Jerome's Journal

[Jerome32]

I made 50 pips on GBPCHF

How should I feel, happy I will probable end the month in
profit?

Disgruntled because I could have held on for 114 pips?

Relieved I got out before it reversed back up for a loss

CSW was telling me there was probably more to come
and the greed glands were trying to keep me in

but I had made a nice profit with a relatively skillful
drop to H1, then M15, then to M5 and finally to M3
trading momentum all the way

I was very disappointed I had gone into DD last few
days and simply decided to quit while I was ahead

I know from experience when you make a good profit
trailing momentum you just hope to follow it all the
way to Rainbow’s end.

A stop above previous bar works very well, in this
case 37 pips, I persevered beyond that but at 50 pips
decided not to push my luck

I feel I did the right thing

[Jerome32]

It looks like GBP might have ended its freefall

There is now a perfect cross of DiNapoli up, crossing 20,
and Sentiment indicator everyone is Long

All the other such crosses failed, not surprisingly

I would not be so eager to trade against the trend.

On the other hand I would be eager to rejoin the
trend

As we see, in a very strong trending situation
the cross of Stochastic doesn’t have to relate
to the usual OB/OS criteria

[dpaterso]

How much do you want to bet me that at some point there is going to be a spike down equivalent in range and ferocity to that which happened in 2016 (on all GBP pairs)??? Exactly when: I don’t know. But it’s coming.

I’ve been watching a lot of Boris related stuff just in the last twenty four hours. And I can tell you that if nothing else (fundamentals, technicals, and politics aside): people are TALKING the GBP down and it’s going to become a self fulfilling prophecy.

If this were my thing (and given what I’m saying above it may just become my thing but for a big short term one-off trade): I’d be placing limit buy orders JUST above the low of the 2016 spike down.

If I’m right: it’s going to be a violent spike down and with an equally violent spike back up (because believe me: as special as I think I am I’m not and I’m not the only person that’s thinking what I’m thinking).

As for going against the prevailing trend (on GBP pairs currently): I personally think that would give new meaning to the phrase “catching a falling knife”. UNLESS you’re sharp enough to catch a bounce here and there and get the ■■■■ out when you’ve made a bit of a profit on each trade.

[Jerome32]

Anything could happen, but yes its all about Sterling at the
moment

[Jerome32]

[Jerome32]

Nice Win

[dpaterso]

I just too a look at GBPCHF for the fun of it. The low of that 2016 spike is not looking that far off I’ll tell you.

[Jerome32]

I just too a look at GBPCHF for the fun of it. The low of that 2016 spike is not looking that far off I’ll tell you.

Should be a breakout of Consolidation today

[Jerome32]

Nice Setup
Short signal on CSW, very clean cross of DiNapoli, ( some
crosses are indecisive)

Clear exhaustion on ADX

Price had reached significant level of Resistance

[frandlost]

How much do you want to bet me that at some point there is going to be a spike down equivalent in range and ferocity to that which happened in 2016 (on all GBP pairs)??? Exactly when: I don’t know. But it’s coming.

I think this is in the wings for all U.S. markets.

[Jerome32]

Just an observation

Two outstandingly good Strategy #2 setups backed
up by ridicilous CSW disparity!

but note the Sentiment index at the top, must be
close to 100% in both cases

It seems no one is taking a contrarian point of view

Is that relevant? Most lose money overall. but not necessarily
for picking the wrong direction

Can everyone be wrong? its possible but is MS sometimes
a reliable guide?

Just a thought

[Jerome32]

Profit

May =1.71

June = 2.27

July = 2.46

The above doesn’t tell the whole story due to wildly
fluctuating Position sizing, but at least three consecutive
winning months, and significantly, a lot of trading! so
quietly confident

Last night I was trading M5 on MT4, kept freezing, could
hardly get order on and worse, couldn’t close order

XM broker are reasonably honest, don’t stop hunt, and
platform works ok during non volatile periods

but on M5, if you need to go out, and really have to
place a stop loss, they insist it be 36 pips away
on some popular pairs

spreads are ok on majors, not great on other pairs

I have been trialing ctrader with Pepperstone

what a contrast! none of the above nonsense

I would prefer a Polish ZL account but you are
very limited if you want to use ctrader.

I only know of FXPro, they seem ok but
pepperstone’s spreads are really so tight
and US$ account probably safer, not that
anything is safe these days

[Jerome32]

CSW

I’m having something of a paradigm shift regarding
currency strength

I’ve noticed it can quite quickly fluctuate even on a Daily
timeframe

I’ve come to view the Daily timeframe as I previously
viewd M5 timeframe

Both are capricious compared to HTF

Think how erratic the M5 is to the more stable D1

That is quite close to how erratic the D1 is to the Yearly
timeframe

1/288 and 1/365 respectively

With this realization I checked the CSW Disparity on all
pairs over W M Q HY and Y

The JPY had a consistent high disparity on each of these
time frames with NZD, AUD and GBP

The boxes below are the aggregate over the last year

I will be looking to short the NZDJPY, the AUDJPY and
the GBPJPY whenever Price Action dictates

Favoured Indicators will be :-
Donchian Channel,
Trade Predator Trend Strength indicator
RSI (over/under zero)
ADX
Custom ATR (cross of threshold line)

Unfortunately, without MQ4 code I will
still need MT4 to monitor the charts as
I can’t use two of these indicators
on cTrader

This all came about with a trade I took
on GBPAUD

CSW and PA indicated I go short

It immediately headed north

It has been held back by an upper trendline
and I should be able to recoup the DD

but CSW investigation revealed AUD has been
in pretty much the same dog house as GBP
the last year, and NZD not far behind

I don’t trade Fundamentals and I’m embarrassed
to admit I had no idea

I just thought it was GBP that was falling like a
lead balloon

Of course I’m not overstating anything here, I
would just feel there is a bias on these three
pairs, not just over the last hour or day, that
can quickly change, but over the last year

[Jerome32]

Just hit 30.000 views

Unbelievable!

