Jerome's Journal

Priceless!!! LMAO!!

1 Like

Priceless it is! That quote is now up on my wall! Thanks guys for
the feedback, it’s much appreciated

1 Like

but I may have been overlooking the obvious, just as ball park
rule of thumb - swing highs and swing lows may be two green
candles followed by two red. of course not always that straightforward

but just by trying to identify the highs and lows at a reasonable divergence
from bands, might really save me a lot of unnecessary drawdown. it won’t
make me more profit, less probably, but it will take most of the stress out
of my trading and that is far more important.

What I’m thinking now, is don’t even think about going in until at least a
reasonable distance from bands, then wait for some evidence of a swing
high or low. I may be premature, but at least wait for some evidence

I tend to be trading the Daily, so when I get just one opposing candle,
why not check the H4 to see if there are two consecutive opposing candles,
signifying a likely reversal?

Perhaps that would be a better time to go in, or at least start to go in

as we see on NZDJPY I opened three positions prematurely, and seemingly
for no good reason

all is not lost, and they should add to the overall profit, but I would now
have preferred not to have entered so early but to have waited for
some concrete sign of a reversal which I’m only now getting

Hopefully, this might be a helpful guide for future trades

and of course, exits would be the same principle in reverse

@Jerome32 ,

To get an idea where price might be heading eventually it might be worth taking a look at where it’s been. This video adresses that as well as some other videos on YouTube by proact traders.

I’m not endorsing the service but I have found the videos they have posted are tremendously helpful.

Understanding supply and demand

KC

1 Like

Thanks for that. Like you I wouldn’t endorse him
or any other paid service, but there are definitely
a few nuggets there on his free stuff.

I love the way he keeps stressing ‘That’s what they do!’,

True, there are some scammy mentors around that
market ‘manipulation’, but in this case I think he
is genuine enough, and really does see what’s really
going on.

Although what he is doing is poles apart from what
I’m doing, or attempting to do, I am thinking very
seriously about the WOS wide open spaces principle

I’ve long since closed my swissy trade for a small
loss because it was just plain terrible, and likely
to be an irritation for a very long time

I also closed EURJPY and GBPUSD for a good profit,
even though there was much more to come, they didn’t
fit my present criteria ie opposing weekly bands ( sloping
wrong way )

I absolutely will not oppose weekly bands. price can deviate
from weekly bands by 6,000 pips or more

so although that wasn’t likely in the three positions I closed, I
just wanted to have a clean sweep, with no possibility of
drawdown of that proportion!

My remaining five open trades are all completely confluent
with the weekly bands, price is extremely divergent from
Daily bands, in short, perfect set ups

It is the more perfect set ups that tend to incur massive
drawdown ironically

but where price is so distant to bands, there surely can only
be profit as it must spring back eventually.

It does, but that raises a new question

I can now go on holiday for several weeks and when I next
check the charts, find price has cut right through bands
and hit my targets

I believe this is a highly probable outcome

but is that really my trading style?

I don’t think that it is

Here’s the problem, price does cut right through bands
but in waves, retracements, zig zags

call it whatever you like, but it doesnt hit TP, hundreds
of pips away in a straight line ( stating the obvious )
although it will get there in the end

but in the meantime, like now, you are faced with weeks
of tedious frustration, as price seems to be behaving,
then goes completely against you

( ‘Welcome to trading!’ I hear someone say )

Ok, true enough, but if I could eliminate as much
of that frustration as possible, I think I would

so how about…

filtering trades…

they must be confluent with Weekly
band slopes,

price must be conspicuously divergent from bands on
Daily charts and showing some sign of reversing, with
attention to H4 here. and if price continues to move away
from bands, only add on when there is another sign
of reversal. Hopefully, this should cut out a lot of premature
entries

So now to a critically important question, to me now, and
to all traders always…

when to exit?

