Jolu Warrior - My journey in numbers!

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
81

I jumped onto this pair’s longer TF charts, instantly after finishing the post on USDJPY, as the possibilities for USDJPY looked too compelling to not have any possibility out of XAUUSD.

So I looked up the D1 chart for some patterns.

[ul]
[li]Have drawn 2 SR lines, SR#1, one that the price had a shallow rebound off in Oct '16, and eventually piercing it with a humongous daily red candle in Nov '16.
[/li][li]Another SR line, SR#2 is at the level that was tested heavily in December '16 and has acted as support YTD.
[/li][li]The catch is price is back at SR#1 and has been testing it for the past few days.
[/li][li]Negative divergences in RSI, since the price carved out a double top at 1215-16 levels and dropped till 1180’s.
[/li][li]Current levels could provide another potential double top with a re-test of the ascending TL, which also would coincide with 1215-16, the last mini resistance turned support level.
[/li][li]But what raised my brow was a possible HnS, that could really come into play and make contain the price in a range between SR#1 and SR#2 :13:
[/li][/ul]

An interesting run-up to the March 14-15, the next Fed meeting. And let’s not forget that every meeting is live, with current rate hike futures positioning fairly high!!

Daily chart here.

D1_XAUUSD.jpg700×556 61.4 KB

82

No forex deals for week ending 17-Feb.

The only trade done was in WTI. So not posting charts for last week. Just the numbers.

[B]Gain (Pts):[/B] 1.20
[B]Holding Period (Hrs)[/B] 94.72

83

The last time when I had a real good look at the weekly chart of this pair, I had scribbled about clues that could indicate a decent upside in it’s price.
Since then, the weekly chart stats have held well, perhaps more so as Pound didn’t have a crash as such and Dollar kept getting boosted or move in a range, if not rocket higher.

I pulled up the weekly again this morning, and with some more price points noted, I think GBPJPY could be the pair to be in H1CY17. We could be in for a massive upside if my understanding of the price points and price action on weekly works out.

[ul]
[li]A massive weekly inverse HnS could be in the making. Firm lines in the chart are for the price action already confirmed. And the potential in dotted lines.
[/li][li]149.00 could be the first major resistance if the price is to shoot higher. Tested heavily in H1CY13, broken in H1CY16, re-tested in H2CY16 and carved a higher low on weekly post the last re-test.
[/li][li] In the drop from 190 odd levels to 125, RSI quadruple-bottomed. That’s a massive base in my opinion, as since the 4th bottom, weekly RSI has maintained an uptrend. If this uptrend is to continue, I think all major SR levels of the drop from 190 levels would come into play. RSI is back at same level that it broke down from, when price broke down from 163.
[/li][li]Hiccups to this idea could be from Article 50 news and weekly cloud resistance.
[/li][/ul]

W1_GBPJPY.jpg700×539 62.6 KB

84

Chipping in with a long position in this pair from 113.37 levels, based on observations on H4 chart.

Price seems to have carved out the inverted HnS I had mentioned in my previous post, and now presenting a consolidation at current levels. RSI failed to make a lower low on the dip to form the right shoulder.

More importantly, RSI bounce off the SR line that I had maintained on my chart and was kinda line in the sand as the price kept charting in the 300 point range since January. We can see in the chart that in the past 1 month, every bounce off this line on RSI got the price to rise by 130-200 pips.
And I think that presents a decent trade idea, with intra-day SL below the ascending TL or below the right shoulder and S/T SL below the head.

H4 chart here.

H4_USDJPY.jpg700×513 58.5 KB

85

DAX touched 12k today. H4 is showing signs of possible top for this week.
H4 indicators turning lower too. So selling into the strength today for a retracement trade.

86

This is another fundamental M/T trade that got triggered yesterday.
I think Aussie is at precarious levels from RBA’s perspective, especially after some of the fundamental notes that Governor Lowe spoke about in the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum on 22-Feb-2017.

Here is the link to the speech/article by the Governor --> Besties

While it is good to see that some recent data originating from Down Under has been very bright, like employment numbers/rate and wage price index, it’s impact doesn’t seem to be flowing into consumption. Instead, debt levels are rising.

To me, that’s a big issue, if such historically low rates do not boost domestic consumption and keep creating a debt bubble, which eventually doesn’t get serviced by a consistent growth in household income.

Decreasing population growth – Increasing household debt-to-income ratio – Decreasing household saving ratio – Increasing gap in house price growth between major cities

This leads me to think if 77-78 cents to USD is the alert point for the RBA vis-a-vis all these stats.

