Babypips fellow traders:
Let me introduce myself.
I am a trader / researcher in financial markets for well more than 20 years now. Over past several years I have been blogging about the major pairs by posting my weekly homework. Lately I am expanding to post my charts and outlook on shorter timeframes.
I believe in structured, statistics driven trading over complex analysis without validation from historical data.
I hope my take on the majors will be of use to many here.
Lawrence Chan
(Reposted from my site)
AUD/USD 4 Hour Chart Below
Recap
As expected Aussie cannot even tag Y-0 and sold off back down to Y-1. Struggled around Y-1 in 2nd half of the week. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.
Outlook
Pressed down by 2 factors – Strength in US dollar due to backdrop of war looming and potential exhaustion in gold rally.
Key level remains at 0.9 right above B-0. If Aussie successfully pops higher above B-0 early next week, a run back up to B+1 / Y-0 should not be a problem.
As long as the 0.9 / B-0 zone is not breached, more downside for Aussie likely. B-2 very likely to be tagged this week.
For weekly comments on other majors they can be found at my Weekly Outlook at daytradingbias.com
Hi Lawrence Chan looking forward on checking out what you come out with.
I specialize in chart structure / pattern behaviour and market breadth analysis.
With the privilege of working on both sides of the industry before, my perspective should be quite interesting for many. =)
Sell your yellow Porsche yet?
Which one? XD
Just kidding.
Growing old and fast cars do not mix.
(Repost from my site)
As I mentioned last time, Ninja is bullish for a run higher.
Here is an update to the setup.
Green arrow marks the perfect retest of the quarterly STOPD level from 1st quarter high. This happens often when previous test was a false breakout.
As of today price has traded above red down trend line triggering a weekly level breakout to the upside.
Light green line is a copy of the green line projection to realign the projected time window to get to the target.
Light green target zone is the projected price target for this move.
Red zone should not be challenged again if this move higher is for real.
My original blog post on the Ninja setup can be found here,
WTF Chart of the Day: Ninja Gunning For 102 And Above | DaytradingBias.com
(repost from my site)
EUR/USD Outlook For The Week
Recap
Euro drifted lower and consolidated around Y-1. As euro dropped lower, European officials came out b.s. all the way to keep the currency stable again. Closed the week at Y-1 and above midpoint.
Outlook
If a bottom is found, euro should pop higher to B+1 and that B-0 will act as support on pullback. That points to a run back up to B+2.
As long as B-0 to B+1 acting as resistance, more down side is expected.
For weekly comments on other majors, you can find them at Weekly Outlook | DaytradingBias.com
(reposted from my site WTF Chart of the Day: Why Gold Dropped Back Down? | DaytradingBias.com)
Told everyone that gold cannot go higher back in end of August until we see a retest of 1320 and below.
Here we are, gold below 1320.
Left side horizontal lines highlight the 1st quarter range in blue and range expansion at 200% in orange and 300% in pink.
Right side horizontal lines highlight the 2013 year range in pale green.
Yellow zone is such a strong resistance on first test, price has to react to it and fall back down to support, first.
Why?
200% 1st quarter expansion level
50% of current year range
original down channel bottom going back all the way to year 2012
Why below 1320 as potential support?
original spike low back in April
25% mark of year range
200% expansion of the original down channel
Chart reading can be simple if you learn to read it property.
(repost from my site)
GBP/USD Outlook
Recap
As expected, a strong swing emerged after all those spikey moves. Clearing Y+2 as mentioned last week is not something to counter. Closed the week near week high and above Y+3.
Outlook
Very interested in the price reaction in Y+4 to 1.60 area. The strong move higher was the consequence of a big fight down there below Y+1 where the bears lost. That was back then. Now Cable has put in so many pockets and voids below, it will have a very hard time going much higher.
Consolidation around B+1 with down side bias later in the week to retest B-0 / Y+2
For weekly comments on other majors, you can find them at Weekly Outlook | DaytradingBias.com
Last time Dow changed its components was Sep 24, 2012.
