Ok…then I am a loser and you the winner… you happy?
thanks for the kind words brandnew.
and don’t worry, its not your fault. No one should be hard on themselves for failing to make money through gambling (a misnomer).
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yes I am happy to be a winner. But for me it’s taken a lot of time and effort to finally get to this point. Like someone said. Forex is simple but it ain’t easy.
Some guy on the inside deleted my post.
So again I declare:
I ACCEPT MASTER TANGS CHALLENGE
If Master Tang proves me wrong, I will BELIEVE AND WILL CHANGE SIDES.
I will also declare Master Tang is correct.
I also praise Master Tangs courage and sincerity
The system you shall test is:
- Buy when 5ema crosses up 10ema (Timeframe: H1)
- Stop loss 30 pips
- Take profit when 5 ema crosses back down 10 ema
also, why is Clints very insulting post directed towards me not removed, but mine is?
I don’t know if you already know this or not but if you think a post is inapropriate you can click on the exclamation point on the top right corner of the post. Mods may or may not remove it.
I would like to see MT take up the challenge. But I think the MA cross should be the only condition. Take profit and Stop loss are trade management issues and that should be up to the trader. After all, that kind of discretion can be what makes or breaks a trade.
TalonD is right. The one thing that makes a trader unique, is the trade management.
I would gladly trade your cross signals, but the static 30 pip stop loss is a guaranteed loser.
I would prefer percentages.
If those are the robust rules, it’s not the crosses that cause failure, it’s the rigid application of money management.
This is a fluid, and everchanging market. Once you are in a trade, you are at the whim of the market. The only options you have are to exit all, or partial, or to add on. Both of those have their times and places for application. That’s the discretionary side of trading.
As for why Clint’s post is still up, he did not get personal.
He hypothesized the logic behind the opening statement of this thread.
On the other hand, you, and brandnew2fx took things a bit too far with blatant name calling.
It’s all in the forum rules.
If thats your understanding of a system, then its little wonder that your struggling to make money.
You dont specify which instruments he can trade, you dont specify trading hours, does he have to take every signal ? you dont specify position sizing, why are you limiting the system to only buy trades ? you dont specify if the signals are valid only on the close of a 1 hour candle or mid candle.
You dont actually specify what success looks like. You dont specify what return constitutes success, you dont specify max permissible risk, you dont specify max drawdowns. You dont specify if he can run multiple instances of the strategy and diversify available funds, you dont impose any rules that prevent him from taking long term risk in order to achieve short term gains.
What sample size of trades do you require to make your final assessment ? how long will this challenge last ?
Frankly its a bit unfair specifying such a lame idea, then claiming Technical Analysis doesnt work on the basis that such a ridiculous strategy does not work.
Sorry Cubanpip, I don’t personally agree with the OP’s argument but posting that ain’t really helping to swing it 
…nice trade though 
Its funny that you mention that.
Because the system I have given is actually the cowabunga system (in its original, forexpedia form).
I decided to give this system because it is readily known to all on this board, otherwise people would accuse me of giving a failed bogus system to prove my point.
Although why anyone would think I would try so hard to prove I am a failure is beyond me.
I am giving Master Tang maximum discretion in position sizing his trades, otherwise it would be considered unfair for him.
But if you like me to dictate it, fine:
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2% position sizing (conservative). When capital doubles, double 2% accordingly.
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I am limiting it to buy to make it less complicated to backtest, as I am assuming master tang will go through the trouble of programming an ea for it, and I’m sure we don’t have a million years for forward testing
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The instruments to trade are everything, as this thread is directed towards technical analysis as a whole. However, if you like, we will stick with the easiest pair: EUR/USD
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Trade on close of candle
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Trade all hours. However, if you wish, you can trade only the most active time in the day: London/US opening till end.
I have said again and again.
Success = statistically significant positive expectancy
Positive expectancy equals to an E-ratio (edge) that is more than the risk free interest rate of T-bonds of 5% + inflation (avg: 3%) + risk premium. That means it has to be higher than 15% (which is the annual buy and hold return of shares)
Again I have pointed out, The sample size (any sample size) should be 1000 trades. This is a typical robust measure, and should have been understood in my word ‘robust’.
Obviously we won’t have time for 1000 forward tests, so 900 of the trades can be backtesting results.
The challenge will last for as long as it takes to get those 100 forward trades done.
Please let me know if this is appropriate. I am willing to amend the directions if you wish.
Thanks for the link D pip.
However, a 7.25% annualised return is not a success:
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The annualised return of a buy and hold investor in equities is 14.33%. This means that they have failed to beat the market average (or even a lazy investor who does nothing but sit on his arse all day long)!
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In finance, to keep average returns realistic, you have to minus the inflation rate from returns. In the USA, the average inflation rate is 3% (though in the past few years, it has been as high as 5% or more). So that brings the annualised return to 4.25%
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4.25% is even less than a risk free interest rate from bonds of 5%! In other words, you are getting lower returns for higher risk!
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Those results go far to prove my point that not even big players can overcome the impossibility of trading
also we are not counting in transaction costs, taxes, research costs etc. etc. which saxobank has to pay, which would further reduce returns.
