Jumping on the badwagon?

No dead zone in Forex or doesn’t it move much until Japan opens?

Just a few questions :slight_smile:
Do you look for the trend on the 4hrs at all or just 15min?
I have a similar method where I use the 21EMA. If PA is above or below that I enter a trade accordingly.
So, do you look for the PA to be below the 50EMA on a higher TF and then look for retraces on the 15 or is it all done on the 15min?

If it goes above or below the EMA do you wait for the 1st retrace to enter and confirm it’s bouncing?

Because the EMAs move over time (averaged), does the PA actually hit the EMA line?

And lastly :)…would a SMA work as well?

I look at the trend on the 4 hour and the daily for sure to find major areas of support and resistance, and where PA is in relation to them.

That said, I trade the trend on the 15 min TF, and use the 4 hr as a guide to see how much upside or downside there could be.

I tend to watch the price when it is above / below the EMA and as it retraces towards it. I will usually set an order a few pips below/above the EMA, cause you are probably not fast enough to hit the buy/sell button in time for the optimum price. The way i have my screen set up is that i see see the past 4 days PA on the 15Min TF, so I can identify if price is trending or ranging and then trade accordingly. If you look, you can see that there are trends within range trading as well and then the 50 EMA rule applies to get in and out with 50-100 pips.

If its ranging then i would trade the range using fibs and pivots, and when trending anything off the 50 EMA.

Say price has been above the 50EMA for 4 days and it now moves down through it. Do you enter there as soon as the 1st candle has closed below the EMA or do you wait for the retrace and then the bounce to enter and/or re-enter?
Just looking at it I would say most of the time after it moves through the EMA, it retraces and bounces except for the one time it moves back through again (I guess this is where you get stopped out and enter the trade in the opposite direction).

How do you decide when it hits the EMA, what it’s about to do?
For example, in the attached, I went short at the circle as it was looking like a bounce. The it hovered around the EMA for a bit, then it moved through it and above the daily pivot, so I went long and bagged a good trade but the 1st one was a loser.
Laughable chart attached :slight_smile:



looking at your first chart, i would have bought the first bounce off the EMA, and the second… but as you can see the slope on the ema is leveling out by the third touch, this would be a risky trade. Of course you have to watch the PA, and alot of times you’ll know with in minutes or seconds that you made the wrong decision and can get out early. Knowing me, I probably would have traded it.

Now looking at the real chart, the circled area where price is consolidating, I would not have traded it, cause it could go either way there, and if i really felt like i should, i would trade in the direction it was going, so up and buy.

But looking at the big picture, PA was having a hard time breaking 155 so I would have been looking to buy in the 155 zone and then to short in the 158s. Though looking at the PA now, the 50 EMA still has a nice upslope to it, and PA is still 200 pips away from the last high (160.44), so I probably would be looking for a quick buy TP 50-100 pips off a retrace to the EMA.

The it hovered around the EMA for a bit, then it moved through it and above the daily pivot, so I went long and bagged a good trade but the 1st one was a loser.

Another reason not to trade there is that PA had only moved 100 pips or there abouts, and the average is 280-300 or so.

Doesn’t mean it always moves that distance in each direction does it?
It could have gone up 100 and down 2-3?
My problem I didn’t wait to see if there was any consolidation on the EMA, I just took the fist bear candle off the EMA, which I thought was a reversal!

No it won’t always move that many pips in one direction, but the average is 288 I believe.

But looking at where the resistance is 158.50 and support seems to be around 155.50. I try to get short as high as possible and would have waited, and took the chance of missing out on a trade if indeed it did turn at that point.

Patience is the key for this pair…

When you drill down to 5min for the entry, are you looking at the PA touching the 50EMA on that timeframe as well or just looking for the S&R lines? I presume this is 15min S&R and not 4 hr lines or other?

exactly, when i drill down to the 5 min TF, I will be looking to place an order off the 15min TF S&R levels

But…you can’t see the 15min EMA on the 5min TF, the 5min 50EMA will be a different line won’t it?

thats why you should have multiple charts open for the same pair, simply flip between them, as PA is getting close to a S&R then switch to the lower TF to place the order as close as you can.

My mind is already made up where i want my entry point to be, and if its a manual trade order then, the 5 Min lets me place it more precisely.

I have the 5, 15 and 1hr and 4 hr open. This gives you the big picture of where PA is a potentially where its going.

Just re-attached this chart with a question.
I’ve circled 2 places. The 2nd is what you talked about above with price consolidating and the EMA being flat. However, with the first circle, we get a red line bouncing off the EMA and the EMA line is angled downwards - would you have traded that one?


The first circle, the touch off the 50EMA… that is a hard call. Keep in mind that the PA has been ranging from 155.5ish to 160ish… that looks to be about 156.6 level so in my mind, that would give me between 50 and a 100 pips range if i were to short that… Now my trade management would have made it ok and probably been stopped out at B/E (+20 pips move SL to be). I tend to not trade when PA is with-in 100 pips of a support or resistance.

As I mentioned yesterday, I would be looking to buy in the 155-6 area based on PA, and again the touch on the 50 ema is less than a 100 pips off the last low… this tells me it most likely is going up.

Remember, the buy/sell off the 50ema is when price is clearly trending. Price has been ranging and when ranging you have to use support & resistance, pivots… and what ever else you want.

Now to confuse the issue, the consolidation area, the second circle, is a buy zone, for the reasons i listed for not to short. PA a often consolidates and then continues in the same direction.