Bout to go meet the adviser now. Hopefully he will like the concepts, I believe them to be valuable if you have enough money to apply them, like a firm would lol. Right now I trade AU NU and EU for the next week or two, I will be slowly adding back up to the original 10 after I master these 3. Each pair has a certain statistical range that needs to be determined by studying/back testing. Soon I will get back into GU.
Hey guys. I’m here with an update before I trade. I am very upset about last nights trades. I found an error in my spreadsheet. My euro short was a good signal. My AU and NU sheets contained an error which caused me to get a faulty signal. Definitely pisses me off to have to start a week in the red. Tonight I am triple checking my sheets to make sure I have no errors. Stupid Microsoft excel 2000!
Update
Placed my trades early. The movement in the avg value of pips between today and yesterday was huge. Since I haven’t seen these results yet, technically it is unsafe to make a trading decision off of them. However, I went long on all three pairs
AU Long
EU Long
NU Long
I’m not holding these three trades against me if i lose them, normally i wouldn’t take them. If they all win tomorrow, then I will be taking these statistical trades again in the future, tonight is a trial run.
Okay it wasn’t worth the risk lol. But know i know exactly how to trade such a big gap in avgs. Euro is good to go long. AU and NU are definitely going to short.
Okay okay. I am back for the update. I was right about the E/U last night, totally went against the system on AU an NU so its a no brainer I was wrong. As for tonight, I decided to through GN into the mix because I have been studying it quite a bit today. I feel pretty confident about these trades tonight. They are as follows:
GN Short
EU Short
NU Long
AU most likely long (didn’t take AU)
I was running a formula e/(1/a) for the formula I have been trading off of. As a result I had several good runs (two weeks), however It started to fall apart. Originally when I built system 14 my original volume eq was supposed to be e*(1/a)… however I switched it for whatever reason. I have thus changed the formula to e*((1/a+b+c+d/4))which I believe thus far to be the best option giving me the tightest range of data yet. In the future I can change out 1 or two variables to get the money figures I trade, however where I am not I feel pretty good about considering the time I have been putting in. On a side note, I am holding my GN trades, I put in another sell. I closed my E/U trade, I am holding my NU trade as well… So my trades are:
GN SELL
NU BUY
I tested EN, which gave me a sell, however I do not have the margin to trade it 
I’m back. Normally I post at around midnight, but tonight was special. I found a really interesting relationship in the slope vs time for each hour’s avg amount of $ it takes to move a pip. This is how i will be trading for now on, based off this really useful relationship. Will get more into detail later about it, For now, My trade is:
GN Long @ 2.00463
I fu—d up. Was supposed to short! Not a good start to the week and I am already sleep deprived… Oh well, I am out of the long and am looking for a good opportunity to short if possible
Learning the new system xD. Yesterday’s sell wasn’t great, it longed barely, but primarily sold most of the day. However, Tonight/today looks great for the sell based off system stats.
GN Sell = my trade today
I am loving my slope theory. Seems to be really legit. Tonight’s trade:
NU short
my entry: .82065
I expect heavy sell today, Slopes of each hour pip avg’s was extremely high yesterday, Should be a great sell for the day! Looking like more than 100 pips 
I’m back to trading again guys. I have been studying very hard. Since I have so much information, sometimes I overlook some possibilities. Anyhow, I dropped the slope theory, It seems like follow the money is how I will be trading again. System 14 for the win. Tonight I am only looking at two pairs since they are quite easy to trace the money. Tonight’s trades will be … drumroll!
NU SHORT waiting til American to enter, appears It might have significant drawdown
AU SHORT @ .91011
Update
Nu would have been a good trade to enter at open, however I expect a lot of retracement on the day. Last night I said drawdown, however, according to the numbers it could have been either. I’m only up 11 pips or so in AU right now, but the trade does seem safe. Looks like a shooting star pattern on the NU and AU so a sell looked obvious regardless of the data. I only trade data though, not how the chart looks. I intend on posting some pictures of the information when I trade now. if not at night, in the mornings. Will be back later with an update
I’m thrilled! I called both NU and AU correctly. Both sold yesterday which is sweet, Today they will sell as well according to the data. I’m also taking a stab at EU. I will not trade EU, nor have I studied it enough to make a trading decision. However, I believe EU will long based off the data even with as little “studying” as I have put into it.