Some excerpts from Governor Lowe in the tagged link:

In aggregate, households are carrying more debt than they have before and, at the same time, they are experiencing slower growth in their nominal incomes than they have for some decades.

Our latest forecasts were prepared on the basis that growth in consumption was unlikely to run ahead of growth in household income over the next couple of years

Additionally, iron ore has been on a fantastic run since Q2CY2016. Add to that stabilization in crude prices from the supply management of OPEC.

So it is worth questioning, if Australia would be able to stretch itself too far on inflationary expectations from external factors, if consumption remains in limbo.

Hence, am taking positions in a short Aussie trade from 77 levels.




Australia_City_HGR.PNG653×522 42.5 KB

87

This trade has been closed for following reasons:

  1. Risk/margin management due to running losses in short XAUUSD positions.
  2. Not enough appetite for it to drop due to strength in yen against the dollar, rise in Euro or rise in Gold.

And with UJ back at a major H4 support level, it is likely that a rebound might keep equities afloat. hence, the exit.

88

Some more notes and takeaways came up from Governor Lowe’s testimony to the House of Reps, that was worth reading in order to gather more information, which could factor into my positions in AUDUSD and ASX200.

The key takeaways for me are –

In the broader housing market, the picture remains quite complicated. There is not a single story across the country.

Wage growth has been quite subdued…We anticipate the subdued outcomes to continue for a while yet

We do not expect the rate of inflation to fall further. Our judgement is that there are reasonable prospects for inflation to rise towards the middle of the target over time. The recent improvement in the global economy provides some extra assurance on this front.

But the current high level of debt, combined with low nominal income growth, is affecting the appetite of households to spend, and we are seeing some evidence of this in the consumption figures.

I had used the phrase “in limbo” in my last post on Aussie fundamentals. Governor Lowe seems to corroborate the fact that there has been clear evidences in slowdown in domestic consumption, while whatever uptick in inflation (still below target though) has been due to extra global assurance.

No wonder why retail sales bombed during the festive period around Christmas/NY last. Now RBA seems to be additionally (apart from China + global economy) at the mercy of Aussie household balance sheets.

Could provide good results for my positions, but I think I will now start looking into possibilities of aggressive short selling the ASX200.

Another perspective - Iron ore!

IO_D1.jpg700×525 49.3 KB

IO_W1.jpg700×525 43.5 KB

89

Not a good end for my short positions in XAUUSD as February came to an end yesterday. So losses registered there.
Been dabbling in intraday trades last week and this week with the overall theme of my positioning continuing to be same as last month - a stronger dollar.

Another drop that caught my positions napping was that of GBPJPY. So had to close some of the positions and regain some of the running losses through positive intraday deals.

90

Count of Symbol
GBPJPY 1
AUDUSD 1
ASX200 1
DAX30 1





91

From this post on Weekly Stats, I will be adding a small snippet in the beginning capturing a Snapshot of the totals in both, Pips (FX) and Pts (EQ + Comm). The analyses that I have been sharing for previous weeks this year would continue in another section Analysis

Snapshot

[ul]
[li]Pips: 984.50 | Success Rate: 92.86 | Average holding period: 109.16 hours.
[/li]> [li]Pts: (60.59) | Success Rate: 55.56 | Average holding period: 190.97 hours.
[/li]> [/ul]

Analysis






92

Attached is a link to a simple document, which compiles my trade data from the month of February 2017.

Monthly Stat Check | February 2017

Snapshot

[ul]
[li]Pips: 569.50 | Success Rate: 100% | Average: 81.36
[/li]> [li]Pts: 277.54 | Success Rate: 71.43% | Average: 19.82
[/li]> [/ul]

Tagging some images in this post.
Other images and some write-up is available in the document.




93

Snapshot

[ul]
[li]Pips: 190.10 | Success Rate: 100.00% | Average: 47.53
[/li]> [li]Pts: 254.14 | Success Rate: 100.00% | Average: 28.24
[/li]> [/ul]

Analysis

Count of Symbol.jpg700×433 11.9 KB




94

Snapshot:

[ul]
[li]Pips (FX): 115.8 | Average: 16.54 | Success Rate: 85.71%
[/li]> [li]Pts. (EQ + Comm.): 237.52 | Average: 9.5 | Success Rate: 96%
[/li]> [/ul]

Analysis:




Pts (EQ + Comm).jpg700×433 11.8 KB

Hold Period (Hrs) vs. Pts (EQ + Comm).jpg700×433 11.9 KB