Just remember that the filter on indecision candles requires that the close of the last 1 hour candle be above (buy) or below (sell) than the close of ALL the 1 hour candles contained on the 4 hours candles.
All the best SJ, hope you feel better soon.
tradejosh, how many loss and wins in your backtest?
@jawa: get well mate, the markets ain’t going nowhere.
Do you think a lower tp1/breakeven
say 35pips would make it a lower risk system (much lower profit of course too), might test it out…
@smacko: Trust me, i’ve backtested it over months and years, the ATR is perfect for the system, and it allows it to be used on any chart, in any market, if you look back for months and months you couldn’t find a market like this weeks, we had an amazing first day, i was up 103% but now the market is acting in a way i personally have never seen, so much indecision yet it is slowly riding on the back of some kind bullish sentiment, I have never had a losing week as i’ve said before, there is no need to be alarmed in any way for one day of bad trading
@traderjosh: This system is designed to work in any market, on any chart, at any time, by using a very profitable cookie cutter strategy we can trade it like a machine with little to no human perception needed, but there are a number of optimization’s that can be used to make it even better, for instance in trending markets trailing stops are good, in ranging markets lowering full tp’s is a great idea, in crappy markets like this one waiting for confirmation of signals (stars/inside bars) is a good idea, one thing that i like to do personally is switch to the 1 hour charts after getting screwed a certain amount of times the signals are lower risk and more numerous, you can catch all the inner candle moves as well, but really its whatever you wanna do
but again this has never had a losing week, so unless the market stays the exact way it is all week we will be fine
@Sith Jawa, the problem with trailing is how do you determine that something is trending or not? Something that does not require human perception.
Entered a buy on AU because a bullish IC, bear IC on GJ, at the same time there is a bear inside bar on GJ and also a bear inside bar on AJ.
Right now I have this working positions:
[ol]
[li]SELL on EJ @ 99.792 with ATR of 49.5 pips[/li][li]BUY AU @ 0.99478 with ATR of 41.7 pips[/li][li]SELL GJ @ 123.125 with ATR of 53.4 pips[/li][li]SELL STOP on GJ @ 123.020[/li][li]SELL STOP on AJ @ 78.807[/li][/ol]
@Sith Jawa I’m looking that there is a strong correlation between AU and AJ, and sometimes they enter in distinct direction, like now, AU is buy and AJ is sell. Do you think it makes sense to choose pairs with no correlation, to avoid getting burned twice?
I’m thinking about the majors, AUD, EUR, USD, GBP, NZD, CAD, JPY, CHF, and to make a combination with low spreads and high ATR, and maybe good swap interest.
The correlated currencies are
[ul]
[li]USD with JPY[/li][li]CAD with AUD and USD[/li][li]EUR with GBP[/li][li]GBP with USD and EUR[/li][li]NZD with AUD[/li][li]AUD with CAD and NZD[/li][li]CHF with EUR[/li][/ul]That could led us to this pairs that gives 5 trading pairs with low correlation. The pairs on the same row have high correlation, more than 80%, sometimes more than 95%
[ol]
[li]GBPJPY or GBPUSD or EURJPY or EURUSD[/li][li]AUDUSD or AUDJPY or NZDUSD or NZDJPY[/li][li]EURNZD or GBPNZD or EURAUD or GPBAUD[/li][li]AUDCHF or NZDCHF[/li][li]CHFJPY or USDCHF[/li][/ol]We need to check better this on [Forex Correlation](Forex Correlation - Mataf
I) see that for your pair’s suggestion this are the best non correlated pair
[ol]
[li]AUDJPY with AUDCHF (39.7%) and EURAUD (-37.4%)[/li][li]AUDUSD with AUDCHF (41.1%) and EURAUD (-39%) [no surprise they are the same as AJ][/li][li]EURJPY with AUDCHF (19.3%), EURAUD (-16.9%), EURNZD (-59%) and GBPAUD (-55.9%)[/li][li]GBPJPY with AUDCHF (4%), EURAUD (-1.2%), EURNZD (-39.9%), GBPAUD (-31.3%), GBPNZD (-44.2%) and NZDCHF (40.6%)[/li][/ol]
The correlation between the pairs we use is:
[ol]
[li]AUDJPY with AUDUSD (98.3%), EURJPY (97.7%) and GBPJPY (90%)[/li][li]AUDUSD with AUDJPY (98.3%), EURJPY (95.6%) and GBPJPY (86.9%)[/li][li]EURJPY with AUDJPY (97.7%), AUDUSD (95.6%) and GBPJPY (95.3%)[/li][li]GBPJPY with AUDJPY (90%), AUDUSD (86.9%) and EURJPY (95.3%)[/li][/ol]
As you can see we are trading highly correlated pairs, that place us on doubling our risk or our reward when trading them. If we change some of them and use other non correlated pairs, we can reduce our risk a lot.
