On the last pair there were no set ups
but to return to yesterdays introduction to the strategy, on reflection
we don’t have the V shape pullback, nevertheless the setup is
screaming out Bearish at us… the MA is almost vertical!
So for a system that always wins, we see that probably
isn’t the case at all. I probably did better than 50%
but it’s been a learning curve
I didn’t mention allow enough pips to cover spread, in fact
that might limit currencies you trade on H1 or below.
I think I’ve seen enough to know, that even after the 90%
false positives, you need to be very selective
Some set ups are compelling, others less so.
How I would fare trading live is hard to say.
probably will have to wait until after holidays now
I do feel reasonably confident.
some set ups are just beautiful to look at, and I
do believe the majority would win at 1:1 RR
it may just boil down to walking away from
the rest
that’s usually the ultimate challenge for traders
Strong/Weak Analysis
I can’t believe I missed this topic completely
over the last year
Dennis has done a great job, and thanks to
Snowman for the links, I think his suggestion
to read up on that free material is wise advice
FINVIZ
Forex Early Warning
Be sure to use the holiday break to fully explore that 99% FREE site
The 35 Lessons are better than most paid for courses
Webinars are hidden at the bottom of that page, the Monday review is excellent
Unfortunately, some guys are judged by their manner, rather than
the quality of their contributions.
So already, I see some real potential here
When I look at my Pullback system on the Daily, but incorporating
S/W analysis, you wonder how you can possibly fail
of course you can, and possibly will, but I look forward to
testing out S/W alongside both my current systems
Already I have seen why I have had so much grief with
NZDCAD! if I had checked S/W it possibly could have
been avoided
but this past week how could I have missed AUDJPY
on Daily?
Absolutely beautiful
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Missed AUDJPY too after it’s the #1 SW ranking based on Dennis’.
Anyway how do you incorpate SW in your trading nowadays?
I haven’t done yet, but looking forward to using it in the new year, at the
very least, I won’t be shorting the strongest or buying the weakest by S/W
ranking
I’m not trading over the holidays but just looking at today’s s/w and pick
the best against worst, then wait for a valid entry. you note in the screenshot
this would be GBPCAD, but note that the last engulfing entry signal is ‘handmade’,
I painted it in myself, the indicator only prints Pinbar signals.
However, given the s/w rankings I wouldn’t have quibbled
Goes back to my opening post on this thread, extolling engulfing bars.
( this is a two part bar engulfing set up ) I think s/w rankings would give
me a lot more confidence to trade almost any valid signal
and this will be my first new year template
picking best of s/w rankings and entering on
pin bar
engulfing bar
break of fractal*
I use fractal box indicator, but you can simply use
Bill Williams fractal indicator on MT4
I’m effectively looking for return to, and bounce off
EMA21
I have very high hopes ( as always )
in the example below, NZDJPY, S/W rankings are screaming
Bearish from Daily to Monthly, so a possibility of letting some of the
trade run on
the template shows four engulfing entry signals, and lowest, for safety,
you could wait for break of fractal and cross over EMA21
So what of everything I’ve done over the last year?
I’ve learnt a lot, and will still be looking at break of trendline, asking
is price above or below bands? ( anticipating it will cross ), and if
accompanied by impressive S/W ranking, it will cross!
In the example above, all the entry signals appear before WOS
Certainly, waiting for WOS will greatly increase safety
At the moment, I would say S/W rankings combined with WOS
are the stand out factors
I would often expect to see familiar confluence of Divergence
and Harmonics
This is likely a conflict that will arise
A perfect set up, well below bands with Divergence and
an Engulfing entry signal, plus no less than 14 missed pivots
waiting to be hit
and a compelling S/W ranking, why hesitate?
Because there is no WOS
It’s bit like Pape,r Scissors, Stone
I would say WOS is critically important
but does a really compelling S/W ranking override a need
for WOS?
especially if on D,W and M?
My first reply was I would not trade against S/R ranking
so why would I trade a congested zone with no WOS
I would say a trade with such a conflict should be considered
guilty until proven innocent
time will tell
When you incorporate SW with price action signals. At what TF are you looking for an entry?
Don’t really know yet, that will become more apparent with experience
Meanwhile, my penultimate die hard trade has just closed for around
500.00, it sailed through WOS exactly as planned
I have remaining AUDCAD fairly small fry which should move through
WOS for a small loss
leaving NZDCAD about to enter it’s third month with a long, long way
to go to TP
I will be very lucky if I return to September balance, it could well be
four months much ado about nothing
but I’m glad there is now only one pair to seriously contend with
This is probably not the best day of the year to be
testing strategies, but I’m getting some interesting
results
eight demo trades
very strong trends on multiple currencies on all
eight pairs
ONLY three pairs are supported by S/W rankings
although not extreme disparity which I think is
probably key
Ironically all pairs are well in profit EXCEPT the
three with good S/W rankings! they are losing,
but only moderately, they may catch up.
