Chart Patterns
vary in their success rate
but head and shoulders above all of them is the
Head and Shoulders pattern with a very impressive
84% success rate, and 79% when inverted
http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm
Free resource site with only one commercial product relating
to picking Stocks, not relevant to Forex traders and not
recommended in any way.
Good thread here mate!
I like that we think alikeā¦
Thanks Max, Iāve certainly had a few aha moments over the holidays
But this might also be a useful tool, a free spreadsheet that analyses
Trend strength for you, and then tells you what pairs to focus on
Then I compare Strong/Weak ranking, and if we get a match, look
for an entry signal
The spreadsheet is from a Free resource site. The only thing they
charge for is a currency strength indicator, which you can get FREE
from Dennis here, or OANDA, FX street, Myfxbook, Finviz,
Tradingview, and countless other free sites, so Iām not quite sure
why anyone would pay for a freely available resource.
Here is the free spreadsheet, if anyone wants it
Spreadsheet.xlsx (821.1 KB)
Out of courtesy I must mention it is provided free by earlyforexwarning
it looks like the screenshot below
On the left side, where you can quickly enter data with their drop down menu,
you can see trend strength in GBPCAD and NZDCAD
But how well are the individual currencies trending against all
the other currencies? Not really thought about that before
Is it over complicating matters?
this same site takes exactly the same approach to Strong/Weak
analysis
but it occured to me that they probably based this spreadsheet
on their quite sophisticated currency strength program
so why not convert it back again?
How do you do that? Not sure, but here is my cunning plan
On the left input columns, forget about trends āUp Down Noneā
but replace with question, is Base currency Dark Blue for Up,
Dark Red for Down, and Neutral for No Trend, do this on H4, D1 W1
This should provide a very similar result to their currency strength program.
You will see on the right, which currency is strong or weak against all the
other major currencies.
Finviz just compares currencies to $, Dennis I believe compares to Yen
Is there any real need to complicate matters further?
Probably not, Dennis and his colleagues are doing great, one making
45% profit first month
It may have some psychological benefit, if you believe your analysis
is ultra precise
For similar reasons I recently acquired a tool that gives the trend strength
on each TF as a %
So it should work like this
Trend strength W D H4 90% 86% 84%
S/W Analysis W D H4 Strong Up Strong Up Strong Up
Iāve won my first two out of two with this approach, on new yearās eve too.
the only extra factor is checking for sufficient space for price to move
Having slept on the matter I have a new global insight
āIndicators are toys for boysā
I fear there may be more truth in that than many of us
care to admit
I donāt know how useful the above spreadsheet is,
admittedly it is more a tool than indicator, but it
still indicates where the strength is
However we do it, I want to see S/W disparity on
Weekly and Daily, there are plenty of sites that
are excellent for this. I donāt find precise %
amount is necessary, dark red or dark blue
tells me all I need to know. pale colours or
white tell me to keep away.
so at the moment Yen is the stand out
and there is trend strength on Yen pairs
However
that is not the green light to re enter!
I have indeed just re entered on NZDJPY and
I think the screenshot should tell you why
Now, we have very similar S/W and Trend strength readings on AUDJPY
but I wonāt be re entering
For the same reason! A quick glance to far left will tell you why
Is it possibly that the Yen is so strong it will power past that
prior congestion zone?
yes, it is very possible, quite likely even
but if I am going to re enter a Yen pair, I would prefer
NZDJPY where there is still more space to move
Supposing NZDJPY loses and AUDJPY moves down another
200 pips?
Things like that happen in Forex, but I am very, very clear
I am doing the right thing
and it is only by sticking to the rules do you have the edge over time
Of my eight New Years Eve trades five won well for RR 1:1 or better
One lost
Two are still current and doing well
I have re entered on NZDJPY and may re enter the Pullback
on USDJPY
On Trend Strength
Obviously, when the Trend Strength % is too good, it
can indicate the trend is unsustainable
Sometimes I find H4 = 85% D1 = 80% but Weekly showing
either a low or even opposite directional reading
that may not be a problem, as very high readings indicate
the trend is well established, so a well established trend
on D1 may be new on W1
I look for a cross of MAs on weekly to support the high %
read out on the H4 and D1
as there is rarely a high reading on Weekly, so I would
miss most winning trades
but Weekly is valuable for determining WOS
What about the Swing trades of last year? Below and Above bands?
