Thanks for the clarification and valued input
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The 2.31 profit for June may be sustainable
as my three month profit is 6.15 and that includes a ton
of mistakes!
but I am open to the same accusation raised against rrrm2,
that I only record winners.
to exaggerate ā¦ you could open 50 random trades blindfolded
without stops and only close them as they went into profit
you could easily see 20 straight winners on your account history,
but what is the state of the remaining 30 live trades? If
they are all DD to the point where the broker is about to pull
the plug, this is no victory at all!
I am not in that position, but I do not feel anyone should be too
impressed with a trader who only records winners. That isnāt
me exactly, I do close some small losers, but I do allow scout
trades plenty of time and breathing space and that does
incur DD
but the sc below illustrates what I mean
The two previous losers werenāt losers in hindsight. we see
they both would have made nice profit, but I was too scared to
give them the room they needed.
As you can see, I have gone in once again with a view to
not making that mistake.
The Model Campaign
Gold, discussed above has proven to be a model
trade campaign
It was a perfect Strategy #2 setup, despite the very
ominous contrary BBs
It lost 0.65 at 0.1 position size
When we had a bearish Pin bar supported by a very steep
bearish DiNapoli I went in again with 0.3 lot size for a 1.63 win
or net profit of 0.98
It worked out very well, bringing three month profits up to 7.14
The secret is not having stops, and not being fazed by
delinquent scouts, there is invariably an opportunity to recoup
if you are patient
and not increasing the lot size very much, x3 seems about right,
where x3 should not lose you more than 2% of your account
This of course means that the majority of winners, which are
scout trades are very modest wins
You really have to get your head round that. They do add up!
Weāve seen that, albeit with a cents account, Profits triple in three
months
Providing that can be sustained, you could increase both scout and
back up lot sizes proportionally
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Iāve been watching Gold on your behalf!!! LOL!!!
Well done.
Tacking
A yachting term I believe
I feel thats what Iām doing. and that the skill in tacking
is at least 90% of my methodology
simply put, a lot of trades win but some donāt
I watch them closely and usually there is an opportunity
to re enter at x3 the scout size
Some of these triple size bets win for a very modest TP
but reasonable profit.
some donāt seem to go exactly according to plan
and this is the only sticking point in the equation.
Once youāve entered at x3 you canāt just let it run in
the wrong direction.
That could be hundreds of pips which is simply not viable
So if it doesnāt seem to be going according to plan, I have
been getting out for either small profit or breakeven.
BUT, and hereās the thing, I STILL leave the original scout trade open
So the original scout trade is still scouting, it suggested go in bigger,
I did, but it didnāt work out. so quickly get out of the second trade
with no harm done, and even possibly a little good done
Then patiently wait for another setup. This situation is unlikely to
be ongoing
ie scout trades usually win, and if they donāt the second x3 trade
probably will. If that fizzles out and gives no compelling reason
to stay in the trade ā¦ get out quick!
Now the scout trade might give another setup for yet another
x3 position. At a modest TP that should win
If it fizzles out again, what to do?
Iām undecided, either close everything as no big loss on scout trades,
or just keep waiting for another setup until you either breakeven
on the campaign or even make some profit.
This last scenario is the only sticking point now
The skill in knowing when to retire the campaign, or when to keep
hanging on ( in quiet desperation? )
Of course, desperate money will always lose
so I think there is no system rule that can be stipulated here
On a good day I can close the x3 trade for perhaps the third time
and, in a very buoyant mood , look forward optimistically to the
next opportunity to hopefully profit from the campaign
but on a bad day, I might just feel doom laden, that this is a
mugās game, the odds are stacked against me. If that is the
prevailing psychology it is very likely to prove to be a self fulfilling
prophecy and I will always find a way to not end in profit.
The accounts above are a little misleading
7.25 profit since May 1st, not three months
but the breakdown is encouraging!
Profit for May =1.71
June = 2.27
July ( first week only) = 3.27
In other words, I made almost as much over the last week
as I did during all of May and June combined.
That would indicate progress
Iām doing something right
but here is a screenshot which is my only real problem trade.
I canāt see any obvious solution
Iāve opened a long and short position.
