Here are all the others, self explanatory hopefully
AUDNZD has retraced badly, but it will come around for a profit.
I’ve arrowed the very likely scenario. we’ll see how it plays out
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A few thoughts on perspective:
The USDCHF is going horribly against me, as we see
in the first screenshot named ‘doomsday’
but when we step back and look at the bigger picture, we see that price
has just reached the peak of where it always reaches over the last year
It may breakout to make new highs at some point, but will almost
certainly revert to mean as it has done every single time so far
since October 2017
so what we are seeing isn’t exactly ‘doomsday’, just the ‘same old same old’
Again, sometimes when price goes ‘horribly’ against me,
its simply the result of the system working perfectly
on a lower time frame, as we see in this screenshot
it is becoming very apparent that without patience you
have very little chance of success in this game
I have total confidence in this system, I have confidence
in all my open positions
but they are not going my way!
it’s true. that neither the world, nor the Forex market, revolves
around me.
My turn will come, things will suddenly turn in my favour,
maybe within the next two weeks, or maybe before
Christmas, but there is absolutely nothing I can do
to speed the process up.
There is no substitute for patience
My position on Cable has gone against me, I’m
down around 100.00, way past where anyone would have
placed a stop
But this is a temporary setback, and the more often this
happens, the more the mind and emotions are trained
to view the markets in a different perspective
When the big players see Cable edging further and further down,
they are not exactly crying in their beer, on the contrary, they
are the very ones manipulating price, in readiness for the big killing
they are certain to be making
it may not come today or this week, they don’t care, they are not
exactly depending on the next win to pay the rent.
This system does really open your eyes to that truth
This really is all a game
So in place of panic and despair, I am actually starting to get
a slightly smug feeling, I do actually get it
price will cut right up through the bands and, while I’m in
my cynical mode I will add…
that the more that things go ‘wrong’, as price refuses to rally,
the greater the move when it does happen!
I’ve check this over and over, when price merely tiptoes past
lower band, it will only rally to upper band and vice versa
but when it moves so far from bands that you ‘have no choice’
but to close your losing position, sure enough it will rally not
merely to upper band, but hundreds of pips beyond, invariably!
so there is not a chance in a million I am closing my Cable
position, instead I have opened a new 0.2% risk size position,
and if I get anymore downward spiraling nonsense I will
continue to add on, just as the big players are wont to do,
so will I
and while I am in a beyond cynical mode, I have just had
a very sharp flash of insight
it was explained to me by one of the internet’s leading and
more popular mentors, how that ‘Averaging’ is a mug’s game,
and he proved it mathematically, that if you keep adding on
to a losing position, you merely reach the point of no return,
and that is how stubborn newbies blow their accounts.
He was convincing, and I’ve often repeated his ‘expert’
wisdom. What a blind fool I have been!
It is true, that just about everything you are taught in Forex
is a lie
I know for a certainty that price always reverts to mean, you
just need either deep pockets or very small lot sizes, and
most importantly you need patience!
at the moment my positions are panic inducing! if I don’t
close some of my biggest losers I will lose all the
profit I have made!! (sarcasm)
It’s true, Forex isn’t for the feint hearted, it is absolutely
a game of psychology, just as much as is Poker
I know I have a winning hand, and I’m calling everyone’s bluff!
82% of clients were short USDCHF. How many took
the breakout and had their subsequent Stop taken out?
Once you really get this, once you view the Forex
market through the lens of manipulation, it is impossible
to go back to conventional trading
Of my most significant wins this month, 23 wins could have yielded
4,687 pips, I however, cautiously settled for just 42% or 1,929 pips.
I could have made double
Yes, but it’s not that straightforward as quite a number I called
quite well eg 90/108
but generally I am undercutting myself by half
although, of course, you can never call the absolute
top or bottom, nevertheless I seem to be erring on
the side of caution.
Several weeks ago, I recall writing that I would play
safe to build up a record of wins for psychological purposes
so very loosely, it isn’t about simply extending TP indiscriminately
There is a science at play here
The guiding principle must be, that price will likely exceed above
bands to the extent that it previously just exceeded below bands
So let us say, that price plunged 450 pips below bands, regardless
of where you entered, best guess is that price will peak at around
450 pips above bands
obviously, this is very ball park
so reach for the stars, but when you see price faltering at a supdem
level 70% + of the way, maybe a good time to cash in, we will
always leave something on the table, but preferably not too much
sorry to be a doom sayer but if you go back to 2010 GBP USD hasn’t reverted to the mean. Back then it was 170 and it has gone down ever since.
