Two Points worth noting…
( otherwise why am I keeping a journal?)
and btw some 21K views? assuming each viewer
wasted just a couple of minutes on a post, just how much
time has been spent reading this thread?
42k minutes is 700 hours! Unfortunately 21k views from
someone as consistent as me is very impressive, might
even give the implication I have some clue what I am
I don’t really have any clue what I’m doing at all. Some
points may be valid, other points are more theoretical,
and a work in progress. If it gets anyone thinking in a
different way that’s great. If you completely disagree
you’re probably wise
That said, two things I’ve just noted that should be painfully
My AUDNZD is now doing very well. it started off as a big spike
on H4 way above Bands, and as we all know price ‘always
returns to Bands’
Who actually says that price always returns to Bands/ apart from me?
In hindsight it always looks like that, but that can be very misleading
as Bands can shift to meet price
Case in point … AUDNZD never did return to Bands!
It just kept moving up, so I closed for a very small loss and reversed
on D1 for, so far 10x the amount I lost.
am I pleased about that trading decision? extremely.
Even though it completely contradicts my last post. yes, its possible
that AUDNZD may eventually drop but I could see it was
currently moving up. I was completely wrong in taking my
short trade, but completely right in quickly taking remedial action
This leads into the second point
and this is so obvious its embarrassing, in fact its something
I’ve always known but have largely chosen to ignore
There are effectively only three indicators
Now anyone who has read this thread might be thinking,
‘Don’t you mean 3,000 essential indicators?’
Ok, I have flitted around the indicator circuit somewhat.
I actually enjoy doing that, but it hasn’t been profitable
Because lining up 10 indicators that all agree isn’t
The three basic indicators can be summed up in the
Momentum, Trend and Volatility.
Divergence is a derivative that is identified using one
of the above indicators such as MACD.
So in other words, lining up MACD, RSI, Stochastic,
CCI et al, and noting the decisive cross on each
should hardly come as a big surprise as three of
those indicators were totally superfluous.
At the moment I am trialing Bollinger Bands, RSI,
ADX and OBV and have retained the Bands.
There is still likely some repetition
Bollingers are solid for both Trend and Volatility
RSI for Momentum
ADX also for trend
OBV is Volume based, and whilst similar to RSI
it might be useful where RSI isn’t actually crossing
but I wouldn’t be too dogmatic about that
The Bands I suppose also indicate trend and may
well be completely superfluous, if they are helpful
I would say when price is reversing from outer BB
and is far away from Bands, that might reinforce
the idea that price is returning to Bands
Again, I wouldn’t get too fixated on that.
What I have retained from my last post, is try to
keep it small, and not use Stops.
Instead I use price level alerts and close manually if
everything seems to be telling me things are not
going my way.
I still like my % Trend Strength indicator, even if
duplicated by the above
When you see the strength rise above 90% it
is a very sure sign a reversal is due, especially
when the above indicators agree.