Jerome's Journal

There is something of a dichotomy here which is a great word

You surely need total focus to succeed at anything, you need to
keep at it, consistently.

with Forex trading I need to completely detach from outcome,
and just let the market carry on without me.

I’m trying to find some middle ground, and the truth is that
simply might not be possible

Another aspect, is I believe I am addicted to Forex, I have been
involved for many, many years, mainly on demo.

I just love ‘obtaining’ systems and indicators, cannibalizing systems,
mixing and matching indicators etc

that is probably obvious to anyone who may have followed this
thread historically

but I am still not opening my Live platform, i have no idea if I’m
winning or losing, or what currencies I am trading, and if I did
look, I probably would have no idea why I opened those
trades, even though I remember having total clarity at the time

so it is essential to take screenshots and thoroughly explain
why I did what I did, and even if here, it comes over as playing
the great Forex mentor, it really is only for my reference, I
literally don’t remember what strategy I was using at the time
the trade was opened

that’s the downside to ‘set and forget’, forgetting things I
need to remember and take careful note of

i will re install my Live MT4 platform Tuesday morning and try
to make sense of what I see - hopefully, not too much carnage

in the meantime, I’ve had a great weekend on demo, playing
around with different approaches, ‘something old, something new,
something borrowed, something blue’

that doesn’t even make sense

I have a new template I can’t wait to use this week. It is still
based on deviation from the Bands, but also based around
the Envelopes.

There are various ways you can use it and I have three
powerful confluences in two windows

ADX, RSI, and Market Sentiment which is extremely reliable.

These three don’t all need to be present

If just one gives a decisive cross that’s enough, if the chart
and candlestick patterns are compelling enough

It isn’t a mechanical system at all, even though it is taken from
various mechanical systems

basically the combination of the Bands with the Envelopes
is phenomenal! but, I would guess most will not succeed
with this approach, due to the subjectivity involved, not because
they are a lesser trader, or anything like that

I’ve been obsessed with the way that price interacts with the
Bands for several months now so have a feel for them

as has been noted, they can shift a bit, so the envelopes help
to solidify the strategy as they are rock solid

Actually the Bands are good as gold on higher time frames
providing the trade doesn’t drag on.

so getting in and out as quick as possible is key

I think I will win most trades, on demo at least, then when moving
over to Live, set and forget, and just walk away

The screenshot illustrates the main strategy, although there are
many variations

Price has moved away from the Bands, it should return and usually
does.

Price has also moved outside the Envelopes and has now re entered
the upper zone of the Envelopes.

Note also the preceding Pin Bar and Engulfing bar - price really
telling us something here

so we enter if candle closes in the upper zone and is confluent
preferably with cross of ADX green over red. we don’t have that, but
we have a decisive cross of RSI over 70

Exit is simple set and forget - we see the prior level at base of yellow
box just above the Distal Band.

price did move down a bit further but never forget Prime Directive

move only through WOS, just want plain sailing, which also makes
for a faster trade and we can get out before the Landscape starts changing.

Have opened eight positions on H4, most losing at the moment,
but will comment on each

First, the last of the dinasaurs, my lastSilver Daily trade, opened
three weeks ago. it was the Bands system, it was out of Bands
but didn’t return. Since then we have Divergence and it may
now return - but it might take a few months!
Screenshot 1 below

Next we have Aud CAd H4 Sell Trade

This is my Ichimoku Cloud Trend Strategy with convincing
cross of ADX and MS indicators. Also my Trend Strength
shows 83.5% Bearish ( I love that indicator )
See Screenshot 2 below

Next, CadJpy H4 Breakout of Envelopes to a very predictable Exit,
supported by all three crosses plus Solar Winds Histogram , though
REd Bearish undewr Zero, is now turning up.
See screenshot 3 below

Next, EurNzd H4,

Out of Envelopes and back in, supported by ADX and MS cross, also
85.1% Trend Strength. Impulsive move up, retraced 38.2
See Screenshot 4 below

Next, NzdJpy H4, Cross of ADX and MS following a Double Bottom.
Breakout of Envelope, PO Buy above key level of Resistance if hit.
but 85.6% Down! I will watch this!