What do you think about this?
@SJ, get well soon~
Currently i am down 250 pips for the week, as I did not catch the full profit on monday. Nonetheless, will follow till my account go bust =)
Speedy recovery SJ.
I’m also down to 88 pips gains that because of good profit from Monday.
@everyone: Thanks for the well wishes I would stay out of the market for the time being, I have never EVER decided for myself to do this because i hate sitting by the side lines, but i cannot figure this out… i’ve tried all day, and i can’t think of what is happening and what can be done to trade in it, atleast these are not anywhere near normal conditions, perhaps a weekly goal might have saved us? aha i should’ve settled for my 103%
I see that some other price action traders like DnB have also stopped trading these pairs in this market
@medisoft: If you think about it correlation is actually a good thing, yes in bad markets like this we may be burned twice, but we may also score twice, or hedge a position for assured profit although it would reduce the risk of large drawdown, perhaps diversifying would be good for an overall trading chart portfolio
i know these pairs very well so i trade them exclusively, but any pair can be traded
@everyone: but again everyone if you are having doubts in the system please just backtest it manually over the past months, years, decade, aha it works if this is my first losing week then i totally jinxed myself but the concepts are sound and proven, dont doubt the system because of 1-2 bad trading days, imagine if the indecision candles after the stars wouldve been ignored? then we would still be well in profit, and that is a change i intend to make, the star being a trend in place, indecision, then reversal, if the very next candle is an indecision candle could it be consolidation? so if it opposes the stars signal do we take it? do we ignore it? what filter could we use? what if it agrees with the direction of the star then? questions questions, ill backtest it all tomorrow
Hello traders!
Hello SJ, so good to hear from u again, hop u getting better?
Morning star on GBPJPY,TWO PIN BARS both confirm buy,AUDUSD MORNING STAR,AUDJPY also a MORNING STAR.
Pls guys kindly check and confirm/ correct this statement.
Happy trading
They are definitely very pretty formations
can you post pictures of them please?
Thanks SJ, getting that confirmation from u is very kook,
@medisoft ,sorry at work trading from my iPad, so I wud not b able to , but sure post all four pics when I get home whatever the outcome.
Happy pipping!
This is actually what I did because I didn’t get a reply to my question about including the last bar of the star formation in the filter for conflicting pinbars quick enough. I made a fair profit on them. I’m starting by testing with if an indecision candle closes more than half way through the stars final bar and below/above the rest of the indecision candles then it’s valid. I’m also going to test if just treating the final bar of a star formation as any other indecision candle for the purposes of filtering multiple signals as is works better.
@ Everyone here… ****ting in her/his pants now because it’s a bit rought to trade right now.
I wanna react to all of you guys… about 2 things.
If a system works, the system works… Well this system with no doubt works.
You guys have a few days loosing strike and everyone is in panic, trying desperatly to develop new conditions, to stay out of the market. Well , if you feel so, DO IT. and get BURNED!
Because as soon as you step out, the next signal will be a huge winner, and you won’t be riding this mother full of pipsload to the station back home… making you even more sciker as that you are right now.
So what is the problem that if this week will be a looser? Will that be in comparison to the huge wins you already made with this system. I backtested for fun 1 week on only GBP/JPY. And gained 1000 pips on 1 chart!!!
I have never ever seen a system gain that much pips in 1 week on 1 chart!!
So what if you loose 400 pips this week? Who cares ?? And besides that, monday was a huge pips day, so the losses you make the last few days are something you can take easily. But hey don’t listen to me, just quit the system if you don’t trust it… I don’t care, it’s your own money on the line, and your descision to make.
The other point I want to make is this… do not change the system because you will never ever know if you are trending or ranging… you only know this a few candles later, and well…we can not predict the future … can we ?
So if you ask questions, plese do it about the system itself… not about how you can change it if it doesnt work the way you like too.
@SithJawa, you are doing an amazing job here. I really like your efford and time you’re putting into this. But please, as a friend I ask you, please do not change the system anymore. The ATR was a nice addon, but for now I think we should trade it as it is. That way you will get the best results to look at over a few months of time, how this system is performing. A change you make now, can be bad for the next week trades. Or visa versa.
Now I bow down on my knees and say…please…please…please
@Jonkie - When SJ is saying to stay out of the market for the time being I’m guessing that staying in the market is maybe not a great idea.
I think Jonkie has some great points about the overall success of the system and I’m sure it will continue as soon as this little weird incident ends.
I personally stopped trading at all until it improves a bit (which hopefully shouldn’t be very long), however, as I had chosen the inopportune time of Tuesday morning to open my live account, haha.