If I am 300 pips below bands, there is a high chance price
will move to 300 pips above bands … eventually.

it looks so exciting in hindsight

but you really have to wait and suffer all sorts of emotional
turmoil as price does whatever it wants to do before
finally going your way

I think deep down I know the truth, that trading is only
minimally about finding the ‘winning system’ but mainly
about developing the mental toughness you need to
succeed in this game.

I know I don’t have that mental toughness, not yet at least.

Risk management is probably the most overlooked and
underrated aspect of trading, and that is directly related
to the emotional. psychological factors

So I immediately related to the WOS principle

taking your profit before the weeks of consolidation
and/or retracement hits you… would that be such a bad thing?

I’m not completely certain about this

but I have reworked my open positions

I know that price always returns to bands, usually cutting
right through and beyond

I also know that a very big impulsive move will definitely
retrace to 38% and very likely to 50% and even 61% and
beyond

I also accept that price will usually move through WOS
relatively quickly before getting snarled up in consolidation
or before it retraces

so I can see the sense in setting a very conservative TP
at around 38.2% fib where there is a WOS to that
level, and sure enough that fib level is often where
prior consolidation can be found

sometimes the WOS will extend to 50% fib, which
would suggest setting TP there

I can absolutely see the sense in this

my only reservation is that I know there are hundreds more
pips to be made by ‘Letting winners run’

but how is being snarled up in literally weeks of tight consolidation,
followed by a retracement almost back to my entry… how is that
‘Letting winners run’?

ultimately it is, if you have the patience and stamina to hang in
until the final victory.

Successful investors don’t worry about the daily fluctuations
and truthfully, I don’t think I would, if I was an investor

but I’m not an investor, and quite honestly I would prefer
my positions not to drag on for more than a few days

that might suggest moving down to H4 TF, in the direction of
Daily TF. That might be one possibility

In the meantime, here are screenshots of me aiming for both
38.2% or 50% where they are supported by WOS

Despite the horrifying DD, they are actually very compelling
trades, and I feel I could do worse than use these screenshots
as a template for all trades

Of the five trades, there is one that would not qualify completely…
I have targeted 38.2%, but WOS does not really extend that
far. The TP will almost certainly be hit, and what I have arrowed
isn’t a swing high, but might mark the end of WOS. I think the
WOS guy in the video would skip this in favour of the far more space
of WOS in the other charts

I’m obviously not too dogmatic about this, but we note how far more clean and compelling the other four charts are with regard to respecting WOS as a big TP criteria

At least, that’s how it seems to me at the moment

and here is the one that just does’t seem to shout out, 'Wide open space with
no obstructions ’ … actually, it might be interesting to see how it gets on, but
at any rate, this is my least favourite open trade

the WOS ( wide open space ) or FTA (first trouble area ) approach is a
tried and tested principle

I don’t know if it’s really best for my strategy.

yes it will make for small but fast profits

but all this mixing and matching of systems eg weekly
pivots are always hit, price should retrace 38.2% fib

it’s all true but maybe confusing the matter

My system is remarkably reliable as it stands ie

when price deviates rapidly and wildly from bands,
it always returns to bands, and more often than
not will cut right through bands.

so that really is the system, capturing the big move
back to the bands

so by looking for a faster and safer option, of just
targeting the WOS, or aiming for FTA,
maybe selling out.

so, let us say, my lot sizes were far smaller, would
I then be so keen to accept a very modest return by
jumping ship at the first sign of trouble?

price will return to the bands, that is the essence of
the system, I’ve identified that highly profitable pattern,
and now I seem to be set to completely ignoring that

I probably need clarity… price will return to the bands

Another thing I have just noticed EURNZD has fallen
800 pips, eleven consecutive Bearish candles

this has never happened before, but as soon as I put my
money down it happens - and there is no guarantee it stops
there!

So I really need to decide, am I really going to be governed by fear
and seek a new approach that basically is aimed more at getting
out of DD more than making serious profit?

or will I stick to my guns, and trust the system, trust that price will
always return to bands, even if not in one take?