Just cancelled order due to prior level, no WOS
See Screenshot 5 below

Next, GBPAUD. H4,
Price went out of Envelopes and entered lower zone
Supported by MS but ADX conflicting badly.

After an impulsive move, and retracement, Trend Strength
is 91.2%

Its in a very tight range at the moment, but should break out and h it
prior high

I hope
See Screenshot 6 below

Next GBPCHF H4 Buy is not looking good!
It went out lower Envelope and re entered the lower Zone
followed by a Bearish PinBar, the recent Bearish Pin Bar
had a massive Wick! a lot of rejection by the Bears

Ominously, Trend Strength is 85% DOWN!!

BEARISH WICKS + 85.3% TREND STRENGTH DOWN!!
THAT’S PROBABLY A STRATEGY IN ITSELF
See Screenshot 7 below

Finally, USDCHF H4. This is best of all! Brerakout to the Upside
supported by all three crosses. Trend Strength 84.2%
See Screenshot 8 below

Ironically, the only trade that is winning is the one and only
Trend Cloud Strategy.

I am particulary monitoring the Trend Strength Indicator.

I am not too serious about any of these trades, especially
not on a Monday. but just monitoring - also, I am very new to H4,
this is a big drop down for me.

12 TRADES NOW OPENED AND 2,000.00 DD

all losing badly

The problem is Monday plus conflicting indicators

I’m monitoring H4 trades where the following are confluent

Trend strength
Solar Winds
MACD cross
Market sentiment cross

usdjpy
eurcad
eurusd
gbpusd
audcad
gbpchf
usdchf
plus, as above but where Solar Winds starting to curve inward:
gbpcad
silver

Where to start?

Firstly, I re installed my Live account untouched for two weeks

Almost as if nothing has happened, no major wins or losses

and I have no record in my journal of what trades I opened
so it was all a waste of time.

Interestingly, there was one trade, it was doing very well, up 89 pips
then reversed for 162.00 loss

If I had been checking my charts that would have been prevented

Nothing is that straightforward.

regarding yesterday, Monday of demo, everything typically perverse
and losing.

Today market has come to life and nearly everything winning

some heroes and villains;-

most of the indicators I used seem to be largely irrelevant

All winning positions have high Trend Strength and Confluent
Solar Wind Histogram with RSI decisive cross at best, or at least
right side of 50 at worst.

The losing positions were conspiculously the Polar opposite
of the above criteria

It doesn’t seem to be rocket science

Two notable mentions:-

When Solar Winds Histogram starts to angle it is highly
significant of Trend Change

Also, it may well be that Envelopes passing through
Bands is a highly significant pattern, as this is happening
on my most profitable open positions

So I will keep an eye on both these situations

The all time true Villain of the piece?

Ignoring WOS!!!

YOU PAY THE PRICE

Take a look at this dumbass trade

It has strong bearish trend strength supported by bearish Solar Wind
which is great

but position opened between two key levels ( dark green lines )
that are only 38 pips apart!

so price is now bouncing up off the resistance now turned support, and as
I write is about to bounce off support turned resistance!

it can go on like this all day, and probably will.

the chances of winning this trade are not good and even a win is a failure,
certainly it would be nothing to be proud of

so WOS is everything! no wide open space, no trade!

I am still making the transition to H4, and opened a couple of small
trades on Live account, although entered a bit late

Overall the dust is starting to settle

My demo account has doubled since October 1st, Live account is -8% DD
since that date.

Actually that’s by no means terrible, just noticably at variance with
my demo account

Simply put, you just don’t sabotage your demo account

You may lose due to bad trading, but not so much due to
weird psychological issues.