That probably equates to 1,500 hours of reading time,
I can only hope there have been a few worthwhile snippets,
but there has certainly been a lot of tedious garbage

To be positive, this journal has made a big difference to
my trading

so many start a journal but give up almost straight away

that does not bode well for their trading career

[Jerome32]

Here is an example on NZDJPY monitoring
both cTrader and MT4

This borrows a lot from Greg Jones’ excellent thread
Strategy 10/20 proven over many months but
usually on M5, this example is on Weekly

The basic rules as I recall is following trend, price
crosses centre Donchian, then crosses back
again

All three Donchian lines must be in agreement,
all moving up or down as indicated by the
three arrows below

RSI must be above/below 50 and pointing up/down

I have added
ATR must show volatility and be at or above line

ADX cross or exhaustion

Trade Predator arrow plus
TPH boxes all changed colour

[Jerome32]

Of course, the Weekly is just to establish a strong bias.

Ideally enter at LTF

and even then you can trade the breakout of Fractals
on H1 supported by ATR volatility as we see below, it
worked out every time!

[Jerome32]

Here is same thing on GBPJPY and AUDJPY

[Jerome32]

Forget everything I’ve ever said about CHF
I’m now only focusing on the four pairs with
currently the highest CSW Disparity

AUDJPY, AUDCHF, NZDJPY, NZDCHF

I can now give full concentration to
these pairs instead of being scattered

Systems are secondary. At the moment I am seeing
a very tight correlation between price and Gator Green
( same principle as Trend following Strategy #1 )

The Donchian system is superb, I always loved it
and thanks to Greg Jones for his commitment.

Greg made a very interesting observation…
because of the reliability of this system it was
about as close as you will get to a Holy Grail
yet Greg was surprised at the relatively lack
of interest. It is indeed a very powerful system
in a strong trend. At the moment the trends are
so strong that they may not retrace back to
centre Donchian.

so what is this mother of all forex revelations?

Its been said you need to get off demo and trade
real money. yes thats true

But Ive found trading cents is NOT the answer

This is all about psychology, and all the while
I am in terror of losing 10 cents I am not helping my
trading career

I always do extremely well on demo, fearlessness is key
I must trade exactly that way on a live account!

You know the analogy about walking a plank on the
ground and 100 metres up in the air between two
buildings. Assuming no wind it is exactly the same

Only the psychology is different!

So I no longer spend long fearful hours sweating
over my platform terminal. I won’t even check
my balance

You must exercise great care and due dilligence but
after that you can have no fear, you just calmly
work through the trades systematically with no
regard for outcome

Just as though you were being paid by the hour with
no reference to results

[Jerome32]

and here is the only trade of interest

AUDCHF

Massive CSW disparity on monthly and weekly

Fractal break on H4 and H1 followed by a third
retrace to Green Gator

and to add to the neatness, switch down to M15 and
see a perfect Donchian strategy setup

When PA is at its best, most decent strategies tend to line
up

I may seem ultra fickle but actually nothing has really changed

Instead of trying to follow 28 pairs, I’m really focusing on the
ones that have consistent CSW disparity. its a good filter, even
though its not a setup in itself

The Donchian strategy is just another version of my
Strategy #1, I still refer to both

The Fractal breakout I have been using since 2013, the boxes
cost £3

In a string trend, when you have a break of HTF Fractal, you can trade
the break of LTF and/or trade the bounce of Gator Green

and in ALL trend following strategies I always use Trade Predator
trend strength indicator. It has a claimed 85% success rate which
I can confirm on higher time frames

I still use Strategy #2 except use outer Donchian instead of Bollingers,
Still use Stochastic 5 2 2 and DiNapoli 8 3 3 but never at same time

and ADX is probably one of the most powerful indicators out there
when confluent with PA, and I check RSI which needs to stay
above/below 50

I don’t clutter the charts with indicators but I’m really not
doing anything much different, except more emphasis on
trend than reversals

and all indicators are just for added confirmation, I Look
mainly at Price Action

[Jerome32]

Trade #1
Excellent Setup. Price had been respecting Gator Green
and now moving down from a Railway Track engulfing pattern,
would have expected a break of Fractal box. Reward was 47 pips
to Monthly Support, stop was 30 pips, placed just above Fractal box

Given the +90 / -50 CSW disparity, I would not have expected
to have been stopped with that sharp move up during Asian session

Price might have bounced up again off Gator, or even bounced off
upper Fractal box, but it was surprising that it moved up, and is
still moving up beyond that point.

and Ironic, it did actually break fractal Box
triggering my extra Sell Stop order, before
promptly reversing

I still feel it was a good setup.

AUDCHF H1
RR 47/30
Regrets None
L -30 pips