Nothing conclusive here, if one currency is +0.14
against the dollar and the other is +0.34, +20 gap
but in perspective GBP is currently soaring, and
we note +0.77 and against CAD -0.04 which is
a gap of 81, a four times greater gap, and looking
at the charts we see price soaring.
same for GBPNZD. however greatest disparity
should be GBPCHF but it’s not reflected on
the charts.
I had already been warned how perverse a currency
CHF can be, I already don’t trade it
Actually, my EURJPY trade has now moved well into
profit so 6/8 currently winning, the other two will
probably follow
I’m also monitoring the WOS factor, and NZDJPY
is the one pair that stands out today, despite it’s
current DD
I would be really pleased if this pair confirmed my analysis
I really believe price tends to move through the open
space, however I have been quite shocked to note
how the WOS guy mentioned previously is not what
he seems
he charges $5,000 first year and his Live room members all
confirm he can’t trade to save his life. ( FPA )
I went through one of his free lessons last night and I could
see how he was mixing fact with fiction
I’ve always noted that marketeers selling 'Manipulation’
are the biggest scam artists out there. I thought this
guy was different but he isn’t
I still agree with his views on WOS, but Divergence
does not always signal reversal, not be any means!
similarly Fib does not always give you precise exit points
and I’m now guessing, ‘you must enter on 10 min charts
like the Big Boys’ to ensure consistent wins, as the 5min
standard MT4 TF is used by the Big Boys to stitch you up
Wow, priceless insider info!!
if all the above that was true, why does he consistently lose in
his trading room?
in the end, we can read up, and watch videos, but we need
to really thoroughly test everything ourselves
FIRST WINNER usdjpy RR 1:1
Keeping check on multiple TF % strength, plus D and W S/R ranking ( if any )
Was WOS present?
If Weekly % opposing, have MA’s crossed on Weekly?
As with everything over last 16 months, some of the above may fall by wayside.
If it doesn’t prove to be especially significant I will ditch it
6/7 remaining trades are in profit
This thread is a Journal, not a System thread
Reading up over the Holiday period
''if a pair is bouncing up and down in a tight or fairly wide price range and looks difficult to trade, it probably is. The market is not always trending or oscillating in perfect, smooth cycles and patterns. Trading a market like this is riskier and the incidence of stop outs is more frequent. Trade durations are shorter, or trading should be avoided. Another option we like is to set price alerts on either side of the cluster so we can be notified when the pairs are breaking out of the clusters or ranges. Breakouts are easier to trade, in general
Layers of support or resistance can also referred to as choppy markets, tight ranges, clusters, tunnels, and not to confuse anyone with terminology but they are all danger signs pointing to riskier trades. Trading pairs with a lot of room to move up or down, and not stuck in clusters, is easier to trade and profit from.’’
In other words, what this writer is saying, is that it makes sense to
trade WOS
Taken from forexearlywarning, a free Forex resource site. this is for my personal
reference only, it is not a solicitation. I don’t recommend others either visit or
avoid this site
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Remember this concept - currency pairs move because one currency is strong or the other is weak, or both. The reason clusters form is because both currencies are strong or weak, or both currencies are not moving. This simple fact is ignored by almost all traders but can be easily verified by the charts.
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Even when a price alert is triggered, it could just be a spike
or a fake out. Analysis of the individual strength of each
currency against each of the other currencies, will indicate
whether the break out is valid
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Support and Resistance
All trends start and end at support and resistance, all consolidations, retracements and reversals start at support and resistance. Setting price alerts can be useful in monitoring for price breakouts and for initiating trades. Support and resistance levels can also be used for setting price targets and estimating exit points. Looking for pairs with lots of pip potential and avoiding clusters and layers of support and resistance on your trade entries will improve your trading and increase the number of pips you capture week after week.
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For HTF Ranging Markets
Example:
For selling the AUD/CAD you can verify the sell using the AUD pairs, or the CAD pairs. If the AUD is weak across all pairs you can sell the AUD/CAD, or if the CAD is strong on all pairs, traders can also verify the sell this way. It is also possible to use both groups of pairs to verify the sell trade
In these circumstances, the total distance of prior move, or it’s distance
from Bands, is far more valid
Smooth oscillations on the larger time frames are excellent forex trend reversal patterns.
In a strong trending market, you can also have reversals. If a currency pair drops for many days in the direction of the major trend, then stalls and goes sideways, as a trader you have to think about a reversal. So if you missed the large move down start to look for the reversal back up.
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Individual currencies drive the market movements, not indicators, to match this you have to analyze individual currencies daily and get rid of all of the technical indicators that have failed forex traders for years. Don’t trade indicators trade currencies.
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