Jerome's Journal

[Jerome32]

Looking at AUDJPY, similar to above, AUD sinking
against the JPY

but on D1 chart a possible Reversal up. and a reversed
CSW of +44/-52

I’m not altogether taken in by this

I would rather wait to rejoin it’s journey south

As we speak an Inside Bar Doji might be forming at Gator,
signalling a return to the Downtrend

The operative word here is ‘might’

We note below how this pair also has been respecting Gator,
but we need definite PA to confirm price continuing the
downward trend

not seeing that yet.

[Jerome32]

Reached Monthly Support, respected four times

May breach and Retest this time

[Jerome32]

A very similar story with NZDJPY

Daily CSW shows very strong NZD against a weak JPY
as it also reaches Monthly Support

but when you look at that massive move down, the mere 23%
retracement, again, isn’t very convincing

It may bounce off 20

but the problem with all these high CSW pairs is that we’re at
Monthly Support so for 100 pips or so either side its no mans land

we need some very definite movement either above or below

[Jerome32]

Interestingly. CSW gives a strong reversal indication
to the upside

and ADX is also clearly indicating Exhaustion of the Downtrend
as it approaches Monthly Support

But PA is saying something very different with and Exhaustion
Green candle, Bearish Doji at Green Gator, looks like
its respecting Gator and will resume the downtrend

With such conflicting signals you’ve got to walk away

I think there is a big element of holiday madness at
play here

Probably best come back in September

[Jerome32]

Still deeply distrustful, I saw a possible retracement on
GBPCHF which may or may not hit

I would feel happier resuming the trend

[Jerome32]

The above target was hit, but I will say more
luck than anything. August adds risk to an already
high risk activity

Today, September, I’m looking for GBP to fall against Yen,
the political tensions ( evidenced by CSW? ) may help.
but I’m looking at the technicals - specifically, convincing
close below centre Donchian

I don’t believe trading has to be any more complicated
than that

[Jerome32]

Excellent Analysis, sloppy trading

I missed the boat. Lesson learnt

[Jerome32]

Lets see how we get on with GBPAUD

[Jerome32]

Stopped out on GBPAUD. Now going long as we have
crossed up over centre Donchian and crossed over 50
on RSI

Also supported by CSW, but perhaps someone can
explain to me how that Sterling can possibly be flying at
a time of almost unprecedented political chaos in UK?
Because ‘No Deal’ is considered to be less likely? The
situation is surely highly tenuous. How can such
uncertainty possibly boost the pound?

If anyone can trade Fundamentals profitably they
must have X Ray vision. I just can’t see it at all.
There seems to be some reverse psychology at play,
not that Contrarian Fundamentals is likely to be
a very profitable tack.

[alphahavoc]

If anyone can trade Fundamentals profitably they

must have X Ray vision. I just can’t see it at all.

Mind bloggling isn’t it

[Jerome32]

Note to self
Never trade in August!

I now have two open positions GJ and EJ

The basic premise is confluence of fractals
but a lot of chart reading factors also are
involved

First I find pairs where price has closed over fractal level
on D1

Then I wait for next close over fractal on H4. I will enter if
there is sufficient WOS and everything else is looking good
ie cross of zero on MACD, or reversion to trend after First
peak of MACD

RSI cross of 50, or above/below 50

Confluence of Trend Strength on both TFs

Price bouncing off Gator Green.

This is not indicator reliant, but they help to
paint a picture

GJ Stop now moved to BE

[Jerome32]

GJ exceeded expectations. Still in with EJ. What joys will next week bring?

[Jerome32]

August was predictably bad, but trading has not been great
since then. Perhaps its just me, its hard to say, but I’ve been
getting more perversity than usual lately.

but something I want to make a note of. I’ve just seen the MACD
in a new light

‘Here we go!’

No, I don’t see it as a magic indicator

but I do see that at times it is

and not only retrospectively

I also see that most of the time ain’t nothing
gonna save you

so all you need to do, is know when the MACD is magical
and when it isn’t.

