Excellent discussion between you and @dpaterso. Following along. Thanks!
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Almost unblemished statement
Since beginning of June hardly any losers of significance except two
the EURJPY -35 loss was a loser pure and simple, no
obvious way of avoiding it. no excuses but no apologies either
but on EURNZD I lost -47 as you see, and a further -10 on
2/6/19 which is off the statement. the -10 doesnāt bother me
but I include it here to make an important point
As you see on sc I closed for -10 prematurely as it would
have gone on to win
Similarly, the -47 was stopped out when without a stop it
would also have gone on to win
Frankly, scout trades do not need a Stop, just give them
some space and time before reacting. On these two
occasions I failed to do that
Theoretically in over a month I should only have had
the one -35 trade significant loser.
One significant loser a month would not be so terrible
I was ABOUT to say thatās darn good and well done.
But then I started looking at those profits and losses. Whatās the overall net profit on all of those trades is the question (Iām not going to sit here and add it up with a calculator!!! LOL!!!).
net profit since 2/6/2019 is 2.31 trading mainly 0.01, which
if you take psychology out of the way is the same as $231k
Taking psychology out of the way is the hard part )
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Alright well then itās well done then. Especially if you consider your win / loss ratio and largest losers and the frequency of those.
So multiply that 2.31 by say 10 000 and, well, that aināt bad for a monthās work.
Nice thing is that itās steady as she goes. Ever noticed how quickly those +5 000% ROI per month threads simply go dead??? LOL!!!
Foretold my own Doom!
I recently mentioned there was an excellent strategy 2
on Gold but my concern was that all three BBs were pointing
up!
but of course I went ahead anyway
If you can actually see the danger ahead, it would make
sense to walk away, as we see below
That said, there is a nice pin bar now so it might come
down. but might isnāt good enough.
I want to make a note to avoid strategy #2 in a strongly
trending market
Hmmmnnnā¦ Never been a big fan of BBs. They work until they donāt type of thing. And from a pure BB trading point of view: nothing wrong with what you were thinking i.e. the bar closed inside from being outside. So donāt beat yourself up about it i.e. thatās a common move described in just about every flavor of BB trading system.
AND your other stuff was aligned. So like I said: donāt beat yourself up about it. In all probability: just one of those (few in your case) losing trades that just go with the territory. Only additional input: take the loss i.e. I know way too many people that will hold onto that trade hoping (and will even add to it). They never seem to realize that sometimes it will just keep trending. May not happen often. But when it does well thatās the end of THAT thread then too!!! LOL!!!
yes I have noticed they go dead in 100% of cases.) and that modest
but consistent returns attract investment, no one is going to invest
in any of these high flyers. They are gamblers. You can triple,
or quadruple your account in a month and many traders have.
but it always ends in tears
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Yes, it was a fully qualifying setup which is why I took it, but reading
the chart those three bands did look menacing, I mean hardly bearish
and we even had the ADX exhaustion from that up move, which would only
reinforce the short Strategy #2 signal
Meh. I see / hear what youāre saying. But way too many things were aligned. If I was trading Gold Iād for sure be looking at RSI (14) and even that would have tempted a short. Nothing wrong. Just a loss. Plain and simple.
And I KNOW I donāt have to preach to you. But for the sake of it: hard as we try weāre never going to get 100% winning trades. Matter of fact that is in and of itself a problem i.e. the higher your percentage the harder you try to not blemish it. And this will result in some holding on no matter what. Itās a lot harder for somebody thatās had 100% wining trades for a month to take a loss than it would be for somebody who is losing a few trades.
Actually it hasnāt lost yet 
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LOL!!!
Well thatās true. In just looking at my same Gold chart I make the assumption that your stop is just above the previous high. Thatās been missed thus far (but only by a fraction).
For what itās worth (and Iām just assuming that I know where your stop is):
Thatās a common place for a stop as Iām sure you know. Better would be to trade with NO stop but be ready and able to close manually once you a CLOSE above that high.