Conclusion: Saxobank fails. Its return is even lower than T bonds! That bank should be publicly humiliated for daring to post such results.
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I also don’t agree with fixed stop losses, but I have to give you one to maintain the objectivity of the experiment.
If the system was up to a trader, then it is no longer a system. We might as well start throwing darts at a subjective board.
But I am willing to discuss this issue with you further. Please give me a bit of time to revise your post.
I would like to use the 2% risk per trade rule.
I would also like to be able to use lot sizes of my own choice, but never more than two percent risk. So if I choose to use a thirty pip stop, or a three thousand pip stop, it still will never be more than two percent of the account.
I will also NOT be taking every cross, but the crosses I do take will fit into certain parameters that are not discretionary, but hard fast rules. The only things in use on the chart, are the two MAs. The filters will be defined price moves, or time passages between crosses, in the form of a certain amount of candles.
They are common sense rules, and I’ll post them up for all to see.
As for backtesting, I have never backtested a thing in my life. I can barely program a clock on a microwave.
If Simbafx is up for backtesting, the help would be most appreciated. Simba PM me if you are up for it:)
If not, I’ll find a way to get it done.
The Foreign Exchange market is beatable. Just like every other market not every player is in it for profit. Take for instance autos, not every person is trying to sell for a profit some just need it gone.
Mcdonalds has to pay there employees. A business is bought over seas, the seller has to get payed. These create imbalances in the market.
Exploit these.
Unless I have missed it, you’ve failed to state your purpose in this thread.
What is it?
Do you feel like you are on some saintly errand to try and stop people wasting their time and money trying to trade, when trading is impossible? Is it that you are seeking evidence that it can be done due to your ongoing failure, just choosing a peculiar route to obtain this proof? Or are there other vested interests here that you’re not going to tell us about? There must be a purpose here, for you to expend so much energy on this.
One thing you are doing, is calling me and other people here liars. Anyone willing to confess that they are making consistent gains in this market must be liars because you say it’s not possible. Why have people been on this forum for years? There are huge numbers of people of FF that have also been there years. Why are they still there if they have never made a dime in this market? Why are there not more threads around like yours where people will say it can’t be done? Has it not struck you that it just doesn’t add up? Perhaps you already know it.
I bet you believe it’s possible to consistently lose in Forex and lose big? Bet you wouldn’t, for a minute, argue that people can’t lose all their money much faster than the margin of their spread? We all know it, we have all done it at some point. Well, all you need to do is be on the other side of that losing run to be making gains. Once that run is done, be on the other side of the next loser’s run. Taking the spread out the equation (it can be a tiny fraction of the trade value on the dailies anyway), if it’s possible to lose big, it HAS to be possible to win big as well.
You seem to want to over complicate the argument where actually, this very simplistic reality is as much as you should really need.
It’s about possibility not probability at this stage.
Lets not be silly. The stop could be a multiple of ATR, or below a previous swing low as defined by something like the zig zag, or below the previous 4 hour candle, or any number of perfectly objective methods.
Your suggestion of a set 30 pip stop on a 1 hour timeframe shows your total ignorance of these markets.
His first 7 posts on this forum back when he originally surfaced in December 08 shows his total ignorance of how markets really function.
Unsurprisingly, it looks like he went the way of most gullible dreamers who stumble into this business on the back of the get-rich-quick “rigid system” marketing machine.
He appears the type that would probably get sucked into the MLM, land development & Internet business opportunity scams too judging by his initial offerings on here.
I’m really quite surprised to see this laughable pile of junk made it past page 1.
Some of you guys must still be in holiday hangover mode.
Over what timeframe are you coming up with this figure? This isn’t a number I’ve ever seen reported. Also, what index is this from?
- In finance, to keep average returns realistic, you have to minus the inflation rate from returns. In the USA, the average inflation rate is 3% (though in the past few years, it has been as high as 5% or more).
This is a legitimate argument, but again, over what timeframe and by what measure are you making this statement?
- 4.25% is even less than a risk free interest rate from bonds of 5%! In other words, you are getting lower returns for higher risk!
Bonds are not an acceptable risk free rate benchmark for the purposes of trading because the time frames in question. You need to be using something much more short-term. The argument can be made for T-Bills. Clearly, though, some kind of risk adjustment must be included, but what that is needs to be clearly defined.
hmmm, i’d suggest lagging indicators are mostly useless. that’s not true TA.
Cowabunga was mentioned… Does anyone actually trade that system? If so, what are your results?
The title of the thread mentions technical and fundamental analysis. No one has mentioned Price Action trading… are there any studies on that? 
Is there any such thing as a leading indicator? If so, what is it?
Yes, part of the old school Dow Theory…
an increase or decrease in the Dow Transportation index could be considered an early or leading signal for the Dow Industrial index.
The raw materials had to move over the railroads before the finished goods could be manufactured. So rail stocks, and the transportation index popped before the factories and the industrial index.
FedFx and UPS volumes are watched and considered leading indicators.
The Stocastic and CCI could be considered leading. Even though they’re based on past price, they’re signaling a change in the recent trend.