JÄWÄ's 'Experimental' Price Indecision System

Trading Systems Free Forex Trading Systems
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@juicypips: yeah this has probably been then worst start to a week in months :stuck_out_tongue: but again if you this to the letter i guarantee you large profits, i myself am up about 97 pips even after starting off -300 monday :[ so many false signals have never happened before, we have the europeans to thank for that but again even though the start to this week was rough i was correct in saying that the slow and strong up move would fizzle out as buyers give in to selling pressure, I do not look at S/R, fib levels, trendlines etc. at all, i see them because i have traded with them heavily but what is great about this system is that it determines entries from the inner trend of the candles themselves, allowing you to get into every profitable reversal and continuation possible, Pin bars direction is decided on the 1 hour chart, because by just looking at the 4 hour you dont know if it is a pin bar or if it is a reverse pin bar, but again, if you trade this system to the letter i severely doubt you can end the week in the negative, the key is controlling your emotions and being able to take the losses, most weeks their are only a couple losses, some weeks there are no losses, but then some weeks like this and last start off with large losing streaks (in fact these are the only two weeks in months like that), but we will end profitable once the market makes its decision of where it wants price to go

EDIT: if you are unsure of the system i would trade it on a demo account for a week or two to see for yourself that it does weather losses in markets such as this, and if you would like you could add an “outer trend filter” like a bollinger band or S/R levels, this is great for people who dont much like losing streaks and would like to avoid them even at the expense of overall profit

If you use BBands i would suggest only selling in the top half of the BBand, and buying in the bottom half, or you could only take signals that are on S/R levels, this will minimize losses heavily but it will also minimize profit :3

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@ aserafino

I have taken a look at my 1 hoyr chart, and indeed a sell signal according to the 1 hour chart.
I removed my indicator from post #70 untill I fixed this.
On my chart the periode of those 4 hours was from 13:00 till 17:00 broker time.
So I didnt see that signal on my chart.

However, this evening I received a signal in my email, which arrived at 23:08. I have to sort it out if this is due to some lagging emailservice of my provider ;-(. But the candle around that time was not a pinbar at all… so something really strange is happening… and I have to look into it. I will send extra info in the email which tells the opening time of the candle and so.

That way I can see which candle is the one that gave the email signal. And if all is correct.

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I would just like to say that I’m having similar results this week as SethJawa. I’m back to break even this week after a difficult start. For me early week trades are often an opportunity for nice gains but also entail a certain risk.

While I total appreciate the work some traders are doing with EA’s and this strategy, my experience is that an EA just won’t work with this strategy. I believe that it takes a pretty clever trader to put it all together in reading the 4 hour bars. Even if a trader reads that chart well the trader must set and monitor the money management rather carefully. Anyone that has other experience please let me know.

This is really the first of many strategies I have tried that actually has good traction in the real trading world. In my opinion some strategies look good on paper but just don’t have a practical application in actually trading. SethJawa has a strategy that works in the real world of trading, at least for me.

Thanks,
Greg Jones

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@Greg: The best days to trade by far are tuesday, wednesday, and thursday, the higher volume of trade makes for much larger moves and much less indecision, you’re very right when you say trading sunday and monday is very risky, their tends to be a lot of indecision and in markets like this weeks their will be losses, however more often than not there is also a lot of money to be gained, so i think i will continue to weather through early week trading :smiley:

As far as EA’s go i think it CAN be done with a system like this, but i certainly wouldn’t know how and the variables must be extremely complex and difficult to code, i think the only thing that might not be able to be coded in is the star formation as it is a three bar pattern that requires a very fourth dimensional thinking to see that i dont think computers can do (thoguh im not sure), I myself have traded EA’s profitably before (EMA crosses), but barely as they keep needing optimization, if any of you are interested in EA’s you should go to the EA section of the forums, there is a member called JohnnyKanoo who trades near exclusively EA’s i think

301 Moved Permanently

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@jawa: you mentioned designing a simpler system, are you still working on it? I’m finding this one a little hard if I’m only able to access charts via mt mobile.
You have mentioned using your mobile, any tips?

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@smacko: i’m full of tips :smiley: although im not exactly sure why it would be difficult to trade this on mt4 mobile :3 this is as simple as the system will get, no more zone jumping just the close to close trading, its all explained on the first post and their are tons of picture examples i put up in this thread :slight_smile: i have actually started trying to trade this exclusively on my iphone in the mornings, when my alarm goes off at 4AM i just look at my app, trade, then close my eyes and sleep

What i do is i have my 4 four hour charts already set up as my favorite charts on my app so as soon as i open it 5 minuets till the candles close i see the overview right there (AUD/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY) then i go to each chart and look for the signals:

the first thing i look for are valid pin bars which only takes a split second to identify
then i look for inside bars
then i look for stars

once ive identified all the potential signals i zoom in to the 1 hour charts of the potential pin bars and see whats going on, i just look at the last 4 candles, then once the 4 hour candle closes i place my trades :slight_smile: after all my trades are placed i set my stop losses and take profits, ill upload some pics from my phone in a minute :slight_smile:

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EDIT: wasn’t paying attention on the order placing screen, its not a buy limit for pin bars obviously, its market execution, in fact i don’t use limit orders at all, i use stop orders for inside bars though :smiley:

DOUBLE EDIT: Also obviously it wasn’t EUR/JPY, shoot me now

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@jonkie76
I did not get any email alert from your indicator. I have already activated the Email function in the MT4 platform with test email. Do you know why?

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@jawa: thanks that was very helpful breaking it down like that!
You can always tell by eye on mt mobile if the wick is greater than 50% and body less than 1/3? My eyesight is poor unfortunately.

