KingLobster's Tulip Bulb 9/24/13

Welcome to my trading journal. I hope to be able to keep a nice record of my live trading on this journal. I have started with a very small account ($750) to trade with. I have been practicing trading and doing a little live trading for more than a year now. Being that I am just a recent college graduate, I do not have tons of extra money to play around with, but $750 is manageable to me.

Though it is pretty obvious that I should be trading in very small amounts, I simply cannot get excited about trading for pennies. I just go for it. With this current bank roll, I trade 2 micro lots (20,000 worth of currency) for each trade. If I am profitable and increase my bankroll, I will increase the trade size.

My favorite pairs to trade are NZD/USD and AUD/USD.

I started with this live account on 9/19. I started with a few quick trades but didn’t get much of anywhere because I didn’t end up letting them run like I should have. [B]Therefore, I started out down $25 when I entered a trade on Sunday night at 7:30pm EST. This was a trade to short NZD/USD at 0.83646. I just closed that trade at 10:44am EST at 0.82703 for a pickup of 94.6 pips! Sweet! Since that was for two mini lots, the profit was $188.60. Not bad at all.[/B]

I call my journal tulip bulb because I am only interested in shorting currency pairs. I find that this is psychologically easier for me to handle and therefore I think it will help me to be more profitable. The tulip bulb name comes from the tulip bulb craze that overtook Holland and Denmark in the Middle Ages and is widely regarding as the first recorded asset bubble in history. When that bubble popped, poverty consumed the region for ages, but when bubbles pop in Forex, profits can be had.

I hope that you will enjoy following this journal and my hunt for good shorts to get into.

At the moment, I have no positions open. My account has $912.60 in it, and I am waiting for NZD/USD to find another good place for me to get back in on the short and ride it down some more. It is already up 13 pips from where I sold it at, but I expect that it will ride up a good bit more. I don’t want to get in on the long side of it because this goes against my tulip bulb strategy and because the daily chart shows a move towards a correction towards the 0.81000 area in my view. I am hoping to hop back in for a short again with this pair a little north of 0.83000, and I will update the journal when I place the trade.

[B]UPDATE (9/24/2013 2:21pm):[/B]

I just jumped back in on a short opportunity that I see for a short term play on the 15 min. chart. I usually don’t advocate for these types of plays, but I wanted to see if I would be able to pick up some pips while I wait for the pair to get to a price target that I would really like to see. On the 15 min. chart, I am liking what I am seeing at this time for a short. I went ahead and did short just moments ago at 0.82829. This is up about 13 pips from where I covered earlier, but now the pair looks like it is ready to move down a little perhaps before climbing again.

I am just going to try to pick up 13 pips here (what is with that number today??) with a stop loss of 15 pips. I went for 3 mini lots since the limits and stops are so tight. I am going to see if I can capitalize on a short term shift. Currently at 2:26pm EST the trade is has just broken positive.

[B]UPDATE (9/24/2013 3:57pm):[/B]

Cool! Looks like things worked out to the downside again. I always love to see that! I closed out the trade just a few pips short of my original target, but that was just because I figured I should take what was already given to me instead of waiting for those last few pips to come in. [B]I closed it out at 0.82733 for a profit of $28.80[/B]. I am going to keep an eye on NZD/USD but also take a peek around the rest of the market and see if there are any good opportunities. As always, I will keep posting if I make a trade.

[B]UPDATE (9/24/2013 4:13pm):[/B]

That didn’t take long. It looks like CAD/JPY is setting up nicely to fall on the 30 min chart. Again, I prefer to trade the daily chart, but if there is an opportunity to capitalize on something that I see on a smaller time frame, then I may take the opportunity to do just that. Once more, I shorted for 3 mini lots as I am capping my limit and stop order to 25 pips. Max loss or gain on this one is $75. I feel that CAD/JPY has set up for a nice fall perhaps as early as later tonight. I don’t want to close this one out early if I can avoid it. I want to play it out and see where it goes. [B]Short 30,000 CAD/JPY at 0.95851 and it looks like it is already trading positive! [/B]

[B]UPDATE (9/24/2013 8:11pm):[/B]

Well it didn’t pan out exactly as I had planned, at least it didn’t transform into anything yet. Perhaps it would have ended up heading my way in the long run, but something about the chart got me nervous. I don’t like those shorter term trades so much, particular on a pair like that, so perhaps I should not have gotten into it in the first place. It certainly looked better 4 hours ago though. [B]However, I was happy to be able to cover my short at 8:09pm EST for a very small gain of just $3.95 at 95.838[/B]. At least we are talking about a gain and not a loss here.

