JÄWÄ's 'Experimental' Price Indecision System

I had various full and half take profits on gj last night! On that account I’m only testing trades with gj.

Recovering the losses today. Lots of take profits and full take profits :slight_smile:

I think the Euro summit resolutions have given back some certainty to the markets, for now, at least, so I will start trading next week at midnight\morning monday.

So is there any more news to wait on or is that it? And for this method why does what’s going on with the euro affect others pairs like audusd as the method has struggled with those too in recent weeks? Or is it just a case of ‘one of those weeks’ for this method?

Hi guys, just found this system and it really inspired me. I’m a full-time trader and I get about 10-12 hours of chart viewing in per day (I play Diablo 3 while waiting for signals and/or trades to unfold, hehe). Using the 4h/1h is a little too slow so i’m going to test this system using the 1H/15M so i can get the trading frequency i need. Will let you guys know how it goes this week and will be posting daily gains/losses on this post. I may add some of my own modifications to improve the filtration process since I’m bound to get more false signals using faster TF’s. Cheers

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Pair Traded: E/J
Account Type: Mini
Lots Used: 8.00 ($10.00 pips exactly for a mini on E/J)
Risk: 3%
Starting Balance: 10,000
Ending Balance: ?
Stop Loss: 30 pips every trade.
TP: 1/2 @ +15, move to B/E, trail price mentally using good ole’ common sense. Exit at first reverse signal.
Signal TF - 1HR
Indicative TF - 15M

Added filters:
Money Flow Index MFI(14) - This is my favorite oscillator and while it defeats the purpose of the whole naked trading, it’s all about the money to me and the MFI is one of the best at showing true OB/OS as it ties volumes with price within the MFI readings. Here’s the logic on how I use it:

-If MFI is leaving the 100-80 zone, or has just touched the 80 mark, sell signals are valid, buys are looked at with great caution (price could still make higher highs and form one or multiple divergences), and bullish inside bars are invalid.
-If MFI is leaving the 0-20 zone, or has just touched the 20 mark, buy signals are valid, sells are looked at with great caution (price could still make lower lows and form one or multiple divergences), and bearish inside bars are invalid.
-If MFI is trending down and is below 50, set a tight stop (a few pips off of high of mother bar) for any inside bar sell signals and enter at close of child bar.
-If MFI is trending up and is above 50, set a tight stop (a few pips off of the low of mother bar) for any inside bar buy signals and enter at close of child bar.

While not necessary to see, always keep an eye out for divergences, especially around these key areas coupled with our indecision candles to further verify the signal.

Here’s an example of my first two trades this fine Monday morning. On my live account I always scale in, meaning I’ll always test the waters of the market and never put too much faith in the prospect of my own human error by only entering with 1/4th of what I intend to ultimately risk. If that goes well, more orders are entered until the full 3% is invested. Since this is a demo and I’m still trading my live as well I don’t really have time for all that so I’m just using hard stops and simple TP’s.

The first trade was a loser. I went short on the close (to get the best price) of the bearish inside child bar but I hadn’t added the MFI indicator yet (this is what led me to do so) and I saw that the 1H was coming right off the 20. Low and behold price reversed with a indecision buy candle, so i cut my losses after the close of this indecision candle and when long. 15 pips was hit so I took 1/2 off and moved to B/E and currently as of typing this I am 10 minutes away from the hourly close and not seeing any indecision in the market so I will hold this long.

As of the current 0800 bar you can see how the MFI would have filtered the invalid inside sell bar and gave us a strong signal to buy on the next indecision candle. We’ll see how this trade plays out though, but this is how I’ll be running this slightly tweaked system for the week if anyone was interested. Faster TF’s mean more trades and hopefully keeping a high rate of success and better scope of the market with the added filter of the MFI.

Looks like this candle will also close as a bullish indecision so we’ll see. If it does I’ll be looking to buy again, keeping the current trade at B/E and the new with a 30 pip SL as the rules state.

edit: the 0800 did NOT close as indecision, got close to B/E at +5 pips but shot back up at the last 30 seconds and it looks like it might be in for a good run up.

editx2: there also seems to be a sweet Type II (continuation) divergence that i just noticed, further verifying this buy signal if you look over the last 24 hours. Had I noticed that it would have been another reason to stay out of that inside sell bar. No crying over spilt pips though :slight_smile:

final edit for trade #2: price went up to a +38 pip gain but unfortunately I was enjoying several bowls of Reeses Puffs cereal and I came back right as I got stopped out at B/E lol. Ces la vie. Waiting patiently for the next signal :slight_smile:


I started trading again at midnight last night…sold AJ and EJ pi bars, AJ hit SL, but I sold another pin bar on EJ at the next 4 hour candle and both closed at full TP…I think I will wait until July 5th to start trading again because of holidays. (I blew up all kinds of fireworks last night! It was great to lose money in real fire & smoke instead of some losing trades, LOL!)

1 gj trade today hit htp other half hit be, looks like an ib forming for the current candle.

Hi guys!

As Im still in Portugal now for 2 weeks and its getting a bit quiet in this thread, i was wondering if everyone is still trading this system and whats the result. I would also like to know if the markets relieved some stress already. Also, did anyone heard something about jawa?

Thanks and happy trading:D!

Hello people (for what’s left of it),

Sadly this thread has died for no reason, perhaps due to vacations? Unfortunately, SithJawa went inactive because of a busy schedule, if i understand it correctly that is. But that doesn’t mean we can’t continue discussing and showing results. We may have had some minor bad weeks, that doesn’t mean to immediately give up. I have forward papertested the old original system thoroughly this week, as i want to proceed with this system once i start with real money next week.

