Jerome's Journal

[Jerome32]

This is still a work in progress

I have often alluded to the only system I know that
has a 100% win rate. it really does.

I don’t like the system, and I’m sure most traders
wouldn’t like it

but after three months of consistent losing, a 100%
winning system does have an appeal.

Its a reversal system where you enter on a clear break of
trendline for a 75% win rate

but only if you have no stop, so the 25% of ‘losers’ null
and void all the winners

but that is only stage one, … you keep the chart open
and wait for the next setup

then, at break of new trendline go in again at x10 the
lot size of the first trade.

you see in the results below a perfect example of this.
AUDJPY lost but more than recouped on the subsequent
trade

so the strategy has a 100% win rate allowing for a
second trade to both recoup and make a good profit into
the bargain.

the entry I have blotted out the results is a
legitimate edit. You don’t trade CHF with this strategy

the results below and the actual chart example well
demonstrate how the strategy is supposed to work.

The strategy has been proven over 20 yrs on Daily,
but trades can drag on for several months, and then
lose, and you then may have to wait weeks or more
for a new setup on that currency

It works but it absolutely isn’t for me

I have adapted the strategy to the H1 which is unproven
as far as I know. even so, one position on H1 has been
open eight days and counting already, most trades close
within one or two days which suits me about right.

some points I am noting. …

I don’t trade everything

If there is contradictory Divergence between time frames I
will sit it out

Also the bias is toward the missed weekly and daily pivots,
and when you see a whole cluster above or below that
is a clear bias, as they will eventually all be hit

but if there are missed pivots above and below how can
you possibly think you have a bias either way?

Also, there are trendlines and trendlines, this can get very
subjective. we really need at least three touches

I am not too euphoric at this stage, this is an up and down
sort of system, you literally go to bed horribly drawndown
only to wake to find TPs were hit during the night

Although I am back to demo trading, I get stressed to
see DD hundreds of dollars … brings back the stress
of the thousands of real dollars I recently lost

so I am scaling right down to take away all stress

This strategy does require a lot of practice, especially
regarding the second setup, there is pressure not
to miss it for fear of not recouping the loss, and
then the danger it might not be fully qualifying
especially regarding the new trendline

[jeffre4]

Jerome
I am really late to the party but initially your journal was about engulfing candles.
I read the first posts with great interest and it looked a solid trading strategy.
Unfortunately it very quickly got muddled and i presume you left it behind.
Can i just ask was it profitable?? and if so why did you drop it??
It seemed quite straightforward and even a fool like me thought they could grasp it.
You have moved on to systems my simple mind cannot understand
Jeff

[justshell]

he’s just testing out different strategies to see what suits him, but it doesn’t need to be over-complicated either. Simplicity is one of the keys in my opinion. Every profitable retail trader I’ve seen doesn’t have a complicated strategy

[Jerome32]

I have closed a trade that would probably have won.
I might black it out of my results as I don’t intend
to take trades like this

Why not?

well first, here is the trade…

Looks like a good, qualifying setup

but when we stand back and look at the bigger picture
the Missed Pivot bias is far from bearish! I feel the
bearish bias is negated and when a bias is negated
how can it be considered a bias?

Here is a perfect setup, where we have divergence and all
the bias is bullish

all those missed pivots will be hit

at least thats a little light at the end of the tunnel

[Jerome32]

Four Trades looking good

[Jerome32]

After such a terrible three months of nothing but
losers, results are now very encouraging

As you see from colour coding, when we have a loser
we then enter again for a profit.

This is effectively a 100% winning strategy

I have never seen a loser ( utilizing two trades )
over many years

if the second trade did lose, it could be disastrous
without a stop. if the maximum loss was capped at 1%
or 2% then the initial trade wins would be virtually
cents

you do have to keep position sizes very small

[Jerome32]

As you can see in the above results, everything ended up
in profit except EURAUD, which has NOT lost, it is currently
down $298 pending the opening of a second position which
will more than recoup that amount.