Is this not why traders fail? that as soon as they go into DD, they
start changing the system instead of just being disciplined and
sticking with the system consistently?

even so, looking at the chart below, I must take note that the
impossible can happen!

whilst it is true that price will have to come within the bands at sometime in the future this can be achieved by the bands moving to price which is not what you want.
Still loving the journal and best of luck.

No, that is definitely not what I want! and this is precisely
what happens on lower time frames all the time.

but your concern reminds me of a broker’s advisor encouraging
me to trade more, because when price is outside Bollinger Bands
it must ‘return to mean’ as price remains within BB 95% of the
time

This is just an optical illusion, viewed in hindsight

The truth is price does whatever it likes with 0% regard to BB!

In actual fact, BB retrospectively encases price 95% of the time,
price does not respect BB any of the time, it just looks like that
in hindsight

The strategy I am using, and the bands I use, are far more reliable,
but obviously the same principle applies, regardless of appearances,
the bands are simply responding to price movement and in no way
can dictate price movement

However, If you enter at a big divergence from bands with the slope
on Daily in your favour, and confluent with weekly slope, you should be
alright

Even in the event that bands move to price rather than
price moving to bands it shouldn’t be catastophic

but much the same can be said for Martingale staking, with a good
win ratio system it works like magic! until the inevitable happens
and you blow your account

The real secret is Lot sizing, … I can see from current
EURNZD that you simply cannot predict how far price might
move against you once you’ve entered

just because it never moves more than 200 pips away
does not preclude the possibilty it could suddenly
move thousands of pips against you

the big players that move the markets are not bound by
bands on someone’s chart (sadly)

I don’t know how my current DD will turn out

will bands follow price in the wrong direction until
margin stop out?

it is possible.

I could deposit more funds, would that be throwing good
money after bad? again, that is unlikely but possible

there is an answer, and only one answer, very small Lot
sizes, controlling risk, along with controlling over confidence
and greed

a comprehensive reply, thank you. Whatever system you use there will be losers. I have been working on managing the losses and I think I have a system. It is in its early stages at the moment but showing promise. Its one drawback is it takes a lot of time and effort but it has enabled me to eliminate loss positions and it has the extra advantage of giving me confidence to trade more freely.

Good luck with that, eliminating loss positions sounds good
to me, giving you all important confidence

that’s precisely what I am currently learning the hard way,
when you are over exposed and everything goes wrong,
fear paralyses you, that feeling of being so out of control
is horrible, you can’t think positively, you tend to panic
and make wrong decisions

this morning all my positions seem to be finally turning
back to the bands, if that continues I hope I will learn
the lesson, and keep everything manageable from now on

you can make a lot of money very quickly in this game

and then lose it all twice as fast

Two new open positions

NZDUSD

interesting to gauge deviation in proportion to trendline,
and this time, if it wants to move 500 pips against me, I’m
ready for it, bring it on!

also GBPNZD note very nice support level

also GBPAUD will place Buy Stop above close of first Daily green candle, about
350 pips divergent from bands, can’t go any further ha ha

I have placed Limit Orders as far away as 825 pips away, so I
hope I’m ready for anything the market throws at me.

Note the Limit orders are at stategic supdem zones. simply,
they may or may not be reached. if they are, it just means
more profit. if they’re not hit there is nothing lost

Actually had the courage to check my equity for the first time
in a while

From 1st October 8,813.00 I peaked at 10,500,00 early this month,
only to reach rock bottom last Friday 16th with equity down to
8,039,00

Things have picked up over weekend and during today, and I’m
around 9,000,00 at the moment. so my account is actually in profit
and there is a chance I can exceed the 10,500,00 peak if prices
simply return to bands.

that’s all they have to do!

is it asking so much )

Actually Buy Stop entry on GBPAUD is only 265 pips away, there is a chance
it will continue returning to bands for a modest profit, but it is just as likely
to be a retracement before moving further down

I have just two Limit orders in place, the second over 800 pips from
bands. Both Limit orders are at significant levels