Therefor, i’d like to notify that this system is still making profit, regardless of the news and vacations.
I’ve tested the 4 pairs shown in the first post.

Picking up the PB’s, IB’s and stars with the original rules. We would have made [B][U]+949[/U][/B] pips!! Calculating in a rough spread, it would be around +900.

The results are from monday 06:00 to friday 19:00 GMT +3, based on the internationally recognised end-of-day in the forex markets time.

[B][ul]
[li]EUR/JPY +62
[/li][li]GBP/JPY +508
[/li][li]AUD/USD +219
[/li][li]AUD/JPY +160
[/li][/ul][/B]

As you can see, every chart still ended up in profit. Even the Euro, whilst in crisis.

Now let’s get this thread back alive and kick some ass :slight_smile:

Hey mate I’ve been gone a few weeks, just Moved. I was wondering what you meant by the original rules. Do you mean you are doing the 40/40/70 with the zone cross over moving averages or what is currently on the first post or some combination?

Glad to see there’s still a bit life in here :smiley:

I’m sorry to not have mentioned the applied rules. I’m not entirely sure if it’s the ‘original’ version, it just sounded a bit more awesome. Anyway, the rules i use are brought back to the basics. No indicators. No SL and TP moving.

I trade with 40/40/70, HOWEVER, i do [U]not[/U] move around the TP’s. If there are 2 PB’s with buy signals, they will both have their own targets. I believe SithJawa is a more aggressive trader on the market to gain more pips with higher risks. Personally, i will be glad to lock out the target’s as soon as possible. Some may disagree with me, but i adjusted the system a bit more to my own personal trading matters.

I trade every pinbar, e.g. if 1st is a buy, 2nd is a sell. I will sell it regardless the high’s or low’s, it was more logical to me as we are trading price action. This means i want to trade the LAST pinbar and not the first. Since these signals are sometimes more than 12hours old, and thus trading the past. I will discard the previous pinbar trade though.

For the inside bars, i use the given rule as in #1 post. Taking the last 4 candles including the mother bar, and see if the insidebar ended higher or lower than 50% from the high’s and low’s.

The stars however, i do [U]not[/U] watch the current trends. I trade every star i see. In my opinion, it’s really hard to spot a strong trend in the most circumstances on the 4H timeframe, so i just trade them all. And so far, i’m satisfied.

I apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused.

I’m still trading this strategy, the last week of June was tough, and I was vacation during july 4th week. If you had allowed compounding by moving up TP for last week, Mones, you would have had well over 1,000 pips…just look at friday on GJ, and how there was 3 trades, two IC and one star buys which went all the way to full TP, for example.

Good to have you back :slight_smile:

I’m fully aware of the fact that there are chances you could greatly increase your total TP’s and profits. However, as i have never traded with real money, i want to start off trading as safe and secure as possible. As i need to get used to the emotional part of trading. If everything goes well in the upcoming weeks, i will start looking at moving TP’s around :slight_smile: Sadly, i wanted to start this week but there was something wrong with verifying the documents. Now it’s postponed to next week.

Thanks for getting back to me Mones. Just trying to clarify so you trade ever pin bar and if the first is a buy and the second is a sell you close out the buy and put in the sell or you let both run in a sort of hedge?

Thanks

Just looking to back test it

Correct. I will close the first buy signal, and open the second sell signal. As this one is more relevant to me, than the previous one (different traders etc.). [B]Do note[/B]: This is not how SithJawa intended the system, he got different rules explained for this situation in post #1.

Also, i’d like to give you all heads up. We have already locked in +749 pips, i guess you could say it’s a good start of the week :slight_smile:

There are 5 open trades, which have hit T1. Let’s see if they can go for T2 ! 2 valid Pinbars aswell, however these have just started rolling so i will calculate them in later on.

EUR/JPY - 1 Morning star
AUD/USD - 1 Morning star and 1 Insidebar
GBP/JPY - 1 Morning star
AUD/JPY - 1 Morning star

Update*
The breaking news has come through and made all the pinbars cry. However, we’re still at [B]+416[/B] pips with 3 full days left. All the charts have star patterns forming now (except AUD/USD), let’s see how that will work out. I’m still not entirely sure whether to trade star patterns after breaking news. Perhaps someone could enlighten us on that part.

Is anybody still using this strategy with success? I have been looking into it and it seems promising. I was wondering how people who have been using it for the last few weeks or since the start of the thread have been getting on?

Cheers,

Eoin

So Mones, your live account ?

Hi there, and welcome on the forum :slight_smile:

I’d like to notify that last week i have been forward testing it again, and came down on a total profit of [B]+533[/B] (hopefully Pipcompounder can give other results, as i’ve done a few minor adjustments). I have tested it as much as i could, and i can really say i’m satisfied by the results so far, despite the minor loss in June.

I started trading this system with live money today. For the upcoming month i chose for AUD/USD & AUD/JPY. Next month i will add another pair, and the month after that the last pair. My reason for this approach is that i don’t want to start right off the bat with all 4 charts. Setting up TP’s, SL’s and Mobile Price Alerts quickly is something that i have to slowly get used to. Besides, the margin on my balance won’t accept too many trades running yet.

I hope i answered your question above, as i don’t really understand the question :frowning:

Mones, what time does your daily candles close at?

I had losses on all pairs except for GJ, which was only +31 pips, the market reversed and took out SL on many signals during the middle of the week. My daily closes at 00:00 EST.
I am just trading GJ pair this week, and it has already hit half TP, +40 pips for the week, currently.

Can you tell us the modifications you are using
? Thanks