Johnnykanoo

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
1

Look who’s back, back again Johnny’s back tell a friend…

Hi there, it’s been a while. Needless to say I have had a tumultuous end to 2012. I don’t want to get into details but just to say I had to liquidate most of my fx funds. I’m not only disappointed in what happened but I am also disappointed in myself for not finding another way. So much so that I really felt like quitting trading. Not because I wasn’t successful but because now I have to start all over again and I struggled with it. Do I want to start over? is it worth it?

to answer my own question…

Hell ya its worth it!!!

Most of you know I’ve been around for a while and I have tried just about everything under the sun to win at this game. As of the last couple of years I have found great success in automated trading but I always held onto the belief that manual traders that were good can far out pace automated trading and that is evidenced in my own trading.

To be totally honest I have done what many said was impossible and that is I earned a very nice and very consistent profit from ea’s but if I were to be totally honest I almost always took on way to much risk and many ea’s that I love turned into a tug of war earn lose earn lose and this cycle went on and on.

One of the only reasons I did well with ea’s and many don’t is because I use my intuition an experience to help shape my trading decisions and again not to toot my own horn but I did have a winning strat.

Here’s the thing liquidating my main account hurt me so bad and literally feels devastating to me but I am going to “make lemonade” The time I spent away was a much needed break and I come back refreshed and renewed and with a new sense of resolve.

I am going to have an automated portfolio BUT I will keep that a very small trivial part of my portfolio. I am going to focus on price action trading as the cornerstone. I will have to find some discipline to get up to trade London but it will be worth it to me.

I will be using Michael Huddleston’s methodology of time and price analysis coupled with some stuff I have picked up over the years but hands down Michael is the best trader I know and a real inspiration to me so my focus will be largely on his material.

I plan to write a trading model I may or may not post it here I’m not sure yet. One thing is for sure. I am excited.

Anyway Let’s pop a bottle of Dom Perignon White Gold Jeroboam and toast to 2013. Let this be our year!

2

Okay I feel like ranting a little mostly for my benefit. I do realize this is a trade journal and I will be posting my ideas but…

I’m thinking about success and why do some get it and some never do. For one you have to KNOW in your heart and mind that you will succeed. I think of some really great and successful people and they all have this in common.

For one I think of Will Smith. He is one of the most inspirational people I can think of and you may watch his movies and think it all comes so easy but the fact is he never stops working. How can somebody be so driven to work as hard as Will Smith? Simple he Knows he will succeed and with this knowledge comes the reality that success is not free and even if you are talented you still need to work hard but at the core of it all is the belief in his own success.

I just feel like surrounding myself with success that is why I changed my avatar to John D Rockefeller. Talk about successful guy! He started out as a bookeeper and went on to found Standard Oil By the time he retired he was worth 340 billion dollars and that was in 1897!

“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”
― Winston S. Churchill

Will Smith sums up my philosophy on life pretty well when he says, " In my mind, I’ve always been an A-list Hollywood superstar. Y’all just didn’t know yet."

Point I’m trying to make is if you believe with all your heart that you know you will be successful, that you already are successful that success is assured its just a matter of time.

edit I decided to change my avatar to honor Larry Williams. Michael has spoken about him as if he is the best trader on earth and coming from him that is quite an endorsement. BTW I am not quoting verbatim just the sense and since Michael is the best trader I know I have to value his opinion on Larry Williams and actually I am going to get busy reading his stuff.

4

Welcome Back Johnny :slight_smile:

I saw many of your posts in the past and enjoyed it. When I was active in this forum I didn’t see you around. Like Buckscoder. I hope you continue posting here.

I’m not going to quote some of the sentence to reiterate the point you mentioned. But those are awesome posts.

Happy pipping.

5


Trading Model

Pairs:
EUR/USD
GBP/USD

Risk: Never risk more than 2% per trade!
Risk:Reward Never risk more than the reward period! 1:1 at least
Time frame:
Top down analysis starting from the weekly down to the 5m
Trades will be managed mostly on the 5m

Identify key reactionary levels

Weekly S & R
Daily S & R
4 hour S & R
1 Hour S & R
5 min & 15 min S & R
**only Identify obvious levels and fine tune those levels as you move down
Do not have a million lines on your chart.

Recent swing highs and lows
Take note of pivot levels

Key Fibs
Especially noting Optimal Trade Entry

*I may potentially have more key levels I eye and I will add them as they occur to me

Market Structure
Look for a bearish or bullish market structure. I define these as follows
The market structure is bullish when the market is making higher highs and higher lows
The market structure is bearish when the market is making lower highs and lower lows

So one of the most important first steps in my model is to decide if the market is bearish or bullish.

I will take into account my higher time frame analysis to get an overall idea.
Market structure is critical if there is a break in structure than I will also shift my perspective for example if I am long biased in cable and than a new lower low prints
Than I will begin to look for short opportunities

**I plan to incorporate inter market analysis into my model. This will take some time and I will fill this stuff in as I go.
I will also be looking for risk on and risk off scenarios. And that is related to fundamental analysis which I am also working on. I do know I want to incorporate open interest and bond yields and stuff like that. It is forthcoming!