They worked extremely well, until I got caught out on NZDCAD,
Iām still locked in that trade after months!
The big, big, downside, pointed out by a couple of the guys,
is that the Bands do move, and over time they can move
considerably
Repaint is not really the word, but recalculate in a most
unhelpful way.
I am not dispensing with that strategy, but if Iām not
using Stops, I need to rethink, to ensure I donāt
get locked into trades permantly
MY wins last couple of days may last about 7 hours
That feels about right
Four months Plus does not feel right, its not my kind
of trading, I want to be in and out within a few days
I have just re entered USDJPY on H1, Pin Bar off MA
a good a reason to enter as any
but plenty of WOS on Weekly, about 435 pips to TP
We may not go the distance, I will keep an eye on
the current Yen strength
but we already had one good win on USDJPY
My only loser so far, USDCAD, had Neutral S/W rating
I was seduced by Trend Strength alone
Interesting
goooood insight, and youāre definitely right about everything you stated. Itās much safer to trade after a breakout happens, rather than just trading within a consolidated area
How did you make out on that flash crash after the trading day turned today? Good lord. Yen pairs melted.
Flash crash?
what you mean like the 571 pip move in one hour on AUDJPY?
Who saw that coming!
I want this over tonight!
There is so much volatility on Yen, especially AUDJPY
my three month DD is now down from 3,500.00 to 370.00
I donāt want it to return to that level again, I would like
a clean slate.
it could all be over soon
I just partially closed my worst NZDCAD position to
reduce liability in case it all goes mad again
DD down to 247.00
No interest in profit at this stage, moderate loss welcome
after last three months
Better put the coffee on, could be a long night!
S/W Rating Strategy
Doing very well. All closed in profit except one pair
which had a neutral S/W rating
Won twice on USDJPY and NZDJPY,
Flash crash won me 434 pips in one hour on USDJPY
on Demo of course
This seems like a very reliable and simple system
Band System
Iām hoping this will be the last day for NZDCAD trade
Yen is flying, so Iām hedging my trade with AUDJPY off the scale
in S/R ratings!
Also further hedging both pairs that Iām trading.
Best guess, NZDCAD might consilidate again but AUDJPY might
hit TP by tomorrow for a nice profit
Of interest is the candle pattern on AUDJPY, Inside Doji bounces
off MA and forms a reversal pattern, confirmed by S/W ratings and
82% Trend strength
I think I can trade both these systems concurrently
Jeromeās Last Stand
Both the pairs above ended up in a tight Triangle consolidation.
My three month Nemesis trade NZDCAD broke out to the upside
against me
I closed all positions for a 500.00 loss
Although 500.00 down on October balance is ok, AUDJPY has
broken out to upside also.
I am not trading the Triangle but will trade Breakout of the entire
Asian Session tight Consolidation.
Either side, TPs are very attainable. I may recoup some of the
last three month DD
On the H1, the way Yen has been behaving, it will not stay in
Consolidation.
Expecting some action from London Open
Very true.
I use Finviz for my CSW analysis.
Finviz calculates % change of all the majors against the USD and provides the daily live rating. And it really doesnāt matter what currency is used as base currency, the rating will stay the same even if the % change will differ ( I used Trading view and made use of other currencies as base to verify this theory) and have so far built a strategy around it.
I am still a firm follower of Dennisās thread.
And I also donāt use indicators at all.
Itās weird, I didnt get a notifaiction for your reply hence my late reply.
I like finviz and tv which shows strength against all currencies
quite honestly, you donāt need anything else
finviz needs autorefresh extension so i have two browsers to display tv
as well
its been too quiet, hope london/ny crossover might move something
Are all heat maps delayed by 15 minutes?
Best Trade Today
We have reached Weekly Support on GBPJPY
That mini crash ploughed right under it and Today could
have treated it as Resistance
Not at all
It bounced back into the ring with a vengeance
Price may now return to test that key support level
but we should be moving up through WOS now
This is a very convincing trade, well below bands
and moving up from weekly support
I couldnāt help noticing how immaculate STR
indicator is, but only when the set up is so
impressive, that you donāt need it
When youāre uncertain about a set up, STR repaints
and makes a bad situation even worse
