Jolu Warrior - My journey in numbers!

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
1

G’day Mates,

I’ll just keep the first post precise and a quick one to read, explaining a bit about myself and what I intend to compile in this thread.

[B]~ Trading Background ~[/B]

  1. Forex - 2 years
  2. Equities/Indices - 11 years as an investor | 6 years as an apprentice trader
  3. Commodities - 2 years (Bullion - 2 and Oil - 1)
    [B]P.S.:[/B] Neither am I a professional trader, nor am I the Master Shifu of trading :58:

[B]~ Trading Style ~[/B]

  1. Forex - Day | Swing.
  2. Equities - Swing | Position
  3. Commodities - Swing | Position

[B]~ Traded Instrument(s) ~[/B]
CFD’s at present.

[B]~ Traded Forex Pairs ~[/B]

  1. Major pairs
  2. Yen Crosses
  3. Selective crosses - AUD/NZD

[B]~ Traded Indices ~[/B]
ASX200 | DAX30 | FTSE100 | S&P500 | DOW30 | NKY225

[B]~ Traded Commodities ~[/B]
Gold | Oil

[B]~ What my trading journal would look like ~[/B]
My thread/journal here wouldn’t be a market commentary or real-time feed of market based data. Instead, I’d look upon this thread as a medium of sharing bits and pieces of knowledge that I have in number crunching, when it comes to trade conditions mentioned above.
If anything scribbled in this thread benefits your trade decisions in any capacity, that’d be awesome!!
But having an extra pair of minds brainstorming shared ideas wouldn’t hurt either. So I’d request all readers to share here, any ambiguity/incorrect info/incorrect deduction, that they may come across in my posts.
Yes, I am prone to mistakes. A humane thingy, isn’t it :slight_smile:

[B]–>[/B] I’ll be sharing each trade idea that I come up with or have executed in my account, irrespective of the outcome, in a different post to this journal.
[B]–>[/B] I’ll be posting an update/chart check to the trade ideas posted, in order to locate clues that could govern targets/stop losses or cancel the idea altogether. Kindly note, that this update may not be real-time.
[B]–>[/B] This first post of this thread, that is this one, would have a section showing the Trade Summary. I intend to update this section at 09:00 AEST everyday.
[B]–>[/B] A post will be dedicated at the end of each calendar week highlighting some analyses for the trades closed in that week.
[B]–>[/B] A post will be dedicated at the end of each calendar month highlighting some analyses for the trades closed in that month.

The Trade Summary would have 3 sections within -

  1. Deals
  2. Positions
  3. Orders

[B]~ Trade Summary ~[/B]
Please visit the link below for my Trade Summary.

[UNDER MAINTENANCE](UNDER MAINTENANCE)

[I]A bit of a log (2 days of trades) is pending to be included in the Trade Summary. The link would be updated shortly.[/I]

[B]~ Monthly Stat Checks ~[/B]

[ul]
[li]January 2017
[/li][li]February 2017
[/li][/ul]

[B]~ Monthly Performance Meter (Forex) ~[/B]

Coming soon!!

[B]~ Monthly Performance Meter (Equities + Commodities) ~[/B]

Coming soon!!

Thank you for your time and for reading this journal. Good luck in your trading endeavours!

So, let’s begin with the journey…

2

Let’s start by looking at the D1 chart.

0kJgn.jpg700×366 33.5 KB

The gradual cooling of price in the middle of December kept the pair within a range of 116.30-118.60, while sticking to the descending trend-line. Price managed to bounce off the trend-line, but reversed sharply in last 2 days after re-testing the mid December 2016 highs.

The sharp reversal has broken through the 11.4% Fib level of the post US election rise and has found interim support right at the previous descending trend-line.

Now lets look at the H1 chart.

ZkJgn.jpg700×423 35.2 KB

At the time of writing , the sharp bounce off the trend-line is evident.
The double top on the daily at 118.60 could be the first signs of short term reversal occurring in this pair.

So am setting up a SELL order at 116.30, expecting price to rebound to the lower end of the previous range, with a target at 112.10, which is at the 38% Fib of the rise from near 101 levels.

3

Following is the H4 chart for this pair.

dwbgn.jpg700×423 31.2 KB

Since yesterday, GJ made higher highs and higher lows in succession and managed to move into the Ichimoku cloud. Sharp reversal from cloud top got it back to the ascending TL from this week’s lows.

I’m expecting this TL to hold as good support on H4 and so a setup to buy for a break higher. Stops can be placed below the cloud support levels.

4

H1 chart of this pair could be showing signs of an intraday drop from current levels.
Bearish divergence in RSI.
MACD crossing lower.