The only reason I didn’t persist with this system over the
last few years I have known it, is because it is usually
traded on D1, and trades can literally drag on for months

That simply isn’t my trading style. I can resist the lure
of M1 scalping, well, it would be a lure if I had a winning
strategy, but I can’t be involved with months of tedious
consolidation.

Trading the H1 is a very happy medium for me, as positions
usually close within one or two days

and whilst the 100% win rate is not proven, initial results
are extremely encouraging, as the system seems to follow
the same pattern as on the D1

and I have made some refinements which are the same
for all timeframes

Bias must mean Bias!

**I need to see a cluster of missed weekly and daily pivots **
either above or below price and NEVER trade against
that direction!

Below we see the anticipated second Pending Order for
EURAUD which should bring that pair into a nice profit
after the initial current $298 drawdown

and here is probably the not so obvious Key Point

How do you feel when you ‘lose’ $298?

Personally I feel gutted, demoralized, that same old
sinking feeling that most of you reading this know only too
well.

But for the first time in my life, I’m looking at a $298 ‘loss’
with total nonchalance

and this absolutely is not bravado

This is very good Psychology, and that is 90%
of trading success!

I just see the colour coded pattern above, and note that
it is indeed a pattern, one that has been documented
over 20 years.

Simply put. most trades win on the first attempt, but
they always win on the second recoup trade.

I would like some safeguard in the event that the
second position fails, maybe a third trade that
just attempts to recoup the DD with no profit.

That would make sense, if you try for a big profit
on the third attempt and fail, you are probably
out of the game, whereas you should make those
very few pips needed to recoup at least some of
the DD - and of course, live to fight another day.

[Jerome32]

In this sc we see the typical 2nd recovery PO, and you see where
the first position lost

it looks like the second position is moving in the wrong direction
but this system is deceptively profitable. over the weekend
things have turned around already…

and the results over the last 30 trades since 16/10/2019 has been
100% profitable (excluding CHF and No Bias trades)

quite a contrast to the previous three months close to 100%
losers!

it will be interesting to see how long this winning rate can be sustained

PS the four boxed winners were in fact losers but loss was recouped
with profit on the subsequent recovery trade

[Jerome32]

Sell By Date

The original rule was there must be divergence, but
the system originator would sometimes count a past divergence
going way back, and maybe a very slight divergence

I can’t help feeling a big current divergence would be preferable

especially on H1 I can afford to pick and choose

Here is a current situation
we see 1 … very small divergence
2 break of trendline

TP was not hit

3 second entry

if the 2nd position fails I might suspect the divergence
is too small and too old

maybe I should have given trade much more breathing
space before closing

I would be happier if divergence came after that momentum move
but we’ll see

[Jerome32]

The Blind Fold System

I am very tempted to trade a system blindfolded.

to compare the results with my almost 100% losers
from 1st August to 16th October

They nearly all lost despite careful analysis

I couldn’t possibly have done worse blindfolded!!

[Jerome32]

but from 16th October until now, about one
month, all 35 trades have resulted in profit,
either straightaway or after a recovery trade

I don’t know if analysis is necessary as everything
wins anyway, but I don’t think I should take it
for granted.

Along with divergence and MP bias, sometimes
the HTF can be very encouraging, as in SC
below

[Jerome32]

More Worthwhile Analysis

might be to find an optimal stop, ideally a mental
stop to avoid spikeouts

On the D1 400 pips is recomended as a mental stop
on first trade

How does that translate to H1?

I have made a spreadsheet of all pairs that won first
time out (ie most of them)

and GB probably needs about 150 pip stop at the moment,
even on Hourly

One instance of NZDCAD needed 54 pip Stop

but all other trades never went more than 33 pips
in the wrong direction

Imagine how useful this will be as it builds up

Just as a preliminary guide

If I scrapped the Recovery trade strategy and just traded
the first position only with a 50 pip Stop across the board

I would have had six first time losers with a total loss of -300 pips
but the other 30 winning trades would have made +1,049 pips!

