Anyway. Keep it up. Nice work here.
I have no stop, but your comment underscores the need to avoid stops
under normal circumstances
That was the departed RRM2’s battle cry, its stops that cause trades to
lose more than anything else
the grey line you see is the current price
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Yip. Been a long time since I traded with stops. Not only do they affect the amount of and number of losses but it affects your psyche. For me anyway. I can manually close out a loser no problem. But I cannot stomach sitting watching a stop being taken out automatically!!! LOL!!!
I never got a reply from TWB regarding repainting
indicators. He seemed to be defending them although I’m
sure he wasn’t.
but my Harmonic Arrow is well regarded, and is no worse
than Harmonic patterns generally
It does repaint, but I may possibly have noticed something
It may usually be right despite repainting
Now I don’t want to go back down the repainting indicator
rabbit hole again. I simply can’t afford it
but if this arrow is well supported by Stochastic or RSI, it may
move against you quite a bit before price actually does what
the arrow was originally suggesting.
The fact that it may teleport itself favourably to make itself
look better may not be the point. If it usually hits your
target that is the main thing
a good argument for ECN commissions isn’t about whether its cheaper
than a wider spread, but how often does the spread just about manage to stop you out!
With tight spreads, even if you pay more in comm, many trades could be saved
but with no stop at all, infinitely more trades could move from DD to winner
if a stop takes you because you completely got it wrong, you deserve it,
but when you ultimately called it right but got stopped by one pip
before things turned in your favour
thats the really sickening part
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Well.
For what it’s worth take a look at my risk based position sizing that I’ve been banging on about everywhere. Might fit in with what you’re doing and with this discussion generally. It means I can trade without stops at leisure and in total comfort (not having to worry).
Here’s a link to it where I think I summed it up nice for another thread:
I’ve adjusted it back down to 3 x ATR but using ATR(14) of late. But it’s pretty robust and just depends on your risk profile.
This is very, very interesting!! “Scout - OUT!” Profits to follow!
This is an interesting point. I never thought about it that way - BTW I know that I’m not adding anything to the conversation here … sorry about that, But these are excellent observations and results drawn from the real deal.
KC
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Looking at the EURCAD 4 Hour Chart, you have the red SELL signal on an upward line… this can be caused by two issues 1, Because the setting is too tight and needs a slightly longer period to unscramble the data displayed or 2. you may be using a Time Series or VIDYA Moving Average in the Calculation…
Hi @Jerome32, Sorry, didn’t answer your question… I’m no defender of repainting Indicators… I have too many bozos that post on my befuddled thread carrying on about repainting indicators.
The definition of a repainting indicator is one the rewrites the history of where a price was 3, 4, 5, 10 periods prior or an arrow that moves after price action has moved away… they rewrite price history, not flicker prior to close.
Posters read 3 posts of a 120+ post thread that explains in great detail how to apply the MA Coloured Slope Indicator to the strategy and are left wondering why they cannot trade their way out of wet paper bag…
So, like a many great Indicators that require a forensic investigation to derive a signal, we can overlay this visually superior Signal to reveal a pairs direction at a glance… Saving a lot of second guessing when scanning through baskets of a possible 28 pairs.
The MA Slope’s weakens is on low TF’s where it can flicker back and forth between Buy and Sell before the TF period is closed and this is what the clueless are referring to as a repainting Indicator…
It’s the same indecisiveness that a candle can generate changing from green to red, back to green before it closes and the next one repaints… or a volatile price that causes two moving averages to cross and uncross multiple times before they extend to the next time period.
The DiNapoli Indicator is a sharp algo and will be a great addition to your trading arsenal… It can get very hard to decipher the signal with the close proximity of each line… so we use another Indicator that gives a clearer more defined signal… and instead of using the close (HLOC) of the period it derives its data from the DiNapoli instead…
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Thanks for the clarification and valued input
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The 2.31 profit for June may be sustainable
as my three month profit is 6.15 and that includes a ton
of mistakes!
but I am open to the same accusation raised against rrrm2,
that I only record winners.
to exaggerate … you could open 50 random trades blindfolded
without stops and only close them as they went into profit
you could easily see 20 straight winners on your account history,
but what is the state of the remaining 30 live trades? If
they are all DD to the point where the broker is about to pull
the plug, this is no victory at all!
I am not in that position, but I do not feel anyone should be too
impressed with a trader who only records winners. That isn’t
me exactly, I do close some small losers, but I do allow scout
trades plenty of time and breathing space and that does
incur DD
but the sc below illustrates what I mean
The two previous losers weren’t losers in hindsight. we see
they both would have made nice profit, but I was too scared to
give them the room they needed.
As you can see, I have gone in once again with a view to
not making that mistake.
The Model Campaign
Gold, discussed above has proven to be a model
trade campaign
It was a perfect Strategy #2 setup, despite the very
ominous contrary BBs
It lost 0.65 at 0.1 position size
When we had a bearish Pin bar supported by a very steep
bearish DiNapoli I went in again with 0.3 lot size for a 1.63 win
or net profit of 0.98
It worked out very well, bringing three month profits up to 7.14
The secret is not having stops, and not being fazed by
delinquent scouts, there is invariably an opportunity to recoup
if you are patient
and not increasing the lot size very much, x3 seems about right,
where x3 should not lose you more than 2% of your account
This of course means that the majority of winners, which are
scout trades are very modest wins
You really have to get your head round that. They do add up!