I really need to be nonchalant, whether by physical absence or
just keeping position sizes ultra small with no stops, which is
historically where I had the greatest success

so small it doesn’t matter at all.

that’s both a great rhyme and a great Truism as discussed at great length
previously

I have high hopes for this trade

Solar Winds just crossed plus supported by Currency Strength
Also nice cross of RSI and Envelopes crossing through Bands

Perhaps there should be a “sticky” on the monitor about looking for WOS first and track the price action as it approaches.

In a situation like this I have had some success setting pending orders near the top and bottom of the range and setting smaller TPs taking me out of the equation.

I have found this to be key to managing risk and DD. This in combination with actually knowing what my trade size is based on account balance is to take advantage of the “Clint Compound Example” in this thread is what I am working on now.

Great Journal! Everything I say should be taken with a grain of salt or two because it is all based upon my experience in demo I haven’t gone live yet and I know that there is a big difference.

Good luck,

KC

regarding the trade i had high hopes for, it’s doing brilliant!
note Solar Winds Histogram, how deadly accurate it is


My Trend strength indicator is very unique - it repaints

  • for no good reason
    the arrow appears in good time, then jumps to next bar!
    it would flatter itself far more if it stayed on the original
    signal bar - if price was moving down you might expect
    it to repaint, but this is the first time Ive seen an excellent indicator
    make itself look less profitable than it really is.

It works brilliantly with the solar Winds Histogram which backtesting
looks too good to be true, that it must obviously repaint

As you see above - it doesn’t

After eighteen months of tedious journal keeping,
the following must be the absolute pinnacle

It surely doesn’t get any better than this. If I
could only be patient enough, how could I ever lose?

Price has moved far away from Bands and Envelopes

It always comes back to Envelopes, and usually returns
to Bands

How do we know that price wouldn’t drop anymore?

Easy answer, The Engulfing candle along with the
angle up and cross of Solar Winds Histogram

You don’t need anything else

TP is either Distal Band or return to Envelopes,
whichever comes first

Previously, a similar ( but more risky) such trade on D1
could take four months to hit TP

On H4 it would have taken five days

Perfect

if it repaints then back testing will always give much better results than live because it adjusts itself using future information.

In my view there is no holy grail. The key to success is to manage your losses. Most of us who have been trading for some years will have our own favourite systems which will probably have a success rate of above 60%. The issue is the losers which deplete our winnings. Manage these and you will make money.

Actually, there is such a thing as the Holy Grail, but not
a permanent one. Greg Jones proved that with the
Strategy 10/20 on this site

He was winning every day for several months - what’s that
if not a Holy Grail?

But years after that, I see Greg still asking for advice regarding
other guy’s systems. I’m curious why he would do that if he
had a permanent Holy Grail.

No disrespect to Greg, unknown to him, he was a great
inspiration at the time

Regarding my repainting indicator - it is brilliant. It doesn’t
repaint in the usual negative sense, it just keeps current
and the arrow moves with the price to tell trend is still
moving well

My point was, it would look better retrospectively,if arrow didn’t
move after signalling a new trend, as it could be seen to have
made you 200 pips for example, but by staying current as trend
progresses, it would seem less profitable than it really was

I guess as soon as you use a word like ‘repaint’, it just provokes
negative comments, which isn’t surprising - it’s a conditioned reflex.

Incidentally, I remember one world famous teacher, possibly Mark Douglas
recommending you always keep seeking the Holy Grail

  • even though it doesn’t exist

Because in the process you discover some amazing strategies

see next post for example

Not sure what the moderators will make of this

I received an advert from marketeer Cynthia Macy

She has a lot of videos explaining her systems, based on
volatility. If not the Holy Grail. it is definitely a very profitable
system, similar to what I’ve been doing lately. her videos
contain a lot of good trading insight

and it’s all colour coded to make entries and exits really
simple

but here’s what always grates, is when they start talking about
their ‘custom indicators’, costing just $297 plus extra for the
advanced strategy template

I have them both for you. Took me under 10 minutes to replicate
with standard MT4 indies plus one or two others that are freely available
everywhere

Mainly it’s ADX
Donchian Channels
MACD
SupertrendProfit
Trend Strength % indicator ( highly recommended )
AutoFib Zones
Heinken Ash candles

I need to watch the videos again, as I’m not sure how she
incorporates the Donchian channels

This is Cynthia…

and this is my version, feel free to send me your $297 :slight_smile: I’ve combined
both systems on one template

But last week has been my most balanced week in Forex
for quite a long time. some great winners on both Live and Demo
and no attempts to self sabotage

I will rebuild the account, gradually without stress.