It doesn’t matter if it moves to bands now, or moves 800 pips away and
then moves back to bands

eventually it will have to cross back over the bands

and this is a very good case in point, to further answer Diablo’s
concern

instead of price moving up through bands for a profit, supposing
bands move down past entries?

you have to be clear that price and bands are not independent
of each other

so let us assume just about the worst case scenario, that price
moves away 800 pips from bands

this massive move will cause the bands to recalculate and shift down,
not likely more than 265 pips, but let us say 265 pips

the good news is that we are now positioned to make over 900 pips
profit, even though the profit on the original Buy Stop would
be minimal, we make a very big profit on the distant Buy Limit
orders

We actually do better when we go into deep drawdown

the secret is preparing for it financially and emotionally

if we only move toward the bands from the get go, we still
make around 365 pips as bands won’t sag under the weight
of the drawdown

if this happened all the time we would do very well as all
the profitable trades would mount up

if, on the other hand, we always returned after massive
drawdown, we would do far better

there is no way of predicting which category the trade
will fall into, so you have to prepare for massive DD,
but at the same time aim to make at least significant
profit if we only have the one original modest position

when all bases are covered, you avoid the stress which
can be quite taxing

You still have the issue of having to wait possibly weeks
for some of these DDish trades to mature

but that isn’t the problem I thought it would be

the problem is when you are stressed out of your
mind not knowing if you are going to blow your account,
and that stressed is prolonged over weeks

when it’s a matter of confidently waiting for the trades
to mature there is optimism in place of stress

This set up is classic, in that everything is covered and
no nasty surprises. This is how all future set ups
should look, more or less

One little touch is placing the Buy Stop order in just the right
place, if it can avoid being hit by a retracement so much the
better, but really it isn’t such a big deal, and it shouldn’t be
something to fear

I don’t think there is much more for me to do
except wait, maybe something to report by Christmas

but here’s something interesting I found on Youtube

It’s basically just four MAs

I’ll give them to you as someone is sure to ask

80 Simple Close
25 Simple High
14 Exponential High
6 Exponential High

the channel owner is 100% non commercial, he isn’t selling
anything, not even offering a free ebook or course, nothing
at all.

I’m not sure of the system rules, and I just look for MAs
to all cross over where price is other side of 80 SMA

I especially include the essence of the earlier video
provided by KC and only trade WOS

It seems to work quite well

but you can hear the original rules here

these are my first four trades

RETURNING TO MY BANDS STRATEGY

Everything always looks so conclusive and encouraging
in retrospect.

yes, eventually price always seems to spring back to
Bands and beyond

but then in real time, as soon as you put your money down,
it seems the market is out to get you.

It will suddenly move hundreds and hundreds of pips away
from the bands, and it seems there is no hope in sight, it
seems the drawdown will just continue unabated until
your account is completely blown

but looking at the example below, we see we were above
the Bands at point A, and it went down for around 267 pips to
lower band,

ordinarily at first glance it looks like another success story

but you really have to put yourself in that situation as though
it were real time, or strategy tester

Looking at point B, it doesn’t look such a big deal now, but at
the time, imagine how you would feel when what is now a
nice looking bearish wick would have been a solid candle
body, strongly indicating a lot more Bullish momentum

at the time it would have been very disheartening, but a day
or so later price did come down for 267 pip profit

Now look at far right of chart, we see we were doing ok, but now
price is going against us. disheartening.

but in a few weeks time you will be able to look back at this chart
and see, that despite the frustrating ups and downs, price did
eventually return to the bands. it always does

but the word ‘eventually’ is probably the operative word

Here is the absolute worst trade I made in ages

it was never really a set up in the first place

I opened this trade over a month ago. I closed it for a small loss which
I don’t regret

but if we look at the chart now, we see price did eventually come down
and return to Lower band for a 134 pip profit.

It really was never a set up in the first place, the biggest warning
I ignored was the ascending Weekly bands, ( that’s why I closed
the trade )

so if even the worst possible set ups return to bands for a profit,
the best, well thought out set ups should do well

but just to add, regarding the only real cause
for concern, that of bands shifting to meet price,
rather than price returning to Bands…

that’s precisely what happened here on USDCHF

you note I targetted the original lower band

price, sure enough, did hit the lower band, but
not at the original level of lower band!

this is the very worst case scenario that Diabolo
has alluded to a couple of times, and he is right,
it does happen!