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@SithJawa

How do you manage your trades?
Do you have an EA that closes for you the partial close at 40 pips profit and the
Rest at 70 pips?
Or do you close them at yourself and are the hole day on the computer?

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We get a BUY signal on all 4 pairs AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD and GBP/JPY… whatch your charts… in 2 minutes from now!

Hmm, and my indicator says sell… well is really something wrong there in my indicator!

edit : ok, the fault in the indicator is found… now to solve it:

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So I understand that if the mother bar of an inside bar setup is a pinbar then we trade the pinbar and not the motherbar.

But what if the inside bar is the pinbar?

Are we trading the inside bar setup or the inside pinbar or maybe both? The market is consolidating but then is showing indecision.

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Hi SithJawa, may i ask about inside bars. How do you place pending order (which side) when you do not have running orders and not know the trend?

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And what if inside pin is showing in other direction than Mother bar? Or is the direction set by pinbar and the pending order is just following it?

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@SithJawa
The past time I was researching a little bit your strategy. I would like to ask you something to maybe improve it (But maybe you have tested this things already )
1.) STOP-LOSS: Would it not be better and less risky if you would set the StopLoss at the HIGH (on Sell) or LOW (on Buy) of the indecision CandleStick?
I was looking a little bit more accurately and saw that if the trade went at other direction, it had been stopped out at HIGH or LOW of the current indecision bar. So it’s better to reach a stop loss of 10-30 pips than a SL of 40 pips. With this method you can filter bad signals and stop them. This method can also be used on STAR FORMATIONS and INSIDE BARS.
2.) Another question that I want to ask you is the TAKE-PROFIT. What do you think about a take profit of 50 pips (half position) and at 70 pips close the full position in profit. At 30-40 pips the SL can be moved to BreakEven.

What do you think about these methods?

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Sorry if this question has been asked before, but what broker/charts do you use?
I am looking at free metatrader charts and things are not working out so well.

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@smacko: There is a function called a crosshair in the top right of the charts, you can use this to calculate price, what it does is show you the price of the current location of the cross hair, you if you drag the cross hair from the top of a candle to the bottom you can calculate its total price range than determine what is half and etc.

@aserafino: I have tried many ea’s and they do work although they are confusing and i have to leave my computer on for it, and i started using mt4 email alerts so it would tell me when i need to go cash out half positions but my computer also needs to be on for that, so i started going to a website called newsimpact.com, i can send customized price alerts right to my phone as well as all of the news events

The problem with these optimization’s is although they would’ve worked splendidly this week and last week, they wouldn’t work in normal market conditions, the 40 pip stop loss is for some reason the perfect number for four hour charts as it leaves plenty of room for trades to breathe and your trades are RARELY stopped out as most of the time if the trades go sour an opposing signal gets you out early, and most of the time when it gets near the sl it turns around, same with the take profit, not all moves can make it to 70 pips in normal market conditions and taking profit at 40 pips is like a magic number, it maximizes the amount of trades won and prevent wins being turned into losses

now the past two weeks have been EXTREMELY choppy and volatile and i agree that it is NOT okay to have such large drawdowns in really bad markets such as these, so what i am doing all day today is trying to find a filter that is more prevalent and effective at filtering out trades in terrible markets such as this, while still hardly effecting normal market condition trading

@jonkie76: aha i wish we wouldve listened to your indicator! Not only were all of those trades perfect setups but if you were any sane price action trader you wouldve also traded them because they were smack dab on a strong S/R line and at a fib level, they were very strong signals D: unfortunately this week has been so choppy and volatile with tons of false signals, however if you have been trading it to the letter you would still be up 200 pips :3 aha i picked the worst week to challenege people to trade

@slipp3ryWhippit: awesome question! if the candle being engulfed by the mother candle is a pin bar we only trade the pin bar, however if there is a pin bar and we start trading it, and then the next candle is completely engulfed by the pin bar, i will normally add a second position if they both agree on direction, if they dont i trust the pin bar more :slight_smile:

@renda1234: also a brotastic question, what i do is look at the previous 4-8 one hour candles and see who has moved the most, if from the start of those 8 candles the bulls have moved price up 30 points and the bears havent been able to make ground, then the trend is up, and vice versa :slight_smile:

@urbanjunglebaby: I use forex.com 4 hour charts, they close every 4 hours (12, 4, 8 EST), dont worry this strategy is extremely profitable, however the past two weeks have been terribly difficult for most traders as the markets are unusually choppy and volatile, i am still profitable trading this (last week i made 1300 pips), and this week i am HOPING that my system well get me atleast 750 pips even in these terrible conditions, right now i am working on making a filter that will help with drawdowns :slight_smile:

EDIT: as far as finding a filter for bad markets like this weeks ive found that bad signals caused by volatility cannot be filtered without compromising profit in normal market conditions, that being said the drawdown is unfortunate but i dont see how it can be avoided as this system is insanely profitable because it compounds wins and cuts losses short, but in volatile market conditions the opposite is more likely to happen, in normal conditions we are rarely stopped out, in these market conditions that is the primary form of direction change :stuck_out_tongue: but again if you trade this system to the letter you will still be profitable even in crap conditions like this, it will be emotionally taxing to weather the losses but i dont think its avoidable while still maintaining such large pip gains

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Do you place pending orders even on big candles?

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@renda1234: yes even it the pending order on the mother candle of an inside bar is 50 pips away, it is still valid :slight_smile: Irvin just last night I had a couple valid inside bars with pending orders placed far away from actual price :slight_smile:

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Think I need to reread entry conditions etc as my week is terrible, I was up 950 pips last week and not counted how many down yet but definitely down! I’m on demo as well so no emotion involved in my trading, not sure where I’m going wrong though! Are you very strict on what qualifies as pins/hammers? Do gravestone dojis still count as the body is less than a 3rd? Thanks