When MACD peaks then crosses the signal line, it can be
magic when in tandem with price action

so for example, let us say, that price closes outside BB then
forms an Engulfing candle pattern whilst closing inside BB, is itself
a powerful signal, but it we see a corresponding peak of MACD
that crosses the signal line I think that might well be worth paying
attention to.

In the example below we have obvious divergence, then an obvious
Engulfing pattern

Only now do we pay attention to MACD and enter when it crosses
the signal line and close at cross back over SL for 139 pips

how often will this work? I don’t know, and I would hardly feel
I’ve suddenly discovered anything new - everything outlined above
is quite ‘old hat’

I think its more a quirky thing, I’m just seeing something I didn’t
quite see before. Of course, regular readers of this thread
know I have had numerous such ‘Eureka moments’, usually
with outrageously repainting indicators (and no, Stochastic is not
a repainting indicator, we get that) but many others are. and
it always ends in tears.

but MACD is solid, thats why its included in every charting
software. so I am quietly confident ( once again )

Something else I’m monitoring, is the Trend Strength Indicator,
I’ve always liked it despite being one of those late entry type
of system

there are plenty of selections, but usually a bullish signal on
one TF is contradicted on another. so how about confluence
of timeframes where MACD is above/below zero on both
Theoretically it should have an added edge

but we’ll see

[Jerome32]

The observations above regarding MACD are more valid
for entries rather than exit. if you wait for a reverse cross
on MACD you can end up giving everything back.

If you’ve made a good profit it may be worth switching to
a lower TF to look for an exit

[Jerome32]

I don’t know how long I’ve been trading, more years
than I would care to admit - at least ten, and probably
even more than fifteen

I’ve been monitoring everything here regularly for
over two years

but after all that time I have decimated my account
over the last two months with nothing but losers-
extreme perversity.

I remember a guy like me on one of the forums
making his farewell speech, having concluded it’s a
mug’s game. purely random.

So discouraging to read that

I would never write like that, I would just go.

I have been in the process of giving up, nothing
I do on the higher time frames seems to work anymore.

but at least I can often tell the direction of the next bar

but that isn’t profitable, except on Binary Options, which
I know is as scammy as they get.

but just to boost my confidence, I opened a BO platform
where you can get 85%-90% on some currencies.

I found I was winning all the time, a stark contrast
to my Forex trading over the last two months!

If only there was a reputable BO broker offering
such favourable returns

The best I can find is Binarycents. there are bad reviews,
several of them, but they all make the same complaint
…very slow withdrawals ( can be a couple of weeks )
plus very sharp practice 20% fee for withdrawals until
you have traded the amount of your initial deposit.

Actually none of that bothers me, the fact they eventually
pay out is almost saintly by BO standards!

and they use Trading View platform which is great.

So obviously I am tempted to switch to Binary Options
…did I mention they have pretty girls video chat for
support? obviously I wouldn’t let that influence me.

However, in the meantime I have adapted my BO
approach to Forex and that is quite successful too

Using M15 TF with a tight stop. I always move
in the right direction. I don’t have a hard target, obviously
I have an idea where price might go, but once price has moved
I just trail the momentum.

one or two stop out straight away but most do quite well

but no real use of indicators, BB for context, occasional
glimpse of MACD ( See above recent notes ). Mainly candle
patterns that can be very powerful after a breakout scenario.or
Reversal

certainly no indicators are used for signal

As you see on the open trade below, I knew the next bar would
be down, even if only a pip or two

That is about the only thing even close to certain about trading,
even though nothing is actually certain.

there are probably one or two BO brokers that are honest, but
they don’t accept EU UK or US clients

its a great pity, it seems to be the only thing that seems to work
at the moment

[Jerome32]

Here is a perfect example of my dillema

On Binary Options on H1 I just scraped in by 1 or 2 pips
but thats enough for around 85% return on investment

Taking the same trade on Forex, I couldn’t close for 2 pips
profit, so I had to let it run a bit further

and run it did!

in the completely wrong direction!

I really can’t foresee this at all. I can only see where there
is some temporary directional bias, but after the next bar
its more luck than judgement

[frandlost]

Hey @Jerome32, sorry to hear you’ve hit a rough patch.

