Kashix's way to trader life

Trading Systems
1

Hello. I am Kashix from California, 24 years of age. I’ve done a half-assed job of studying forex for the last 6 months. I’ve been mentored by Eremarket, who was an amazing teacher. I’ve also been following ICT for some time now and finally finished watching all of his material. I find that staying up overnight is the hardest part about Forex. It’s a huge change in lifestyle so the rewards better be worth it. I come from a poker and chess background so Forex should be right up my alley. I’ve made roughly 200k playing poker and I have some money saved up so I don’t have to work. I will be tackling this full time until I’m successful. In this thread, I will log all my trades along with my analysis in hopes of helping me treat this more like a business. I’m going to use what I gathered from ICT’s teachings plus various other resources and apply them to these pairs: GU, EU, GJ, EJ, GA, EA, AU, NU, XU. (picked due to high ADR)

I don’t like to demo because it feels like a waste of time. I’d rather trade real money in smaller insignificant lots than demo. I’m sure there are opposing views to this, so let’s just say that I rack discipline.

My goal is to become a millionaire as fast as possible with my starting capital of 46K and a risk of ruin of 0%. My estimate is 2 years if I can follow a consistent profitable system and treat it like a business day in and day out. I am a believer when those who have made it say that Forex becomes almost boringly easy when you know what you’re looking looking for.

I will start out on demo period where I trade .10% over 30 pip SL, or $1.5/pip. If I’m successful over 1 months time, I will move my lots up to .5% over 30 pips. My goal is 30% a month using .5% trades, which equals 1,800 pips monthly, 450 pips weekly, and an average of 90 pips daily. I think over 9 pairs, I can squeeze out a couple good trades for 90 pips. And finally, if I really feel consistent about my trading, I’ll be willing to up my risk to a maximum of 2% per trade. As projected from today, April 17th, 2012, with a months worth of small betting, I will have roughly 6 months to start my real trading session before the end of the year, and if all goes well, I will be up to 170K. Post taxes and in roughly 8-9 months I will have $1Million. However, I’m not expecting to get that good that quick so I’m giving it 24 months as opposed to 15. My life will be over as I know it but hopefully when I get good enough I can maybe find something to do during the nighttime, or move across the world where people are awake during my waking hours.

GLGT

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[B]Pip Log
[/B]

Start Balance: 46K

2012

April
W3(16-20):

W4:
1.
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5.

May
W1:
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5.
W2:
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W3:
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W4:
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June
W1:
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5.
W2:
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W3:
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W4:
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August
W1:
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W2:
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W3:
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W4:
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September
W1:
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W3:
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October
W1:
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W2:
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November
W1:
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W2:
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W3:
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W4:
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December
W1:
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W2:
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W3:
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W4:
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End Balance:
2013

3

Interesting. I’ll keep my eye on this thread because I think your end goal is definitely achievable but I also think you could end up losing a serious amount of money if your psychology and emotions take over. But good luck.

PS: If you made 200k already, why stop on a winning formula?

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@mrchilled: In the US, you can no longer play poker online.

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Unbelievable, well thats a good reason to move to forex.

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Isn’t USA the land of the free??

PS just joking :smiley:

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Hi Kashix,

We actually come from a similar background (online poker) and studying/applying the same material from ICT. I am also planning to run with a similar account size starting June. The poker background has helped me build strong money management skills, discipline and always on the lookout to exploit every edge based on probabilities. I am personally targeting a much smaller monthly profit target % based on what I feel I can attain on a regular basis.

I wish you success and will be following your thread.

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Looking forward to this too. Hope you will put PREmarket analysis, and not just results :slight_smile: i was aiming for 8-10% monthly which turned against me this month. Do better! And if you will keep up with at least 20% monthly this will be something i have to look up to :stuck_out_tongue:

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@Yunny1: lol same thoughts…

@StephA: Yeah you’re right. Poker requires management, discipline, and a keen eye for exploiting edges, all of which you need in forex as well! That’s why I’m here I guess to see how well my poker skills transition. As for the monthly %, I know I’m aiming high, perhaps too high, but it’s one of my flaws. I always overstep my boundaries to know what I’m capable of. I think across 9 pairs with an ADR of nearly 1000 pips combined, I should be able to pick up 90 of it. If I up my risk to 1%, I only need a net profit of 45 pips per day. It seems do-able but we’ll see. Thank you for your wishes!