I use the term simply as Siegel’s truism that financial returns average out
over time
You could argue that Cable will never return to 1.7108, and I would argue that it
definitely will, on the basis that it is such a significant level historically, but more
importantly statistically, it is also a missed weekly pivot, and price always reverts,
and eventually hits missed weekly pivots.
Certainly it could take a long, long time and no one would tout that as a viable
system
So even though I may be technically right, it would be a Pyrrhic victory to
have to wait twenty years to be prove the point
In the context of this thread, I mean price always returns to the bands, invariably
for a good profit, and although technically, price may rarely revert to the bands for a loss, it would not likely be catastrophic, possibly no worse than break even
Not such a bad month after all. October closed with a 9.2% profit on
the month, despite the week 1 fiasco.
but encouragingly today, I have hit 10,000,00 for the first time from a
8,810,00 start, almost 1,200.00 profit real money that I could go out
and spend.
But the market gives and the market takes away.
But at least now I have a 1,200,00 buffer, I could withdraw my money
and just trade risk free on broker money, but that would slow down
growth obviously.
I want to deposit more, but will check the situation mid December
thanks for that. I am fascinated with your technique and will possible try it myself. Best of luck
I have opened two new positions, with plenty of Limit orders.
Generally, they are very small positions, but more profitable where
price has veered further away from bands
If price deviates no further, I will not make a big profit, but it all
adds up, and more importantly, risk is kept to an absolute
minimum
I am actually willing price to go against me!
just a little bit further to trigger my buy limit order, it
will make such a big difference to profit. I doubt that
price will keep moving down after that, but if so, it simply
means more profit as I add further limit orders.
Its a great perspective, if you are completely confident that
price will cut up through bands, because it has happened
so many times, indeed, it always happens, in which case
the more positions you snap up the better
the opportunity to buy low, then buy more even lower, knowing
that the store price will rocket up fairly soon, is not exactly a
new concept, very basic economics
Three more
but opening trades is becoming quite effortless now.
I seem to know where to place the Limit orders, and
even have greater clarity on exits.
Don’t really even need supdem indicator
place TP just below/above area of congestion
I’m already up to around 10,200,00 today
that’s 1,400,00 profit in a month.
my next real milestone target isn’t a percentage profit
or pips gained
I want to hit 10,810,00
that will be exactly 2,000,00 profit real money.
that will give me far more confidence than the first
possible fluke thousand, the second thousand definitely
won’t be a fluke.
I’m looking forward to making a bigger deposit, but
I’m not going to act rashly
amazing! made just under 10% October but just two days later
up 17%!
down a bit now, which is normal for Friday evening
Have made just one ammendment, I have placed a stop
at break even on AUDNZD
its an ugly looking set up now. entered too near bands,
no reason to believe price will go very far up, in might
just as likely go down as far as I can see - weekly
ambiguous.
no confidence at all in this trade. if it wants to try for
distal band I might get out there, but if it tries to double back
past entry, I’m not interested, I’m out.
I really don’t like opposing slopes. If I should introduce
two filters it should be
- Avoid opposing slopes
- Only enter at major deviation from bands, or place Limit orders there
Equity is highest it’s ever been, and the only bugbear
is USDCHF below. I won’t lose, but 14 days and its
still in DD, and it may literally be Christmas before
I see a little profit.
Its just treading water. If the slope was reversed
patience would likely be rewarded eventually,
but because slope is adverse, I must open
minimal Lot size, which means waiting several
weeks for almost no return
all the while, the slopes are moving against me.
I really don’t like this pair and will be very pleased
to close this trade at earliest opportunity
if it moves below supdem zone, I will place a
stop, fully expecting it to double back for a small
loss. it will be worth it to be free of this pair.