Anyway. Keep it up. Nice work here.
I have no stop, but your comment underscores the need to avoid stops
under normal circumstances
That was the departed RRM2ās battle cry, its stops that cause trades to
lose more than anything else
the grey line you see is the current price
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Yip. Been a long time since I traded with stops. Not only do they affect the amount of and number of losses but it affects your psyche. For me anyway. I can manually close out a loser no problem. But I cannot stomach sitting watching a stop being taken out automatically!!! LOL!!!
I never got a reply from TWB regarding repainting
indicators. He seemed to be defending them although Iām
sure he wasnāt.
but my Harmonic Arrow is well regarded, and is no worse
than Harmonic patterns generally
It does repaint, but I may possibly have noticed something
It may usually be right despite repainting
Now I donāt want to go back down the repainting indicator
rabbit hole again. I simply canāt afford it
but if this arrow is well supported by Stochastic or RSI, it may
move against you quite a bit before price actually does what
the arrow was originally suggesting.
The fact that it may teleport itself favourably to make itself
look better may not be the point. If it usually hits your
target that is the main thing
a good argument for ECN commissions isnāt about whether its cheaper
than a wider spread, but how often does the spread just about manage to stop you out!
With tight spreads, even if you pay more in comm, many trades could be saved
but with no stop at all, infinitely more trades could move from DD to winner
if a stop takes you because you completely got it wrong, you deserve it,
but when you ultimately called it right but got stopped by one pip
before things turned in your favour
thats the really sickening part
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Well.
For what itās worth take a look at my risk based position sizing that Iāve been banging on about everywhere. Might fit in with what youāre doing and with this discussion generally. It means I can trade without stops at leisure and in total comfort (not having to worry).
Hereās a link to it where I think I summed it up nice for another thread:
Iāve adjusted it back down to 3 x ATR but using ATR(14) of late. But itās pretty robust and just depends on your risk profile.
This is very, very interesting!! āScout - OUT!ā Profits to follow!
This is an interesting point. I never thought about it that way - BTW I know that Iām not adding anything to the conversation here ā¦ sorry about that, But these are excellent observations and results drawn from the real deal.
KC
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Looking at the EURCAD 4 Hour Chart, you have the red SELL signal on an upward lineā¦ this can be caused by two issues 1, Because the setting is too tight and needs a slightly longer period to unscramble the data displayed or 2. you may be using a Time Series or VIDYA Moving Average in the Calculationā¦
Hi @Jerome32, Sorry, didnāt answer your questionā¦ Iām no defender of repainting Indicatorsā¦ I have too many bozos that post on my befuddled thread carrying on about repainting indicators.
The definition of a repainting indicator is one the rewrites the history of where a price was 3, 4, 5, 10 periods prior or an arrow that moves after price action has moved awayā¦ they rewrite price history, not flicker prior to close.
Posters read 3 posts of a 120+ post thread that explains in great detail how to apply the MA Coloured Slope Indicator to the strategy and are left wondering why they cannot trade their way out of wet paper bagā¦
So, like a many great Indicators that require a forensic investigation to derive a signal, we can overlay this visually superior Signal to reveal a pairs direction at a glanceā¦ Saving a lot of second guessing when scanning through baskets of a possible 28 pairs.
The MA Slopeās weakens is on low TFās where it can flicker back and forth between Buy and Sell before the TF period is closed and this is what the clueless are referring to as a repainting Indicatorā¦
Itās the same indecisiveness that a candle can generate changing from green to red, back to green before it closes and the next one repaintsā¦ or a volatile price that causes two moving averages to cross and uncross multiple times before they extend to the next time period.
The DiNapoli Indicator is a sharp algo and will be a great addition to your trading arsenalā¦ It can get very hard to decipher the signal with the close proximity of each lineā¦ so we use another Indicator that gives a clearer more defined signalā¦ and instead of using the close (HLOC) of the period it derives its data from the DiNapoli insteadā¦
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