I’m finding H4 ok, not too disimilar to D1 but not dragging on
indefinitely

But there’s a lot of charts to check!

I’m thinking, arrange my currencies in order of preference

JPY AUD NSD CAD there is no question these are where I
do best with

EU, GU, and anything with CHF in it have only negative
memories for me

and if there is going to be stop hunting, it seems more prevalent
on the Majors.

so if I find a couple of decent set ups on my preferred currencies
I will stop there, if I find nothing, I may give the others a look

The Totally Awesome Forex system!

I’m not American, nor do I watch American teen movies,
but I thought I would irritate myself by giving this system
a name I will remember.

I’ve had so many million dollar insights, that I usually forget
within 24 hrs

This time, I really want to get this down with as much detail
as possible

because, if I don’t do it now, while it’s still fresh, it will just get
forgotten

Of course, nothing is original. This system borrows from my own
work over last year with the Bands. They are still one of my main
criteria in making trade decisions. but I have been helped by
the Nexus system by Russ Horn, Las L. is great, especially his
Envelope strategy and explaining about the ADX cross, and Cynthia
Macy expands on the ADX theme.

This is starting to sound like an Oscar speech

So I will upload the screenshot first and give rules and comments after,
but first, I want to remind myself of something that just came into my
head - a system that utilizes the autofib trading zones with the Bands.
it completely conflicts with totally Awesome, so I want to check that
out later

meantime, here is the TAFS

You will note the vertical lines on both templates
we will call upper Bands and lower Nexus

On Nexus, CCI is bearish so we are only looking to go short

On the first example, Price had been moving down consistently,
and trend Strength indicator might be useful here, then price retraces
up to the 61.8 Fib level. is is time to resume the downtrend?

On Bands template, price moves out above both Bands and Envelopes
and then re enters both with a Bearish Momentum bar. This happens at the
cross of ADX. Not quite crossed? very good point. Cynthia Macy uses the
expression regarding ADX ’ cross or kiss’. Las L. only referred to a
clean cross of green over red. ( Big E I believe noted a similar situation
on the TDI )

but a ‘kiss’ can be a touch where one line bounces off another that can
be as insightful as a straight cross

so imagine two scenarios on ADX.

green is moving down and decisively crosses over red, green keeps
moving down and red keeps moving up denoting rise in volatility

or Green is moving up, kisses Red, recoils back down and Red recoils
back up,

In both cases a sharp divergence has occured and would seem, to all
intents and purposes, to be identical in outcome

Would you believe this! I just checked TDI, not part of the TAFS, nevertheless
on each of the vertical lines TDI green crosses perfectly over red, above 50
level crossing down!!

So now we have the Totally, Sick, Wicked, Awesome Forex System

yup, that’s irritating enough to remember

Before we leave the Bands template, the big question is, how many pips
to Distal Envelope or Band? is the risk worth the reward?

We have 24 pips to bottom Envelope, no deal, but 74 pips to Distal Band
which is hit six times before price moved up

So now, looking down to Nexus Template, we are following the Red Line of
the CCI histogram. We need to see that red line Cross through, either down through +100 level, or up through the - 100 level.

The other two examples are very similar to the first

but here is an all important distinction

On second example, distance is 50 pips to Distal Envelope, but 116 pips
to Distal Band, you could have TP1 AND TP2, it would suggest that

but the third example is even more interesting:- distance to Distal Band
is a mere 24 pips, no deal, but a worthwhile 48 pips to Distal Envelope
which is always hit, as often as Bands, but it doesn’t shift about

In actual fact, there is unlikely to be a problem with Bands in this system.
Yes, there can be a problem with Bands, but that only really happens on either
Lower time frames, or when Trade drags on for weeks on Higher time frames

So here is probably the real highlight of this system, one that takes away 90%
of the stress of trading, it is really 100% mechanical.

especially knowing when to Exit. If there is sufficient pippage available,
target Distal Band or Distal Envelope, and if both are worthwhile, consider
setting TP1 and TP2.