So even though the bands did repaint ( quite badly
for Daily time frame )

nevertheless, if I had continued with the trade and
continued to tack, and adjust TP to the repaining
lower band, I still would have made 134 pips
profit.

It would have taken a month, and it wouldn’t
have been deserved

but arguably, this system might be modestly
profitable, even when you open the most idiotic,
non qualifying set ups

How much better when you wait for massive divergence
of price from bands, in direction of Weekly bands

You have mentiond a few times that a big DD (drawdown) is good and Rrrm2 also makes this observation. With hindsight surely this means that the entry could have been better. So I don’t see why it regarded as good. I would be grateful for your comments.
keep up the good work.

I know Rrrrm2 is quite keen on drawdown. His system
is a bit different to mine and he seems to open a lot of very
small positions. I don’t quite get it, but it does seem very
profitable.

I do however see the sense in having ‘I love Drawdown!’ as
a T shirt motif

If you can’t beat it, learn to love it

and here is the problem, you can’t beat it

It isn’t drawdown that’s good, that’s obvious, it’s what it represents

or what it can potentially represent

it can represent ever increasing loss and utter despair, and I
guess that would be the general consensus

but it can also represent ever increasing opportunity for profit

Why doesn’t Rrrm2 just wait and put his entire risk at the very
top/bottom?

simple answer, he doesn’t know where the absolute top/bottom
will be

so you can hold back from entering, in order to avoid drawdown,
which is very likely what you would get, but then you won’t make
any profit

or you can open more and more postions as price goes against you

and if that sounds suicidal, I would substitute the word ‘contrarian’

In rrrm2’s case he has been doing this a long time, and he knows
the further price seems to be moving in the ‘wrong’ direction, the
more profit he will make when price eventually returns

I see things exactly the same way although I may quite likely
prove to be more suicidal than contrarian at the moment

Once I have closed ( or broker closes ) my current positions
I will definitely be contrarian and not suicidal.

I will open less positions, far more spaced out and risk assessed
on far greater distance from entry. this will minimize drawdown
but not eliminate it

I need therefore to incur a lot of drawdown to reach my distant Limit
Order, and I need to trigger that distant Limit order in order to
make a lot of profit.

your question, is why not just place the distant limit order, and avoid
all the interim drawdown?

because you can’t know if price will reach it, so just keep opening
positions, and eventually you will have a position at the maximum
distance which is key to obtaining the greatest return

so the key to obtaining the maximum return is to incur as much
drawdown as possible

all positions go into drawdown before eventually becoming profitable

so the more you have the better, arguably

true, I just said I want fewer positions , but if I really had the courage of my
conviction,s my charts would be plastered with Limit Orders
just like Rrrm2

Drawdown is only bad if it ends in loss

Whilst making perfect sense to me, this is probably a nonsensical
answer

Perhaps if Rrrm2 would be kind enough to explain why he thinks
drawdown is ‘good’, and why he is aggrieved when he has low, or
no drawdown

that might prove to be more illuminating

thank you for your comprehensive reply. I will put the question to Rrrm2.
As you say it requires courage and confidence in one’s system to tolerate a large DD. This is where my loss management system comes into its own. Having operated it for sometime I am gaining in confidence that it works. Not 100% confident because experience tells me that just when you think that, the market throws up a curved ball.

A picture paints a thousand words

I can’t use my system on lower time frames because
bands repaint too much. I have adapted it for M15,
and as you can see, I am hoping for massive drawdown
so that all my Limit orders will be triggered for a profit

If I don’t get the drawdown I don’t get the profit

I hope Rrrm2 will confirm this is loosely speaking why
he seeks drawdown, but if not, I will be especially
interested to find out what other possible reason
he would wish for drawdown