Could be sold at 1180 with target 1173.2 and stop 1185.5.

kCbgn.jpg700×549 59.7 KB

5

Target for this trade changed to 1170.5.
Reasons for this trade that were cited already are holding good. Plus from an update of H1 chart below, price got rejected strongly from the descending TL off this week’s highs.

jLbgn.jpg700×549 62.2 KB

38.2% Fib (1170.20) on the rise from 1146 this week could act as a good re-test point, as it sits right at the top of the rising channel that this pair broke out of in the last 2 days.

This trade is panning out well. But sharing an update to the H1 chart here, which is slowly breaking down on the price.
Next thing that I’m watching out for is a potential HnS pattern that could form. Still early days for this pattern, but we shall see.

Personally I’m not a fan of HnS in smaller timeframes, but this one caught my attention because of the croc teeth-type rise and fall in this pair since it cleared 1150.

Updated H1_XAUUSD.jpg700×220 30.3 KB

6

This is an intraday trade, that I think could work out leading to the NFP release today.
However, this is a high-risk trade idea, especially after the plunge this pair tool in the daily chart yesterday.

For me, this is an intraday hedge for my short USDJPY position, as it offers a decent RR.
The idea is based on the H1 chart and kinda opposite to my idea of short XAUUSD.

Reasons for this trade are positive divergence on RSI, signs of bottoming near 115.30 and price holding above the TL from highs at 118+. This was the TL that was broken last night in American session after all data releases and so a positive re-test could augur well for this trade idea, for a rise till the 50-61.80% Fibs of the fall from 117.75.

Entry: 115.70 | Target: 116.70 | Stop: 115.30

7Ybgn.jpg700×549 55.2 KB

7

An update on the H1 chart for this trade idea I executed in the Asian session today. For me, it’s a pip-lock trade, but could be a fantastic intraday trade for intraday traders. 50 pips already, as I write.

In my original post, I had mentioned about a potential positive re-test. And so we can see the spurt in H1 now.

Updated H1 chart snap here.

Updated H1_USDJPY.jpg700×267 29.1 KB

8





















9

I was busy at a local event yesterday so wasn’t able to spend time with my terminal and post my trades here.

Post the higher close in held positions in indices and UJ on Friday last week, my primary goal for Monday session this week to curb losses in case these positions extended deeper in the red.

So I had the following trades executed to hedge my open positions.

[ol]
[li]Buy USDJPY
[/li][li]Buy DAX30
[/li][li]Buy SP500
[/li][li]Sell XAUUSD
[/li][/ol]

Following are some brief notes on the basis of these executed trades. Only 1/2 long USDJPY position is still open going into the Asian session on January 10, 2016.

[B]Key Notes on these trades[/B]
[ul]
[li]DAX30 had a humongous bearish engulfing candle on H4 so the descending TL that contained its price from the 03rd Jan gap highs, became the re-test point. So this trade was to hedge + trade a possible rebound off that TL. Also German IP came surprised on the downside. However, the key here is the daily close below 5 DMA yesterday.
[/li][li]USDJPY was an attempt to see if bulls had the determination to make 117 as a floor for another re-test of region closer to 118. 2 trades done as hedge. As you can see in my Trade Summary, UJ is a hedge in my position list at the moment, I’ll be chalking out a plan about it today.
[/li][li]SP500 couldn’t carry it’s bullishness into the European session yesterday, plus got weighed down with oil going down, gold firming up, European EQ’s going down (except FTSE) and is hovering at the previous resistance turned support levels at 2272.
[/li][li]XAUUSD is showing signs of exhaustion at 1177-1180 levels. Broke back into it’s rising channel (sorry I don’t have the levels of channel with me right now) yesterday, but the drop in dollar eventually led it to re-test 1185. I’m still expecting it to break 1200 near term, but would wait for a retracement to buy. Last I checked, H4 candle reversal at 1185 looked interesting and could drive a bit of price action today.
[/li][/ul]

10

This pair is trapped in an ascending wedge and is continuing to show signs of exhaustion at current levels. It didn’t move up with as much gusto as dollar dropped from 117 levels.

It is possible that this pair may take a pause before any move higher. H1 lagging indicators are slowly starting to edge lower.

Here is a snap from the M15 chart. As I write this, I see selling emerging in this chart.

9cTgn.jpg700×423 38.8 KB

I have a trade executed with entry: 1186.20, T1: 1180 and T2: <Will monitor if it breaks below the wedge>

11

Maybe an audacious trade this, because of the bashing cable got for the last 48 hours or so.
But I see some interesting developments on the H1 chart, so I am entering this trade.

Here is the H1 chart. Pretty longish positive divergence on RSI and Stoch.

Entry: 1.2125 | Targets can be at the Fib levels of the drop from 1.2430

gyggn.jpg700×423 35.7 KB

12

Flat for the last 4 hours, not giving away much in either direction. Price is still inside the ascending wedge though.

Position still held, but further action would be taken based on which direction price breaks out.

13

Basis of the trade still intact on H1. A good 25 pip shot has come till now with the pair managing to claw back to 1.2150.
Headwinds from lingering Brexit aren’t out of the radar completely, so caution is warranted. Also to see how American session pans out for this pair.