This present idea of the x 10 second position never losing is great
but it it a sword of Damocles situation

Most of the time Damocles was doing great

If you remove the x10 factor you can increase your first position
x 10 to equate to 1% or 2% of account

So many of these First position trades win, but they can only win a few cents
because you must be able to afford the x10 Lot size when they do lose

On the other hand the original system is amazing

I really don’t understand why the second recovery trade ALWAYS
works

Since when has there been a word ‘Always’ in the Forex vocabulary?

I will keep monitoring everything

and eventually I will find a profitable Sweet Spot

This is definitely the best system I have ever traded.

I just need to keep on testing it out on Demo

[Jerome32]

What comes First, the Winners or the Psychology?

If you just keep on having winners its going to affect
your psychology

I’m trying to stay grounded, knowing that very long
losing streaks are an ever present fact of life

but I must say, after a few more winners closed during the
night, this system is performing remarkably well after 30
days trial.

\the one edit on my latest results, as previously mentioned
was not a setup as I would have been trading against the
MP Bias. I closed the trade as soon as I saw my mistake.

To let the entry stand would be correct if I was mainly concerned
about discipline etc. but at the moment I am more interested in
accurate results from TRUE setups, not skewed by careless
mistakes

I am so encouraged by the first month’s results that I have
installed my old Trade Manager which calculates the Lot size
based on Stop level.

Once the order is placed, you can delete the actual Stop
and just use that level as a guide

[Jerome32]

Some overlap on the SCs below but 100% winning strategy
for the last month bringing the DD of $8,200 up to the closing
balance of $10,118

I don’t mind making 23% profit per month

I have closed this demo account as FXPro have appalling
reviews

I can’t easily return to my Live account as XM enforce
up to 20 pips or more for pending orders

also when you are nearing TP and need to go out. you
would place a nearby Stop which may or may not be
hit.

with XM you can’t place a nearby Stop so you have
to stay by PC to close manually if necessary.

XM are ok on Daily TF as 20 pips is not usually a problem,
but on H1 it is untenable.

So I have opened an account with Global Prime, who seem to
have the best reviews with no legitimate complaints except
quite high SWAPS, but glowing recommendations otherwise.

So my 23% per month profit is now guaranteed?

Not exactly. Everything in DD over the last week, and even
allowing for different broker server times it should even out.

I am conscious that psychological sabotage could be resurfacing
here, causing me to completely change or abandon my winning
strategy.

If something really worked so well for me for last month, and for
others for the last 20 years, its worth persisting

but with total nonchalance

just check in a couple of times a day with TOTAL INDIFFERENCE to
the outcome

Robotic as hell

It is only when emotions enter the picture, fear and greed
that things go wrong

If you avoid these two negatives and cultivate the positive
quality of PATIENCE, you should do very well if
you have a proven strategy.

I know one guy on this forum with the most widely read thread
just about, but never quite makes it into consistent profit, although
like me he does come close

but to read his diary entries is disturbing, the guy is so intense
on success he seems to be pushing it away with his obsessive
behaviour!

so determined! up at 5.00am for Buddhist meditation, then down to
the gym to work out, then the positive affirmations, them the EFT tapping,
yoga and hypnosis, the exhaustive analysis of the Fundamental News
from over 30 leading pundits, then the technical analysis.then a break
for a couple of hours for allotted reading of all the recommended trading
books

It doesn’t matter how many accounts he blows he won’t give up. it
just makes him even more determined to add more self help exercises
and more books and trading resources to his daily routine

There is something known to behaviour experts known as
’ the Law of Relaxation’, or the ‘Law of Reversed Effort’

This guy is living proof of that law, you can try too hard! and
such mental intensity is counter productive

The mind must be relaxed or you will not be seeing reality
when you scrutinise the charts

then ‘analysis paralyses’ sets in and you never win, as in the
case of this guy

I’m determined not to go down that road. I was winning for a
month in a very relaxed way. I’, not going to get stressed now
because of teething problems with a new broker.

My guess is that I will get back into form over the next week or so.

I haven’t had any losers, its just the winners haven’t happened yet

Patience!