The more confluences I have with my overall trade idea the more probable I will
Win the trade so I am seeking to have as many things line up as possible.

Time to trade
Right now my focus will be on the London open and the London session. I will be factoring in the Asian range and expecting some Judas swing type activity at the open

Its hard for me to put into words exactly how I will trade and this is a discretionary model. I will be looking at markets being engineered and try to follow the smart money

I will be looking for confluence at key levels

Key S & R
Fibs especially ote
Price patterns

**I will be following the concepts laid out by ICT’s Market Maker Profiles

My stops will be at least 30 pips and may be more as determined by the most recent swing high or low or potentially the second last swing high or low depending on size of stop.

My take profit will be broken down into levels and my first take profit will be at least the same size as the stop.

My second take profit will be determined by the most recent swing high or low
Fib extension 100% or other extension levels maxing out at 200%

I will be looking for trades during the London Session and will look to close them by 1800 gmt unless I am swing trading.

I will be using the Asian range from 0-5 gmt (accumulation stage for the daily range)
I will be anticipating an initial “fake out” in price
Than I will be looking to get in a trade based on trade patterns and or ote at key levels
I will take initial profit at 1:1 or what ever level greater than 1:1 risk reward that seems appropriate and based on market conditions and type of trade I will let a percentage of my trade go until the daily range is fulfilled and close by 1800 gmt

**I can’t say this enough Michael Huddleston thank you sooo very much for all your efforts!!! You are an amazing teacher and the fact that you have probably spent thousands of hours preparing all this material for us is just awe inspiring. I happen to know that if I were to go out and buy every book and every seminar it would take to teach me these concepts that it would be into the 10’s of thousands of dollars.

Besides that your unique perspective and ability to explain in great and comprehensible terms is just awesome and not sold in stores :smiley:

…I am working on my model and I will no doubt be incorporating inter-market analysis as well as some fundamentals. For me it is akin to learning Mandarin but I will persist.

Also noteworthy I will be starting my trading on demo basically the second week of January or if I go live it will be with extremely low risk like .5% or some trivial amount.

So many things are clicking for me now.

Always remember the sky’s the limit!

6

Well I have been trying to wake up for 2:00 am and not doing to bad at it. I took some longer term trade ideas of the daily and than spotted a little intraday set up which was really a fractal off the daily

Long fiber @ 1.3060 stop at 1.3000 take first profit @ 1.3120 for 1:1 than I will close half and let half go I will not doubt close a little out before my final goal of hitting the 1.3300 area which is at the 161% extension

**However I am stalking a short if price can reach the 1.3200 level which would be an ote short of the daily so I think I will take 100% profit if it hits 1.3200

1.9.13 fiber long.jpg700×380 39.4 KB

1.9.13 fiber long slide 2.jpg700×380 41.2 KB

Cable Long 1.6017 stop loss @ 1.5950 tp1 @ 1.6090 tp2 1.6300 region (I will manage my tp along the way but ultimately I will let 20% of my position go if I am right.

this chart has the wrong fibs. I was playing around with it but if I pulled the fibs up to that spike high I get a perfect ote long

1.9.13 cable long near ote.jpg700×380 38.4 KB

**the only thing I don’t like is market structure appears to be down now so I am being a little reckless with this trade. It is demo so I went for it. If it were real I would have went for it too but at a reduced rate.

1.9.13 cable long near ote slide 2 bearish structure.jpg700×380 41.5 KB

7

two things

first, my timing may have not been great but is forgiveable considering I am planning to hold these trades for a couple days or even a week or longer.

It is 1800 gmt and if this were just a day trade than I would be pulling the plug right now. But ironically I am finally in profit (just a tiny bit) but I could have had a better entry

Two I am trading3.3 full lots I don’t know what I was thinking it should be .33 lots so my risk is 20% per trade, this is by accident it should have been 2% good thing its demo :smiley:

8

You are lucky though with the account. Once I made this mistake after then I always double checked the lots. Any way I think the pairs gonna north.

Will comment later.

Happy pipping.

9

My trades are hovering around +40 right now If I got in at a better price (which I should have but I was impatient) than I would have taken first profit at +60

10

There is no sign of exhaustion right now. It may go even higher from now. On EU, If today’s daily candle close above 1.3170 and not showing any bearish momentum (means a pin bar in 4H or 1H) then the next target is 1.3250 and 1.3300. This pair is surely in uptrend.

Like EU, GU next target is 1.6160 then 1.6300. But we need a close above 1.6100.

Patience is virtue. Even in Demo if you are so emotional and impatient then how will you trade in Live account? :smiley: no preaching mate. You are more experience than me. Just wait and see what is happening these levels.

happy pipping.

11

well I closed most of the position at +210 and +147 but I am letting a little bit go to see how far they can go

12

just not seeing any great setups I see fiber would have been okay to short but I wasn’t feeling it