@PipJoker: Thanks for following. If you haven’t noticed I named my thread after yours. Haha hopefully we’ll both do better. There’s definitely a lot to post across 9 pairs so I don’t know if I’ll be able to do that. I’ll see once I get my schedule running. I’m still finding it extremely hard to stay up overnight. I may have to settle for LO. Then possibly move somewhere more fitting if I feel like I have a firm grasp on this stuff!

11

Really simple HTF analysis for what I’m going to be looking for next week. I’ll drill down to LTF and watch PA over Asan session to pinpoint better entries. Well here they are. I have an excel of notes with the trend, etc, but I won’t post that until I see some consistency with my trading.

GU:
Using fib swing projections we hit the 200 level from the lower swing high and the 127 level from the higher swing high. We may see a retrace next week because this type of momentum can’t continue forever. Price does look geared for higher prices though from all timeframes so I’m looking for a long. April monthly candle will be closing in 1 week too so we’ll get more info!

1335079812-clip-63kb.jpg700×562 43.4 KB

EU:
EU looks much weaker than GU. If SMT is still working, then EU is the weaker pair by far. I’m not even sure if it’ll continue upwards on the monthly as a 3 candle fractal high as already formed. I’m looking for shorts but that will depend on PA of course as usual.

1335079791-clip-67kb.jpg700×562 46 KB

GJ:
Thing with Gx pairs and Ex pairs is they all move the same. If the GBP is going up, they will in all pairs but that doesn’t mean they’ll have identical charts. If you look at GU, the last swing high was completely breached, annihilated. GJ, not so much. Will it break it? I think so, but the question is when? And how do we profit from the situation in front of us? We’re in a good zone to look for shorts, OTE and higher. It has a higher probability of going lower than going higher right now. Unless it breaks the high with momentum, I think shorts are safe. Basically short the top of this range and long the bottom of it as scalps.

1335079743-clip-63kb.jpg700×562 45.3 KB

EJ:
Same thing as GJ but much weaker. See I don’t think this will break the last swing high. I probably won’t even trade this pair but I will use it for clues as to where the other euro pairs are going. If I were to long a xJ it’d be GJ I think unless it was at the top of its range and this one wasn’t. And shorts I’d probably short this one. Just a theory though. I won’t know until I have a good trading sample to see if I get consistency.

1335079689-clip-57kb.jpg700×562 41.3 KB

GA:
This pair looks like it’s reaching for the heavens. Everytime I look at it it looks like it’s going higher. This year so far it’s been going up and up aside from that little hump down you see on this daily chart. Although we are approaching an ITH and a LTH soon after, I see this pair going higher and higher, so long until a reversal forms.

1335079648-clip-60kb.jpg700×562 44 KB

(5 images per post)

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EA:
Euro and AUD both look weak, but which is weaker? I think both are on a HTF downtrend. Well, euro is kind of consolidating sideways but it doesn’t look too promising. I think the euro will overtake aud though. On the weekly chart EA has been going up all year and came down which rejected strongly upwards from the feb 2012 highs as support. So given market structure, it looks like higher prices are to come. I take back the short in the picture above the next swing high. I think I’ll use this pair to gauge the other euro pairs or use the other euro pairs to find an entry in this pair. Levels to monitor, the yearly high and obviously the last swing low. If that were to break I’m shorting all day.

1335079600-clip-61kb.jpg700×562 42.6 KB

AU:
This pair has been trending down for a few weeks and made a bounce last week, then proceeded to close lower slightly this week. I’m seeing a coil type pattern form, expecting price to break one way. If it breaks lower there may be a bounce up given the monthly support area. If it goes higher, I’d like to see myself take a short for lower prices as we are still in the sell program on the higher time frame.

1335082232-clip-64kb.jpg700×562 46.2 KB

NU:
This pair has been ranging for awhile now. If you look on the weekly there’s a clean clean clean level of weekly candle bodies. If that continues, the obvious trades would be to long below it (the wicks) and short above the level. I think a traders trinity would be perfect for this. And until it breaks one way, this is a good plan to trade this pair.

1335079453-clip-65kb.jpg700×562 44.7 KB

XU:
Gold… I want to short this pair. It’s been on a steady sell program monthly from the beginning of this year. I’m thinking it’ll break below 1500 eventually. This pair has an ADR of 200 pips. So if you’re swing trading this in the right direction, you’re gonna be one happy pipper. Obviously sell the top of the range and buy the bottom.