I know that doesnāt seem logical but it forces me to focus on
which one to close. I could just close the x3 trade for a 0.31 loss
but then I would be too frightened to re enter
so I am in effect forcing the issue. the scout trade at the moment
is the biggest DD
This is precisely the kind of situation that is really holding me
back.
I must relax. I am trading at a very comfortable level
I suppose what I am saying is that I donāt have a clearly defined
āExit Strategyā
I think such a strategy will evolve, but it isnāt clear at the moment.
Ee see in the screenshot that ADX has signalled the exhaustion
of the downtrend
so an uptrend is now quite likely in progress, but price action
and Stochastics are indicating consolidation
so I am probably waiting for a breakout of consolidation
If the D- cuts above D+ ADX that might strongly indicate
a Sell signal and close the long position
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Here is a good example of how x3 position
might make good on a strategy #2
If all goes well it will win 0.64 on x3
and lose about 0.34 on scout
about 0.30 net profit will be quite ok
btw it feels right to simply refer to the second
recovery position as an x3. very brief and I
know exactly what I mean
it is a rescue trade and I was considering
naming first and second positions
āScoutā and āUnited States Cavalry Rescue Tradeā
I think I will stick to scout and x3 as life is very short
This is a scout trade that went horribly wrong but
might be making good after all
a delinquent scout like the parable of the prodigal son
who went astray but eventually repented and returned
home
note exhaustion on the up move
Finally, just about worst case scenario
the x3 is not working out and needed to be closed
before incurring serious DD
This is clearly a case of getting it wrong, it looks quite
obvious that x3 needed to be closed
its not always this clear cut
Hey.
Just remember my NUMEROUS warnings on this type of thing:
Add a GAZILLION separate positions if you like. But just make darn sure that the TOTAL loss on ALL of those positions COMBINED does not exceed your risk percentage (whether it be 1%, 2%, 5%, you get the picture). Ignore this and it will come back to bite you one day. And in a big way too.
Had a couple of chunks taken out of my 
because of doing this!!
KC
The chunks have just not been big enough or often enough. Youāll get there I assure you!!! LOL!!!
The secret is keeping position size very small
I have completely closed the EU trade above
Lost 0.39 on scout trade and 0.28 on x3 trade
total loss -0.67
I am not looking to re enter because I donāt trust EU
any further than I can throw it, never have done. I donāt
trade CHF, and EU may well be joining it soon.
but this was an obvious trade to close, control is
certainly needed, and anything resembling Martingale
is sure to end in tragedy
most of my open trades, whether DD or not seem to
be cooperating quite well today, so far.
Iām on board with this!!
Silly questionā¦ did the x3 warrant openning based on your strategy? Not sure which/strat trigger you are using. Would have to go back and reread.
This is great! Less losing is more winning.
KC
Yes, I believe I entered x3 at a valid Strategy #2 setup, which failed
as did the first 0.1 scout position
I believe EU is far more prone to double cross you, but I will
monitor that situation, or backtest when I get a chance
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Seems like you are āhitting your stride!!ā
KC
yes, I hope so, but approaching peak holiday season
with low volatility. extreme caution in august
The weekend starts here!
A nice 78 pip winner. It looked to be reversing and I
didnāt want things going wrong over the weekend
so I cashed in just before the market closed for the
weekend
but the market didnāt close, its only Tuesday!
a careless mistake but no harm done
this time
A Synopsis of strategy #1
price bounces off MA50 white arrow
bounces off HTF 20 orange arrow
bounces off MA20 once blue arrow
now seems to be reacting to MA50 again white arrow
No guarantee of anything but the odds are in
favour of price moving down from 50
win or lose, this is basically how the strategy works,
although we wouldnāt go in at every arrow as this
is a trend following system
Stochastic at the bottom of the āboundāā¦ massive resistance zone dating back as far as June 2016ā¦
Trying to breakout?.. Be very surprised if it goes far below hereā¦ the only way is upā¦
I would agree. Iām looking for 28 pips to Breakeven on scout
and x3 position
I may have confused the issue by referring to Strategy #1
as a trend following system when it isnāt really. In other words
the trend isnāt my friend until the end
Maybe it would be more accurate to call it āScalping in the
direction of the trendā.
If the price closes above 50, my strategy is null and void
and I would have to assume your prognosis is correct
However, I wouldnāt go long because neither of my
strategies are giving a Long signal.