[Jerome32]

London Open

Still have several positions open but the system has
been very slow last two weeks, but I will stick with it

In the meantime I visited a site recommended by Snipe2020
and found a very simple system that seems to work well

its the three Candle system

I’ve actually found it loses generally but during London
Open it can be quite spectacular

an hour later it just doesn’t seem to work

System aside, a little reminder that timing can be
everything

Trading a lesser system at the right time will likely
be more volatile and profitable than trading a ‘better’
system during the graveyard shift

we see that trading the exact same system a little after
the LO just didn’t work out, so I closed for around BE

otherwise I would have lost badly!

[Jerome32]

Nice Profit!

I made $13.13 today trading strictly LO and NY Open

I absolutely don’t believe it is a coincidence that I
could do this well trading the M1!!

I can take very little credit, but I have never traded the M1
successfully before! its all about time of day

I am mainly now trading the Snipe2020 system and for the
avoidance of doubt, Snipes results are 100% genuine, and
he really is averaging over 13% profit per day

It can be done!

I personally wouldn’t set my sights quite so high myself, not after
the recent devastation of my live account

but 1% per day would be more than enough, and far
more than i deserve

so I have to decide about my main system which I keep
coming back too because it actually is the only consistently
profitable system i know

On the D1 trades can literally drag on for months, and even
on the H1 which also seems profitable, the last setup was on
14th November, three weeks ago!

All the hanging around really isn’t my style of trading, despite
it being a profitable system.

In the end, consistent profits is what its all about, whether or
not we like the system

But the idea of usually winning at London Open and then to be free
for the rest of the day has great appeal

but the system may be sound, it remains to be seen how I may
find a way to louse up

Also I need to find out from Snipe why he doesn’t trade Fridays
Market manipulation, or is he simply not available to trade Fridays?

[Jerome32]

More Nice Profit!

I already see the danger here. This is a licence to print money!
an income for life! just like all the Get Rich Quick gurus tell you!

well no actually

I do think the strategy may be the best thing I’ve ever tried in
the last fifteen years or so I’ve been trading ( BTW if I had tried
it fifteen years ago it would have failed miserably)

and even now I might not sustain the profit, especially if
I get a little too jubilant. Of course its not a crime to be human,
its just not always the most profitable option.

That could be a famous quote one day

Staying level headed is a very big deal in trading, and that
is my overriding focus at the moment. the system is fine,
it needs very little, or preferable nothing added or subtracted,
with one notable caveat

I had three great wins this morning at London Open.
but also one loss

at the time I was ok about that because it made the system
seem more real, and not just a dream world if you know
what I mean

You can see below the LWMA 60 wasn’t green, actually
it was when I entered, it turned white only after the
trade went against me.

However, I should not have taken that trade!

a mere glance at Stochastic plus the fact the MA had only
barely turned green should have been a red light.

I’m undecided about NY Open. Unless it is as good as
London I see no reason to risk handing my winnings back.

but overall, this seems an exceptional system, although
GBPAUD may not always perform so well, so I guess
you need to be ready to switch to a more volatile instrument
if necessary, as Snipe has done.

I have asked Snipe about Fridays, and I think I will go in
with very small positions to test the water

but Timing is absolutely everything, and London Open
rules supreme.

Today pips made were 12, -16, 26, 13

[Jerome32]

In choosing the best volatility pairs at any given time
The Trading View Forex Screener is probably as
good as it gets

sure enough GBPAUD is soaring above everything at the
moment at 58% against 26% also ran

Its worth keeping an eye on this as GBPAUD will not
always be performing this well

[Jerome32]

A little common sense would suggest we wait for break
of Trendline and for 60 to be in a true Upward Green

[Jerome32]

I missed this nice trade at NY Open

In this case, exit at close over 20 with MA changing colour

but Snipe2020 has made an incredible Trend finding Indicator,
which absolutely wipes the floor with Forextrendy. Highly
recommend you shoot over and pick it up, even if you don’t
like his system his Indie is outstandingly useful!