With macro concerns on it’s head, purely technical reasoning may not always work for determining price movement, hence keeping stops tight on this trade.

14

Cable continues to hold steady on H1. Price managed to reach 1.2180, that was close to 23.6% Fib of the fall from 1.24xx. So from an intra-day perspective, turned out to be a decent trade idea.
However, to note that price has reached the bottom end of the Ichi cloud and so next couple of sessions important to monitor if selling in this pair returns.

I’m still holding this position expecting further gains, with next targets being 1.2230 and 1.2280/85, if 1.2180 is cleared convincingly.

15

A long trade based on tech indicators on H4 chart. Macro data in less than an hour can affect the trade though.

Entry: 140.85 Target: 142.10-50

tFpgn.jpg700×423 40 KB

16

Brief notes on all the trades and actions taken yesterday.

Was exhausting for me, as residing in Australia, trading during the American session can become challenging, especially when important events are scheduled during the session.
However, when loving what you do, I guess it becomes exciting too :slight_smile:

Yesterday was mixed for some of the calls I took:

[ol]
[li]Reduced risk by closing some in-loss index positions before Trump’s speech.
[/li][li]Stopped out on long GBPUSD and GBPJPY trades.
[/li][li]Few quick-fire intraday trades to capitalize on the volatility surrounding Trump’s speech.
[/li][li]Closed the hedge on USDJPY
[/li][li]MISTAKE --> Why did I buy XAUUSD at 1198? :o
[/li][/ol]

[ul]
[li]Early into the European session, my planned hedge on DAX didn’t happen, as I expected the price to rebound off 20 DMA, but it decided to cushion itself at daily S2. Ferocity of the rebound didn’t allow me to enter the hedge for the sake of hedging. Eventually it did reach the daily R2, where I expected it to be held for the day, allowing me to buy time and re-strategize. But nah, it didn’t pan out as expected. And so I had to close a couple of shorts in DAX, leaving 1 open.
[/li][li]The long trades in Pound against USD and JPY were panning out well, but I should have closed them on an intraday basis; cable got me 70-80 pips within 24 hours and “the dragon” was getting me 40 pips at one point of time yesterday. Though am pleased that the chart readings were right, just that my expectation of market sentiment off data releases from UK was incorrect. I must state here that my long GBPJPY trade was insurance against a potential fall in GBPUSD post data release, as my overall expectation from yesterday was USDJPY firming up into Trump’s speech. That ploy worked too with GBPJPY holding cable’s fall for quite a while. However, when 1.2085 broke, a decision had to be taken.
[/li][li]This plan worked well, so my timing and expectation of market behavior + price action worked here. Hurrah!!! (Trump’s speech started at 3 am AEST this morning; so thanks to caffeine for the hurrah too :59:)
[/li][li]As I had written in an update earlier, that I will chalk out a plan for the hedge in dollar yen. Yesterday was the day for it and from what I mentioned in previous point, the pair rose as I was expecting. Tech reasons were there too with a TL to be tested. So TL tested and then the holy smoke reversal. From my trade summary, it can be seen that post closure of hedge, another short position in this pair has been opened.
[/li][li]No excuses here. I am to be blamed. Caffeine had started wearing away (4 am in the morning), and I hit the buy button instead of sell.
[/li][/ul]

17

Ok time to stem the meteoric rise of this ‘tucked in a corner of the world’ index.

Haven’t traded this one for about 4 months, so just knew that it is rising. Opened H1 30 mins before pre-open and hmm…

KMpgn.jpg700×549 53.2 KB

[ol]
[li]Clear rejection above 5800.
[/li][li]Trapped in a triangle.
[/li][li]5791 - Multiple rejections here since y’day; this level is at 11.4% Fib of the rise from 5510-15 (5+ % in a month :o)
[/li][li] 2 trendlines for a potential re-test.
[/li][li]Tired of European indices :stuck_out_tongue:
[/li][/ol]

Entry: 5791
Targets: This index can give lot of good intraday targets. But I’ll be eyeing the 38% Fib levels at 5708. But should take a pause at 5740 before that.

18

Triangle trap play done during the cash session and closed my short position from this morning.
Will let price action out of the triangle now and then take a call if I wish to trade this index.

H1 chart.

shpgn.jpg700×549 51.6 KB

19

Closing my long position in XAUUSD at 1204. This is the 38% Fib of the drop from 1337, that started last year.
Considering that the rebound from lows near 1125 has come a fair bit, so taking money off the table, as profit taking can chip in at any moment from current levels till 1215.
So no point salivating for that final slow drag.

20

No specific chart interpretations for this trade.
Just taking an oversold dig on this pair and placing a pip-lock trade with entry at 114.07, targeting 115.

Held short positions continue, but in the wake of Fed speakers coming up later today, locking the gains on the short with a long position.