It looks like the NZD/USD trade would have been the better trade to stay in, but you never know. I am once again going to take a step back and take a look at all of the charts. I have no open trades and my account sits at $926.95. I am primarily going to be looking for a longer term short now and will reduce the amount that I play on it to the standard 2 mini lots. Lets see what I can find.

[B]UPDATE (9/24/2013 8:39pm):[/B]

The last update of the day. I just got short the GBP/JPY pair at 157.909 for 2 mini lots. It looks like a good short on the daily charts which is my preferred time frame. I am looking to try to grab 100+ pips on this trade. My limit is set at 156.500 which would be a 140 pip pickup, but of course I could always close the trade early or adjust things as the charts change. I have also put in a 100 pip stop loss order in so that the maximum loss on this trade would be $200. Obviously, I am very much hoping that won’t happen.

This will be a longer term trade than some of the day trades that I have put in place today. Lets see how I do! Will update in a new post tomorrow.

[B]UPDATE (9/25/2013 9:50am):[/B]

Believe me or not, I am happy to say I got out of the GBP/JPY trade for only a very minimal loss. I woke up at 6:20am and checked how the news had impacted the currency pair. Unfortunately for me, the stronger than expected number for GBP helped to propel the pair much higher in just about an hour’s time. I went from a 40+ pip gainer to one that was at a slight loss. I decided to bail out on the trade because the number was so much stronger than expected that I had a feeling that the pair was going to continue to climb higher and higher. As it turns out, that feeling was right.

[B]I got out for a loss of just $9.74 and then put myself into another trade. Short on the CAD/CHF at 0.88297.[/B] Unfortunately, that one is working against me right now as well. I am currently $28 in the hole on that trade but I am holding on for the moment. You can’t win them all.

[B]UPDATE (9/25/2013 10:10am)[/B]

Uh oh! I already made a critical mistake, not thinking about fundamentals. I will admit that this is not my strong suit, but it is something that you obviously have to give some consideration. Today, the news coming out on currencies other than the greenback has been stronger than expected, and the greenback has been weaker than expected. As such, it appears that market sentiment is in favor of the risk on trades. Since I am only about shorting, I have to either choose a USD currency pair to short, or as I preferred to do, short a pair like AUD/NZD.

[B]I got out of the CAD/CHF trade at a loss of $50.05 and moved in to short AUD/NZD[/B]. It is down currently too and it is just looking like a bad day of trading for me, but I am going to stick around with this one to the bitter end and see what happens.

That AUD/NZD downtrend is a beautiful thing, isn’t it? :slight_smile: Nice work here…keep it up and good luck!

Good luck! The AUDUSD is one of my favourite pairs to trade. :slight_smile:

You go king lobster !!!

Hey everyone, and thanks for the replies! Sorry I have not been keeping the journal up to date as well as I had been. I wanted to provide something that people could follow literally step by step, but that takes a lot of work to maintain it appears, particularly if you are caught in a losing trade and grumpy! lol. Gotta love that short AUD/NZD play though. That was cool!

[B]UPDATE (9/27/2013 6:07pm):[/B] I have moved on to a new trade and have been in short on the NZD/USD for a little more than a day now. The pesky little thing has certainly been fighting against me. On the daily chart it looks like a great setup to take a tumble, but it just keeps fighting and fighting it. Worse for me is the fact that I am short at 0.8245. That is 35 pips or so lower than where it closed for the day. I didn’t close out the position or anything because I don’t want to realize the loss on a trade that I honestly believe is going to fall. Holding it over the weekend is more than a little uncomfortable when I think about it though because of all of the news that we are setup for early next week with the government shutdown battle.

At the moment I am 35 pips in the red on this one, but my account is still net positive, so I can’t complain too much. I am holding my short, hoping to see NZD/USD hit 0.81000. If it does, then I stand to gain just under $300 on the trade and that would be a nice win. Also, I am working hard with my day job to try to build up capital to put into my account to really get it supercharged. Thanks again for reading everyone and I will try to keep it updated with each and every trade I make from now on.

UPDATE (9/29/2013 5:05pm): Looks like NZD/USD may be ready to trade in my favor. Lets see.