Sometimes I’ll go back and review why I entered the trade. I found that I was always trying to catch the bottom and top, not waiting for a confirmation or jumping all in instead of sending in a single, .01 scout.

So what I thought might be a bot or top was a rest and now I was still in the trend swimming against the current certain it was one candle from changing direction.

It was a great exercise for me! Very enlightening.

good luck,

KC

[Jerome32]

Sometimes the very next bar doesn’t quite go beyond
the spread of your entry level, but two bars invariably do

There is now almost nothing stopping me making millions
on Binary Options

Except of course their notorious price manipulation, and the
fact that even reputable brokers such as Go Markets will
close your account very promptly as soon as they see you
are likely to be consistently profitable

Most won’t close your account as they have nothing to lose
as they have no intention of ever paying out anyway.

I only know literally one broker who is guaranteed not to either
cheat you or close your account

Spectre

You don’t even need to make a deposit with them as trades
can be made directly from your e wallet

and there is no broker as such, definitely no broker intervention.

so now nothing standing between me and untold millions

just one thing. the payouts are around 73%

If you did have a losing run it would take a long time to
recoup that loss, by which time you might be due another
losing run

To succeed at Binary Options you need something around 85%
payout to be realistic

Of course some of the above brokers will offer you that with no
intention of ever paying out -
’ if it seems too good to be true it probably is!’

but with Spectre they do have three instruments that
pay 80%, 85% and 90% the instruments are called Epic
(1000 3000 and 5000)

5000 is the top payer at 90% and so far almost impossible
to win on.

These instruments are not real, they are not driven by
human emotion

so what is driving their price movements? they are somehow
based on real currency moves but seem to be more of a real
time computer simulation

otherwise why the different payout levels?

Is it a glorified casino fruit machine that ensures the punter
wins x amount but ultimately loses?

I really can’t figure it out

I just won on a blatantly obvious break out of consolidation
… I was expecting price to shoot back up at the very last
few seconds, but no, I won fair and square

If I concentrate on these high paying instruments I will
have far less setups, but you can trade all night and weekends
which might compensate a bit.

Its a bit creepy, knowing you are effectively competing against
a robot

what I don’t know yet is whether it is programmed to trade against
me as an individual, or if the charts are the same for everyone

If the former it is basically just an online casino

if the latter it could be tricky but doable

after all, figuring out the visual depiction of human emotion
can be close to impossible, AI may not be more unpredictable

for example it shouldn’t be affected by News releases although
the program may be so sophisticated that such events are
factored in.

The lure of Binary Options is that you can get quite good at it,
but at 70% payout or so, you really need to do the math

winning may not be enough - you need to almost never lose
which is not likely to be sustainable

but at around 85% payout, with a completely automated
system with immediate payout and no broker intervention

you might have a chance, but you still need to win most
of the time

If you can consistently win 70% of the time ROI is a healthy
29.5%

if 60% ROI is a more realistic 11%

Most would do well to win 50% of the time which would incur
-7.5% ROI

and a 40% win rate would be an account blowing - 26% ROI

I think I can win 70% of the time on currencies, but I would
find a losing run to hard to cope with

and I would find it hard to believe the generous 90% comes
without a price!

still, its worth checking out. especially if the example below
is likely to be typical

[Jerome32]

The maths will always work against you in
the above.

it has been a long time since I have been this
unlucky

the last three months I have managed a worse than 90%
losing rate!

Previously I’ve had good winning runs following trends and
reversals using several different systems

I’ve finally ended my three month losing streak

I’m now on a winning streak again trading reversals
although the system seems irrelevant

it is all psychology

[Jerome32]

Here are my recent winners and open positions, both
very healthy

Note my attempts to rewrite history. One trade GBFCHF
didn’t lose as such, it was closed because it was opened
in error, it being a CHF currency

the other black lined trade was immediately reopened.
It didn’t lose, I was modifying the TP and carelessly
closed the trade instead.

On both trades I acknowledge my carelessness, but
but neither trade lost fair and square, if there is such
an idiom as that.