Making it completely Set and Forget, which is what I need.

for a Mental Stop, you might consider getting out if price closes
back into the Envelopes, or use that as a warning sign, and get out
if ADX Green crosses back over Red.

Of course that would need monitoring so would not be set and forget,
in which case use very small Lot size and wait for TP to be hit, or
place hard stop above thr recent swing High/Low

I don’t like hard stops, but I do need to set and forget.

So now finally, all paid clients of TAFS, can get the upgrade to
the Totally Sick, Wicked, Awesome Forex System for a massive
50% discount! or in other words, pay twice for something thats
already freely available, and takes 10 minutes to put together.

Here is how it looks:

The system I mentioned above in passing, just came to me
out of the Ether, the AutoFib to Bands system

Seems to work every time on Higher Time frames

When price is at the upper Red Zone or Lower Blue zone,
it should be due for a reversal.

Is there a reasonable distance to Distal band?

For Sell Trades

If CCI line crosses down over +100 line and aligns with a red candle
enter trade targeting Distal Band and next Pivot beyond.

In the example given, which is current, price retraced 38.2

and should now hit both those profit targets

You can check on Monday/Tuesday

The Revised Bands System

I’ve been trading the Bands now for five solid months,
Anyone who knows my Forex temperament would
know that’s an eternity for me to stick to one indicator.

but I think I’ve really optimized it now

The screenshot should be self explanatory

Cross or Kiss of green to red ADX ( there is one kiss
near the end that would have won, but we were already in )

Confluent with Solar Winds Histogram. Never oppose unless
Histogram has started to angle up.

Bullish ADX cross must be confluent with a Bullish candle, typically
bullish colour, but a stalky candle excepted any colour.

In the sample below there were 9 qualifying trades and they all won for
+819 pips.

Two set ups marked with red arrow didn’t qualify because there was no
space to Bands , they arrived before even starting so to speak

This is very similar to Totally Awesome and equally profitable.

The final trade hasn’t hit Bands yet, Does anyone seriously doubt it will?
Watch Monday or Tuesday.

and I believe trading the AutoFib Zones to Bands is free money
because price will usually reverse from red or blue zone, and price
invariably returns to Bands

So if you have both, on higher TFs you should usually win

Here is the AutoFib to Bands system again

AutoFib to Bands

These two systems are more than enough, but there is just one more
that’s a bit different, an Ichimoku Trend Strategy

It is extremely profitable!

Cross of ADX where price is confluently Bullish/Bearish, and has just broke
out of Ichimoku cloud. Target Pivot.

Ideally, a healthy Trend Strength percentage reading. We don’t have one
here. but we do have 90% reading on D1

We see a dragon Harmonic signal for added confluence

I also have a Purple line that denotes the 20 MA on 5 x higher TF
Price must always be moving away from Purple to be moving in
same Trend Direction as D1.

We see price has retraced to Purple Line and TZ1, this often happens
(marked in small yellow box )

TP can be Pivot, especially if close to opposite TZ1, extremely accurate.
Obviously set up must be confluent with Solar Winds

I don’t necessarily want to trade every set up on all four systems,
maybe just pick the best of the best, regardless of system

and a tie breaker would be the set up offering the highest RR

Here is the Ichimoku Trend System

These are the Pairs I will mainly be trading on H4 TF

After 18 months of endless theorizing, I now need total clarity

I am trading the Revised Bands System for simplicity and
extreme profitability

I will especially look out for set ups on the AutoFib Zones to Bands System
but only on the preferred currency pairs.

If I see a really compelling set up on the Ichimoku Trend System
I will trade it

I will keep Position Sizes small and build up my account gradually