We’ve seen that, albeit with a cents account, Profits triple in three
months
Providing that can be sustained, you could increase both scout and
back up lot sizes proportionally
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I’ve been watching Gold on your behalf!!! LOL!!!
Well done.
Tacking
A yachting term I believe
I feel thats what I’m doing. and that the skill in tacking
is at least 90% of my methodology
simply put, a lot of trades win but some don’t
I watch them closely and usually there is an opportunity
to re enter at x3 the scout size
Some of these triple size bets win for a very modest TP
but reasonable profit.
some don’t seem to go exactly according to plan
and this is the only sticking point in the equation.
Once you’ve entered at x3 you can’t just let it run in
the wrong direction.
That could be hundreds of pips which is simply not viable
So if it doesn’t seem to be going according to plan, I have
been getting out for either small profit or breakeven.
BUT, and here’s the thing, I STILL leave the original scout trade open
So the original scout trade is still scouting, it suggested go in bigger,
I did, but it didn’t work out. so quickly get out of the second trade
with no harm done, and even possibly a little good done
Then patiently wait for another setup. This situation is unlikely to
be ongoing
ie scout trades usually win, and if they don’t the second x3 trade
probably will. If that fizzles out and gives no compelling reason
to stay in the trade … get out quick!
Now the scout trade might give another setup for yet another
x3 position. At a modest TP that should win
If it fizzles out again, what to do?
I’m undecided, either close everything as no big loss on scout trades,
or just keep waiting for another setup until you either breakeven
on the campaign or even make some profit.
This last scenario is the only sticking point now
The skill in knowing when to retire the campaign, or when to keep
hanging on ( in quiet desperation? )
Of course, desperate money will always lose
so I think there is no system rule that can be stipulated here
On a good day I can close the x3 trade for perhaps the third time
and, in a very buoyant mood , look forward optimistically to the
next opportunity to hopefully profit from the campaign
but on a bad day, I might just feel doom laden, that this is a
mug’s game, the odds are stacked against me. If that is the
prevailing psychology it is very likely to prove to be a self fulfilling
prophecy and I will always find a way to not end in profit.
The accounts above are a little misleading
7.25 profit since May 1st, not three months
but the breakdown is encouraging!
Profit for May =1.71
June = 2.27
July ( first week only) = 3.27
In other words, I made almost as much over the last week
as I did during all of May and June combined.
That would indicate progress
I’m doing something right
but here is a screenshot which is my only real problem trade.
I can’t see any obvious solution
I’ve opened a long and short position.
I know that doesn’t seem logical but it forces me to focus on
which one to close. I could just close the x3 trade for a 0.31 loss
but then I would be too frightened to re enter
so I am in effect forcing the issue. the scout trade at the moment
is the biggest DD
This is precisely the kind of situation that is really holding me
back.
I must relax. I am trading at a very comfortable level
I suppose what I am saying is that I don’t have a clearly defined
‘Exit Strategy’
I think such a strategy will evolve, but it isn’t clear at the moment.
Ee see in the screenshot that ADX has signalled the exhaustion
of the downtrend
so an uptrend is now quite likely in progress, but price action
and Stochastics are indicating consolidation
so I am probably waiting for a breakout of consolidation
If the D- cuts above D+ ADX that might strongly indicate
a Sell signal and close the long position
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Here is a good example of how x3 position
might make good on a strategy #2
If all goes well it will win 0.64 on x3
and lose about 0.34 on scout
about 0.30 net profit will be quite ok
btw it feels right to simply refer to the second
recovery position as an x3. very brief and I
know exactly what I mean
it is a rescue trade and I was considering
naming first and second positions
‘Scout’ and ‘United States Cavalry Rescue Trade’
I think I will stick to scout and x3 as life is very short
This is a scout trade that went horribly wrong but
might be making good after all
a delinquent scout like the parable of the prodigal son
who went astray but eventually repented and returned
home
note exhaustion on the up move
Finally, just about worst case scenario
the x3 is not working out and needed to be closed
before incurring serious DD
This is clearly a case of getting it wrong, it looks quite
obvious that x3 needed to be closed
its not always this clear cut
Hey.
Just remember my NUMEROUS warnings on this type of thing:
Add a GAZILLION separate positions if you like. But just make darn sure that the TOTAL loss on ALL of those positions COMBINED does not exceed your risk percentage (whether it be 1%, 2%, 5%, you get the picture). Ignore this and it will come back to bite you one day. And in a big way too.
Had a couple of chunks taken out of my 
because of doing this!!
KC
The chunks have just not been big enough or often enough. You’ll get there I assure you!!! LOL!!!
The secret is keeping position size very small
I have completely closed the EU trade above
Lost 0.39 on scout trade and 0.28 on x3 trade
total loss -0.67
I am not looking to re enter because I don’t trust EU
any further than I can throw it, never have done. I don’t
trade CHF, and EU may well be joining it soon.
but this was an obvious trade to close, control is
certainly needed, and anything resembling Martingale
is sure to end in tragedy
most of my open trades, whether DD or not seem to
be cooperating quite well today, so far.
