Japanese Yen Weakens Across the Board as Risk Aversion Abate

JPY traded on a softer footing, with a pick up in risk appetite encouraging heavy speculative activity. A large U.S. name had a strong interest to buy USD-JPY and EUR-JPY, which forced a USD-JPY move in to 97.00 and EUR-JPY traded up to 136.21 highs. Stop losses interest was a feature of the USD-JPY rally, although exporters have also been heavy sellers on the way up, which is capping further gains. The JPY crosses looked poised to build on their Asian afternoon gains, with early European accounts anticipating fresh interest from Asian players as more money is allocated in to overseas assets. Japanese economic data today indicated that conditions remain weak, but have stabilised over the last couple of months, with the June Tankan survey still at a weak -48, but off its March low of -58. Newly registered vehicle sales are also down 13.5% y/y, but also better than its -19.4% y/y May outturn. These releases should also reinforce expectations that there are “green shoots” appearing in the global economy. Further JPY selling could potentially lift USD-JPY to 97.50 resistance, while EUR-JPY has scope for 138.00.