The ducks aligned for me and I’m long on eurgbp, usdjpy, usdchf and audcad.
This is the usdjpy chart
The ducks aligned for me and I’m long on eurgbp, usdjpy, usdchf and audcad.
This is the usdjpy chart
I’m hunting on a short on EURAUD.
My AUDCAD is running good, eurgbp, usdchf and usdjpy are wondering where to go.
I just shoot the ducks for short cadjpy! The signals are OK but what I have some doubts is about having usdjpy long and cadjpy short. I know that they are correlated and maybe this is a type of profitable hedge trade, but it could be also a double burn trade: I entered the trade because the signals are OK on both and the long on usdjpy is still valid.
If the cadjpy trade is right and the usdjpy is not, then the profit for cadjpy is going to cover all the loss of usdjpy. The same if it is inverse.
This is cadjpy
This is usdjpy with the entry marked
Well, the cadjpy trade was stopped out at BE. Maybe the yen is weak enough for long trades. We need to wait some time to see if the long usdjpy was the right path.
I’m long on audcad, eurchf, eurgbp, nzdchf, nzdusd, usdchf and usdjpy
Short on euraud, gbpaud, gbpchf
So it seems that the pound is weak, the aussie is strong, the same as the kiwi.
On eurgbp and nzdchf I placed trades for long term and short term.
My short term trades aim to get 2.5 times the risk, while the long term trades follow the big picture trend trailing the stops until the stop gets me out.
So far the best right now is audcad with +81 pips and about +65 pips locked.
Well, it seems that the cadjpy trade was right and the usdjpy was wrong. After my stop closed cadjpy at BE, the pair continued down for at least 40 pips, while the usdjpy is at -62 pips now, and approaching to the stop.
Well, that is not a problem, because it is only a small loss of my current trades
Medisoft,
I like what you’re doing so far. It appears that you’re using the “Ducks” to create some smart “Basket” trades.
I.E. you’re “long on audcad, eurchf, eurgbp, nzdchf, nzdusd, usdchf and usdjpy and
Short on euraud, gbpaud, gbpchf.”
Happy Duck hunting!:35:
That is not baskets, what they are is trades that follow the rules, with pairs that are not strong correlated.
for example, I can’t open two buy trades if one is usdjpy and the other is cadjpy, because they are too correlated to risk money on both for the same direction.
In this case audcad, eurchf are not currently correlated with any other pair in the majors + crosses
eurgbp, nzdchf, nzdusd, usdchf and usdjpy have other correlated pairs, so when I’m inside one of them I can’t trade all the others for the same direction, because if I miss interpreted the signals and the trade fails, if I would be allowed to trade 2 correlated pairs, both of them could lose, and I will get double burned.
Nice duck hunting!
I have a question, if you don’t mind. I think you mentioned measuring the angle of the SMA on the 4H chart. How do you do this consistently (since zooming in/out on the charts will change the angle). Is there a number of bars that you set on your 4H to get a consistent measurement of angle?
Sorry medisoft and others who are following your journal.
“Basket” was not an appropriate word to use in discribing what you’re doing. What I wanted to say was simply that I like the way that you’re applying the Duck rules into your trading decisions. At first glance it appears that your exposure is spread amongst more than one pair which may reduce risk and that’s when my first thought came to me was that this is like a “basket” or hedge. sorry for the confusion.
Happy Duck hunting
Nice thread. Also why don’t you use the EMA instead of the SMA for this?
Yes, I use a fixed number of bars.
I use a screen resolution of 1280x1024. My screen has about 1200 bars in maximum zoom out. I use that measure to calculate the angle.
I simply check the max value and min value on that interval of candles, and knowing my screen resolution I then calculate the angle with the slope and gradians
Read the original thread. There it is specific SMA for the duck hunting.
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/6580-3-ducks-trading-system-1.html
Today was a mixed day. Some winners and other loosers that make my day a low day with -2.5%.
Well, tomorrow is another trading day.
I know the system and how SMAs and EMAs work, my question was when looking at angles on the 4H chart, have you tried looking at EMA instead of SMA. I started off years back using SMAs but now moved to EMAs as they work better (apart from the 200 SMA which is set in stone for me on the daily).
It makes absolutely no difference whatsoever whether you use ems’s or sma’s in the context of that approach on those timeframes. The moving average is only there as a visual crutch anyway.
It’s been said before on that thread that if you removed the moving average & focused on what that multi-timeframe set up was actually highlighting, the trades would follow a very logical & established momentum sequence.
Its there simply to direct newcomers to the approach to follow a price action cycle to assist with getting in tune with the current pairs trend.
Nop, only on SMA
EMA works faster, but what I want to see is a strong enough trend to move the slower SMA.
Because EMA is faster, it could also signal false trends. Of course, if the trend is real, it can give early signals, but as I know, the trend following systems aims to get 50% of the trend.
The learning of this week.
First, I learnt that the big picture is important to define the size of stops. If my trade is in tune with the big picture, I can use small stops, thus bigger lots. If I’m taking riskier counter trend trades, I must use bigger stops and look for various levels to be broken before I enter the trade.
To look for weekly limits, to see if a pair has enough room to move before touching a weekly huge S/R.
Not to be too aggressive with trailing stops. In fact, if I place a target (take profit) level and have a risk:reward ratio greater than 1:2, I should not move the stop and let my trade to run until the end.
Look for trades on the 1h/4h time frame. Then scale to 5m if necessary to fine tune the entry. After that, zoom out to 1h/4h to manage the trade (if it requires to be managed).
If the signals are OK and the filters are OK also, take the trade. Don’t listen my guts, trade by instruments, almost mechanically.
The longer the time frame used to place stops, the better. Less lot size, but also less risk to be stopped out.
The best of the best trades emerges when the price comes from one side of the 4H AND 1H SMAs to the other side. The rest of the trades must make that move from one side of the 1H SMA to the other.
When a trade is going to be managed, pay special attention to W/M patterns (double top or bottom) because they can imply end of a trend and could be good point to move the stops. Sometimes it is a “false” reversal point, but if it is for real, it can save lots of problems, and if its fake, there is almost always a point to trade the ducks after a false double top or bottom.
I’m attaching the script and template I use for duck hunting.
The script works with drag and drop. Once installed, just drop it on the point you want to buy or sell. It ask you about the risk (in percent, 1% by default). If the market price is above, then it places a sell order, if below a buy.
Then you can drag the lines on the screen and drop to the point of entry, stop and take profits. You can remove the take profits line to leave a running trade without target, but you are forced to always put a stop loss.
The stop loss, if you have the objects comment active, shows the money risked, the money expected and the risk reward ratio. The entry line shows the number of lots you are going to operate with the current parameters.
Obviously, if the stop is far away from the entry, the lots will be less, and if it is near they will be more.
By default it places the target about 2.5 times the stop. The stop is by default placed at 100 pips plus 2 times the spread. You should adjust the levels according your analysis, entry points and time frames.
The template is designed for viewing on 1h and 5m. You can use it on other timeframes without a problem, just the SMAs varies.
The bold red line is always current time frame 60 periods SMA. The dotted line is the 4h sma when you are on 1h or 5m, the solid, thinner red line is the 1h sma on 5m view.
3ducksmanual.zip (47.7 KB)
Two trades were bought with the ducks and my script today. I found that using a virtual entries instead of normal stop orders is better when the orders are going to run on the weekend. In this charts you can see that should I had stop orders I would be filled a very bad price, but because my orders were virtual, and they are handled like stop-limit orders, the price filled was just 1-2 pips from the entry I marked on my chart.