1335079556-clip-67kb.jpg700×562 44.9 KB

This is just an overview. I’ll have more in depth stuff for myself. I won’t prepost it because I don’t want any of you following me to your doom. The quality of the pics suck so here are the clip2net links for a higher resolution view.

Image 1335079453-clip-65kb.png NU
Image 1335082232-clip-64kb.png AU
Image 1335079556-clip-67kb.png XU
Image 1335079600-clip-61kb.png EA
Image 1335079648-clip-60kb.png GA
Image 1335079689-clip-57kb.png EJ
Image 1335079743-clip-63kb.png GJ
Image 1335079791-clip-67kb.png EU
Image 1335079812-clip-63kb.png GU

13

I can already tell from your mindset and how your thinking you will be able to be successful. You clearly know what your doing when it comes to money management being a poker player. Your goals sound realistic and you clearly have a plan. I look forward to seeing how it goes!

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@wmorris3825: I wish I clearly knew what I was doing, but thank you, lol.

Alright, I’m going to post a bunch of gibberish, to get my forex thoughts out in writing so I have brain space for other things.

Analogy of Green and Red Soldiers on the War Front
-There are various camps on the battlefield, Red camps in the North, Green camps in the South.
-These campsites and fortresses are the S/R lines, a monthly line would probably be a fortress of some sort, while a daily a campsite.
-When the Green army is sent out to the war front and they’re winning a battle, you can see it on your charts!
-After a large battle, not many soldiers are left, but they still continue to march. This leaves a lot of ground for the Red to take by killing off only 1 squadron.

Analogy of Conveyor Belts
-On the USDX conveyor belt, when USD drops 1000 points. GU rises 1000, while EU only rises 700.
-There are days where the USDX doesn’t move and prices still move. However, given this theoretical scenario, they should have moved an equal relative amount due to the USDX belt downshift in speed because they are on the other end of the belt (U)
-From this alone you know that EG, EURO/GBP should be on a downtrend.
-With this piece of information, you can predict when to long the euro and short the gbp by looking for a strong s/r on EG that will create a bounce or reversal
-All of forex is a series of conveyor belts, some of which move faster, some of which move slower. You want to hop belts and ride the fast ones.

Gibberish, I know : ) When I study things I come up with my own version that’s not as boring.

Concept of Real Pip Value (RPV)

When I say I want to make 90 pips a day, that means 90 pips based on .5% risk. If I take half of my position out at +30 pips and then make another 60 with the remaining .25% risk, that would equate to 60 Real Pips. (1/230 + 1/290)

ICT teaches that you can make money even if you’re wrong by taking risk off the table. I’m going to have to do a lot of this in the beginning because I’ll probably have a high % of wrong direction bias’s. So in order to not lose money, I’ll basically be sacrificing major profit for protection which is important also.

15

Yeah, kashix i’ve noticed you named after mine :slight_smile: thats why it caught my eye! Anyway, looking at your market preview for a week it seems there are a lot to monitor. Looking forward to results. I might expand my two pairs into four, looking at fiber, cable, NZD/USD and AUD/USD. Btw sick profits from poker, wonder why you’re leaving :slight_smile: if i ever made that much money, i would have considered. But one way or other nice to have on board in this crazy money see…

16

@PipJoker: Majors are good but I noticed using similar pairs can help you have a better feel for price relative to all other pairs. I think EJ/GJ is a good pair to watch. It has a high ADR and you can use SMT with it too (or at least I think you can). You also have info on the euro and pound from GU/EU. I’ve considered moving to another part of the world to play poker but forex it is for now.

K I traded the Sunday gap EU took it long and closed for maybe 5 pips as it missed my TP an reversed hard. I ended up shorting because I noticed EJ and EA closed their respective gaps, while EU, hit a different bottom which is considered a gap close I suppose. So I took that short all the way down through R2.

Today, right now I"m currently short EU and GU, thinking it’s a judas up. More importantly GU is going up into Friday’s high. EU is going up into yesterday’s asian range. There’s a high probability that we’ll see a retrace into the asian high where I’ll take partial profit and let the rest ride on break even. I’m also short EJ, long GA, and short EA.

I want to eventually post all my trades, where I entered and reasons.

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Keep it going… :59:

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With that equity, move to Europe and trade. I bought an apartment in Odessa and trade from there. Much more freedom. Russian forex is crazy. Maybe you can play poker too)))

life’s too short for boring cars and cheap wine.