then what are you arguing with me for? Aren’t we saying the exact same thing!?
I’ve read books on Monte Carlo simulation that state that position sizing will have no effect on positive expectancy on negative sum games.
That had better not be another attempt at evasiveness! There are already a lot.
If your information is worth its meat, then by all means produce it here! Don’t be like so many others who say ‘I have this’ ‘I have that’ but o know because of this and that and grandmas coming to town I’m not producing it nyeh nyeh nyeh. Been there, done that, and this is just about to sound like another catholic excuse.
Worst comes to worst, if I am illogical and can’t ‘understand’ your “data”, then I am going to make a fool of myself interpreting your data and then you can have a field day in winning this debate. Surely as an awesome trader, you can see this is a win win situation for you!?
yes. without dividend reinvestment, its only 10.7%.
CPI
I am aware of that, but that is only true for short term invesments. As a forex trader, you are looking to grow wealth over the long term, so you have to measure the average bond yield over a longer period of time.
For example, the current 90 day T bill rate is 2%, maybe lower! So at this point, any investment, even a fixed deposit in Australia, will be considered high yield!
No. I think we both agree that indicators have no predictive value. I however am saying that you dont require predictive value in order to trade profitably.
This is correct. Position sizing cannot compensate for a negative expectancy. As your monte carlo testing shows you might get lucky occassionally, but over a large enough number of trials the true expectancy will be revealed. After years of research, tens of millions of backtests and 8 years staring at a screen all day I think I understand enough about these markets and my chosen edge to average a few pips per day. I’m quite heavily diversified systems wise, and in any given year, a few will make losses, but the majority are profitable, and therefore your comments about negative expectany are mainly irrelevant.
You can argue that an edge is something that can only be proved in hindsight, and that the edges I’ve relied on for years may evaporate, and you’d be right. However, the skills that allowed me to discover and exploit that edge dont disapear.
No. You are not ‘telling’ porkies. 95% of the people replying here aren’t teachers or propagating myths. Babypips is a free board. If you guys had been selling stuff, I wouldn’t be posting this thread. I would have dialled the cops.
Retail forex exists for the same reason that gambling continues to exist.
Roulette has been exposed as a massive fraud since kids learned the words “house edge”. But it still goes on and on.
Yes there is! Its called the brokers spread. I am tempted to return that comment you gave me that I have no understanding of the forex markets and adding a ‘basic’ in there but I’ll just regard that as an oversight. We all make mistakes. Like my first thread!
In forex, a 1:15 R/R almost certainly comes with a win:loss ratio of 1:15 as well.
But if you mean a MAR ratio of 1:15 over 1000 trades, that would be truly impressive! If you post that here, I will hang my avatar on a tree branch.
Sure. Trade randomly 15 times with a stop loss 1/15 the size of the target profit. There is a 90% chance that one of those trades will end up being 15 times what it was a few hours later. But it wouldn’t matter, the capital would have also lost 15 times plus some more (the brokers costs)
I think this is clearly a largely pointless discussion.
I find it hard to understand that anyone who has even a slight understanding of trading charts, cannot look at a chart in real time or in the historical charts and see where they have an edge. See where the market frequently “show’s it’s hand”. It isn’t and never will be a blind bet. Sometimes the setups are so obvious that you almost know for certain that it’ll bring pips. I have trained people on simulators and pretty much told them outright how the next couple of hours of candles will play out, never having seen them charts before. They’ve been shocked, as if I possess some magical powers or something (they chose the dates) where infact, it’s just a couple of years of absolute study and dedication.
I suggest you stop wasting your own time. You think the Forex market is impossible to beat, I and most other people here know differently. We’ll never agree so you’re obviously in the wrong place.
All I will say to any newbie reading this, it can be done, it’s being done every day by many people and as long as there are patterns in them there charts, there will be profitable traders making money from them. Please ignore all of this doomsaying claptrap.
You cannot use long-run objectives to value short-term activities. It ignores things like liquidity preference.
The current 90-day Bill rate is about 0.15%, by the way. And deposits in Australia these days are definitely considered high yield, on a relative basis.
I was enjoying this thread, reading the different sides of the arguments. Master Tang was going to trade a system of someones choice etc… then videos and posts from cubanpip and no more posts from the main posters. Did I miss something? Did everyone move to another thread and not tell me, or did everyone just go home? Or did I miss something else?