I entered too close to adverse sloping bands
truthfully, its not about money, this trade is an
embarrassment, whereas most of my trades
were once embarrassing, I’m actually quite
ok with all of them at the moment, even those
not yet in profit, as I can at least justify them,
and they will probably do very well hopefully.
but this one is just a messer
I see already, that the profits are where I
have gone 0.5% risk lot sizing (max) at
a good deviation from price, where there
is beneficient slope on bands
in other words, go in with maximum risk
on the very best set ups, and possibly
not even bother with mediocre set ups
I think Swissy taught me that
Horrific drawdown across the board!
but a marked upgrade in setups ironically.
for example, all Daily setups show a nice Beneficient
slope on Weekly time frame, which has to be the
ultimate failsafe
It was the surge in NZD and AUD that caused such massive
divergence from bands
I kept on opening new positions but price kept on
drawing away from bands
of course, the greater the distance price is 'stretched’
from bands, the further it will spring back for massive
profits
in theory…
every system works until it stops working
so with most if not all of October’s profits gone, I’m
at something of a rubicon
I’m either living in a fool’s paradise, and will just see
the rest of my bank evaporate, as most eventually do
or, if I just keep my nerve, and have the courage of
my convictions, I may see my account double, maybe
in January - not likely sooner as price really has
travelled a long way from bands, and of course my
TPs are far the other side of bands.
they are likely to be hit, but weeks not days, and I
would prefer not to leave my positions open over Christmas
and new year, but that’s not likely to be possible.
Its a waiting game
At the moment the momentum seems to have finally run
out of steam, and may start to reverse next week.
I refuse to look at my daily statement, or mt4 terminal.
I just periodically check the charts which I find I can
do more objectively without actually seeing the glaring
thousands in drawdown freaking me out emotionally.
Of course I can gauge if the drawdown is easing up just by
looking at the charts, so it makes sense to me not to
invite fear into the equation.
the required amount of patience is out of my comfort zone,
but patience can be cultivated
What this system does is scream out at you ’ close your
positions now before you blow your entire account!’
but if you do close your positions every time there is massive
drawdown, you are simply doing just that! you are blowing
your account, just a bit more slowly
On the other hand, if you stand your ground, TPs should
eventually be hit for a very big profit
If I do come out of this drawdown alive, I might need to think
about reducing Lot sizing even further
but it’s all correlated - the safer you play it, the less profit you
make
so I have to find my personal sweet spot, or toughen up
so far my DD is on brokers money, that can well be the secret,
if brokers money can act as a buffer against drawdown on my money
so for example, if I can sweat it out until my original 8k becomes
around 16k, possibly in a few months time, then maybe deposit
more into my account but work it so that maximum drawdown
shouldn’t exceed the 8k profit which was never mine in the first place
in other words, use that 8k profit as a psychological buffer,
the truth is you do need drawdown in this system, and its a hard
concept to internalize…
that the more price goes against you the better
you really need massive divergence from bands to make
the real money
and that inevitably means a lot of drawdown in the
process
I’ve said before, this system is not for the feint hearted
and for a certainty, if Lot sizes aren’t very small, you will
blow your account
In the unlikely event that should happen to me, I will
report it honestly, and it may well be a worthwhile
cautionary tale for others
but I will start again, but far more cautiously
Hopefully it won’t come to that
but there are less stressful ways of making money
than Forex trading
Jerome, good luck! Sit tight. I think you are correct that it will return. When is indeed the question.
I would agree lot size is the key. Of course you don’t know how far the price will travel but I’ve been experimenting with slicing the order thin .01 lots, spacing out my initial trades, and then as it looks like it’s starting to consolidate, heading to a potential reversal, start putting in orders just below that to be filled on the way back. (This example is on a price escalation turning to descend).
I had asked for clarification on this process in the @rrram2 forex fitness thread under trade journals. He replies in Post 77
What a journey!
KC
sweet loading up on DD myself ahead of the weekend, triple swap today at my main broker. Oil is -swap, but you would be wise to buy some OIL down here, it wont stay down here through the winter!
Key is managing the DD, DD is good! patience and pay that mortgage off, soon!
hahahah, manage your margin and leverage a bit more conservatively, I am DD almost $500 heading into the weekend and it feels GREAT! thats nearly 50% of my profits in this account over the last 60 days. but max DD for me that I enjoy is up to 100% of banked profits. Stop thinking you are going to blow your account, you could just ask me and Ill tell you 
I didnt see what pair you were so knee deep in. your practices are pretty good keep polishing, and disppel the lies, and hold on, if the ship is not going down, no sense jumping off and leaving your wallet behind!
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you got that right!~ 