More from here - WTF Chart of the Day: Dow Component Changes On Sep 20, 2013 | DaytradingBias.com
(repost from my site)
AUD/USD Outlook
Recap
Gapped higher at the start of the week and consolidated around Y+1 since. Fed meeting sent gold way higher and Aussie jumped higher in sync. Closed the week below midpoint and above Y+1.
Outlook
Aussie closed weak but not weak enough to signal a selloff. Aussie has to move out of the zone Y+1 to Y+2 before we can tell which direction is in control. Breakout play.
For weekly comments on other majors, you can find them at Weekly Outlook | DaytradingBias.com
(repost from my site)
USD/CAD Outlook
Recap
Loonie managed to get to Y+1 by drifting slowing. It was immediately rejected. Closed the week at midpoint and above Y-0.
Outlook
It has weaknesses written all over. The slow up channel once broken to the downside points to at least a test of Y-0 and B-2 should be tagged too. This drop does not imply a selloff to any lower price level though because Y-1 was rejected decisively.
Rare scenario is that a quick breakout above B+1 will result in a run to B+3 and B+4 in almost no time due to the parabolic pattern in place.
For weekly comments on other majors and US indices, you can find them at Weekly Outlook | DaytradingBias.com
Be prepared for extremely high volatility environment,
WTF Chart of the Day: US Government Shutdown Play In Forex And Indices | DaytradingBias.com
(repost from my site)
USD/JPY Outlook
Recap
Gapped below Y-1 to open the week turned Y-0 into resistance. Y-0 capped the attempt to go higher gave us a retest of week low at Y-2. Ninja flushed below Y-2 and opened the door to Y-3. Y-3 tagged at the end. Closed the week below Y-2 and midpoint.
Outlook
A down channel / falling wedge in place. Breaking above B-0 will give us B+1 quickly. As long as B-0 is not breached, looking for more downside in the coming week.
(repost from my site)
EUR/USD Outlook
Recap
Another one played out as expected. Bounce from Y-0 was weak and as expected could not even get close to Y+1. Sold off down to near Y-1 and bounced. Closed the week below midpoint and Y-0.
Outlook
Inside week closing below midpoints. For a down trend to start, we need a strong selloff from B-0 to B+1 area that breaks B-1 and B-2 in 1 go. That will open the door to much lower price levels.
Until then, consolidation continues with both B-1 and B+1 in play.
For weekly comments on other majors and US stock market indices, you can find them at Weekly Outlook | DaytradingBias.com
(repost from my site)
GBP/USD Outlook
Recap
Got the bottom I was talking about and cable took off to tag Y+2 near the expected upside target for the move. Another easy one for the week. Closed the week above Y+1 and midpoint.
Outlook
Higher timeframes gave us this bounce with a squeeze. Outside week closing above Y+1 points to at least a retest of B+1. Price action around B+1 will tell us if this is going to be a consolidation week, or a steep pullback to B-0 is in the making.
For weekly comments on other majors and US stock market indices, you can find them at Weekly Outlook | DaytradingBias.com
(repost from my site)
AUD/USD Outlook
Recap
Wild consolidation indeed. Aussie spiked up and down around Y+1 as expected and ended the week lower above Y-0 and near week low.
Outlook
Price above Y+1 is now decisively rejected. As long as B-0 / Y+1 is acting as resistance, B-2 is in play.
For weekly comments on other majors and US stock market indices, you can find them at Weekly Outlook | DaytradingBias.com
(repost from my site)
USD/CAD Outlook
Recap
Consolidation week around Y+1. 50% previous week range. Closed the week near week low and below Y+1.
Outlook
Consolidation ended in a weak tone points to potential flush down to B-2 / Y-0 area. Holding that will give this a platform to go higher to retest B+1.
For weekly comments on other majors and US stock market indices, you can find them at Weekly Outlook | DaytradingBias.com
