thing I’ll say.
There’s a [I]reason [/I]why we’re all here.

There’s a [I]reason [/I]why we may take a break for a few weeks/months/years but ALWAYS come back. Always.
That [U]attraction [/U]to the markets (whatever it is) is very strong in some of us, and, I feel that as long as that [B]fire [/B]burns, you owe it to yourself to feed it w/ as much oxygen as possible until it goes out on its own.

Fuel that [B]fire[/B].

Humbly,
Jake

Beautiful post, Jake, beautiful!!

Thank you, from the heart…

Great post, Jake…

In episode 1 of ‘Chat With Traders’, Aaron explains why he launched his podcast:

Also, there is an episode with a reverse interview (where Aaron gets asked questions)

here: YouTube .

I agree, his interview style involves no challenge of the guests in a big way, more

of an open door to let them speak with prompts… In a way, the guests he has chosen

are all very good at telling interesting stories about how they started trading, so it

works quite well, actually, with them being the main focus.

…The start of a momentous couple of weeks is upon us!!

And, will you look at this big red candle opening from

our beloved S&P500!!


Very interesting thoughts from all of you. I think the next market crash is imminent, but it wil have less negative effects and they will take longer to occur.

PMH hows ur short going? its the half time now.

Hey Turbo! Thanks for asking…

In the last 24 hours my S&P500 short has gone back in the money and is approaching the 200-pip mark…

My FTSE100 short is also back in the money after months and so is my more recent NZD/JPY short…

Three out of five trades back in the green…

Amazing…

I also managed to finish 172nd out of 3717 participants in a Valutrades/MyFXbook trading contest from 1st May, thay finished this morning, growing the 10k demo account to +60% (equity)… I enjoyed doing that :slight_smile:

How are you? Managing to spend time with your baby? I just gave mine a bath and she decided to have a sh@t in the bath…I burst out laughing when she added a squirty piss to the mix…now she is happy haha

haha nice one i never had poo and pee in my bath yet :smiley:
everything is ok. bit annoyed/bored as her parents came over to visit a week so im climbing up the walls pf annoyance but im trying not to show :wink:

but luckily they all leave in few days on vacation then im free for a month and can clear out my mind for a while.

trades all gone bad. even thou i predicted the direction 100% correct from june 8th i only lost money instead of earning. a 400 pips move in which i was perfectly positioned from the very top and all i do is loose.

Where you stopped out on a retracement of the move?

Is your wife’s family a little too intense? As you say, it will be.over soon :slight_smile:

Sorry about your losses…were you ‘Dowing’ or ‘Daxing’?

was on dow.im avoiding the DAX like its dog poo on street. no chance in touching that thing.

no i closed in nice profits first to buy back later. then i couldnt find any entre onlybad ones and lost the surplusses. closed where i didnt plan out of a “idea” and 500 points before i planned. if you ask me now obto “why” my answare would be “no damn clue why i did thst, had no real reason at all”

having really big psychological trading issues lately. i think i need a brake.

Maybe you are experiencing that phase where you think you are in control of your rational decisions

but there is a lot of distraction from issues like a build-up of work pressure or family life events, which

are secretly chipping away at your ability to stay focused (but you think you are still in control)…

I noticed that it takes me a while to recognise not when I am stressed (like, agitated and irritable)

but when I am losing focus in making rational decisions, because the lack of focus is hidden and

the causes have been building up ‘behind the scenes’ in my brain, and you think you are coping

but actually someone needs to step in and help you, e.g. take you forcibly on a holiday somewhere,

and if you really cannot afford the time/price, then you need to step away from potentially stressful

activities (in this case, for example, trading)…

I am nobody to give out advice, especially not to a great guy like you, so forgive my writing these

thoughts here.

Haha, can really tell you two guys have young families, all the mentions of ‘poo’ and ‘pee’.
Thank god those days are well behind me :slight_smile:

Best wishes guys

To me, mindset comes before all else.
If you’re not in the proper “mindset” to trade, then you are simply going to be a market donator.

Revenge, fear, greed, sadness, over-confidence; all emotions that can impact your decision making process and negatively impact your equity. Not saying its possible to completely erase the impact of emotions, but, if you’re consciously stating you’re having psych issues right now, then you absolutely need to walk away. Maybe even get flat if possible.

Bund = Negative
VIX > 21
US 10Y < 1.7
XAU ++

FEAR?

Haha, yes, there is a lot of ‘poo’…

BabyPoops :slight_smile: