Well, ducks are aligned on usdjpy and cadjpy. USD and CAD are almost the same in strength at the moment, so I’m going to buy the one that first breaks the recent high.
I think I’m going to like more cadjpy because the recent higher low on higher time frame is better.
I agree, UDS/JPY might be running out of steam and we’re going to see a correction. It would be nice to see a pull-back down toward the 4-hour 60ma around the 92.00 – 92.50 area and then catch it heading back up on a strong trend again. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Basically I removed gold/silver pairs, because I start trading them like an investment, only buying the dips with very small positions, making dollar cost averaging.
I also added ALL the majors and crosses and removed any other pair.
I started trading with short and long term view.
The short term trading is mandatory. If I see a short term trade with the ducks & trends then I place it. But if the stop of that short term trade matches the point of reversal on a long term previous low (for buy, use previous high for sell), then I also add a trade that is handled different, using long term highs/lows for the trailing stop.
I also check daily the correlation of all the crosses to avoid me using correlated pair at the same time. I only enter the best of the group, and the first of them.to be available for trading. Once I have one trade open, I don’t add any other trade to any of the correlated pairs (>=70% or <=-70%) until I have all the current trades with profit locked.
I’m also developing a way to use the swings in a very mechanical way, no judment, no interpretation or trader thinking.
The best pair for a long position with the new method for next week is CHFJPY. It seems to be bouncing the 4h SMA, and it looks as the strongest pair matched with weakest pair.
I’m with a buy stop order on chfjpy at 102.05
I’m short on cadchf and audnzd
I’m long on gbpjpy and nzdcad
The most recent is audnzd
I placed another sell on audnzd for a long term trade with the stop above the swing formed by the yellow zigzag. I think that is a great entry to ride a long term trend. This is my first long term trade using the ducks. I think this one can last for about 3 months and give about 1500-2500 pips with a stop of 92 pips; if it works the way I expect, the risk:reward is going to be fantastic, 1:10 or 1:25, a total of 25% of my equity on a single trade would be wonderful! Specially if risking only 1%
I’m having some problems with my short term entries. I have good (pretty good indeed!) entries, but very, very ugly exits. I’m then setting take profit targets. I’m starting with 1:1.1 risk reward because I measured the average move from the entry point to the max point just before a drop to stop loss.
Also, I’m moving the stop loss to break even when in an uptrend I see lower lows or lower highs (inverse for down trends).
Lots of my trades are almost on the target, and a good number of them have +50 pips. Some of my trades are also winners with profits locked.
If I shall close all my current short term trades my account could grow about 7%.
That is very good for a couple of trading days!
I have long audjpy, chfjpy, eurgbp, just closed long nzdcad +49.1 pips
I have short gbpchf, gbpnzd, just closed (while I was writing this) audnzd for +72.4 pips
I have on long term trades
long chfjpy, eurgbp and short audnzd
Indeed, good day for duck hunting today!
Some time after this, I closed for audjpy 3.1 pips (3.1 pips is my new break even. If I got stopped out at BE, I would like to exit with small profit, instead of zero), and also gbpchf for +83.9 pips
Looking again to my short term trades I think I now know why a lot of them were stopped out for loss after being in profits. It is because elliot waves.
Looking at various charts, I see that when the ducks finally aligns, on 5m view the pair is already on half of wave 3 or starting the wave 5. So, if I’m in the middle of wave 3 I could get more profits, but if I’m on wave 5, I’m limited to that wave size.
And after I make a new higher high, I should consider it the moment for the A-B-C waves, so I should be taking profits on that point to avoid the retracement.
The point now is to define the most probable length of move 3 and 5, to place my targets on a sound statistical point, instead of arbitrary point.
Well, the last trade I closed just before going to sleep.
a short for gbpnzd, with +252.4 pips very nice! All my trades today sum about +2.8% of my account.
I think that the addition of target on short time trades is a good improvement that gets me out with profit at better points.
Also I think that my 7 point pattern is nothing more than elliott waves. So I’m going to study the fibonacci ratios on elliott waves to set better my targets, stops and calculate the probable strength of a trade before deciding to take it or pass it.