My Trades:
AU SHORT: .91032
NU SHORT: .82906
Will be back for an update after American open. Happy trading!
Trades not looking great but this could just be drawdown. I’m leaning towards a decent sized move during asian session. My EU long would have been great had I taken it. Down 29 in NU and down 46 in AU. Will see what happens.
NU sold, AU longed, and EU Longed. Two for three is not bad. We are in for a surprise now. I really am onto something major. Will get into it tomorrow. Tonight is going to be a great night to trade. Best setups are AU Sell and NU sell. EU will sell as well and should be very beautiful as well. GN will long.
I will explain tomorrow in the Am what my conceptualization has awarded me. 4 winning trades for tomorrow =
NU SHORT @ .82779
AU SHORT
EU SHORT
GN LONG
Been studying like crazy today, I hope I can finish what I am working on before next week. Called AU correctly and NU correctly yesterday, was incorrect on GN and EU.
Todays trades:
AU LONG at open
NU LONG at open
It’s safe to say I need the rest of the week off. I’m trading terribly lately, and I need to build a more reliable trading model, possibly take into account more information. I haven’t figured that out yet. I don’t know what to expect of NU or AU today anymore, I am assuming sell based on the charts… Looks like today’s trades are doomed. When I come back next week, I am going to add tp’s as well as stops to my trades for a more well rounded system
Reviewed. Reviewed some more. I have a better understanding now how trade cancellation rates. Here’s what I do for you guys
My trading process is as follows:
1)Took (1/((high + low + open + close)/4) x movement in pips to calculate actual amount of volume it took to move the market that movement.
2)I took the volume given by data provider (oanda for me) divided by 2.
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an example is easiest for this part… Lets say eu longed for the 1 minute i am doing these calculations on… based off that I know that there was more buy volume then sell volume. So I took the volume calculated in step one… divide it by 2.
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Took the oanda volume figure and added half of the volume from step one to get the actual buy volume for the minute in my previous example from step 3 assuming eu longed that minute.
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Took half the oanda volume figure and subtracted half the volume from step one to get the actual sell volume for the minute in my example.
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Since I knew the market longed during this minute… I thus took the real sell volume and divided it by the real buy volume… this gives me the rate in which the volume is canceling itself out. Ussually its in the 80-90% range…
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I do steps 1-6 for every minute of the entire day and divide by the total number of movement periods in the day… This gives me the average volume cancellation rate for the entire day.
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I do this for both buy and sell minutes for the day thus finding the average cancellation out for sells when the market is selling, and buys for when the market is buying.
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forgot to add that I multiply the volume by 1 million to get the actual dollars…
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i determine the amount of money that was non canceled out buy, and non canceled out sell for the entire day.
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i determine the amount of money that was canceled out buy and also sell for the entire day.
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I also figure out the money invested in the wicks. Higher extremes and lower extremes for price rejection/ possible future price direction?
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I make an informed trading decision on how the day next day is going to go based off these calculations. I have several other figures in my sheet as well, but currently I only trade off these values.
Problem I have been having in the past week was i wasn’t taking into account all these figures, I was only trading off whether the market canceled out less buy then it did sell and visa versa. I also added the missing minutes of the day to the larger side which impacts the cancellation averages… Now I do not add the missing minutes, and use all the figures mentioned above to make my “day direction call.”
starting tonight I will see how It works out. Be back in like 15 mins with the new trades and I will post the rates excel calculates for me so you guys can see why I long or short something.
Tonight for whatever reason I am interest in NJ for no particular reason.
Stats for NJ from 12/12/13 1 minute chart
Average Money cancellation rate: 91.01970%
Average Buy Cancellation Rate:
90.23248%
Average Sell Cancellation Rate:
90.9168%
Difference Between Buy Cancellation rate and Sell Cancellation rate :
0.6843317439572670%
Difference Between Buy Cancellation rate and Avg Cancellation rate for the day:
0.78722%
Buy Canceled money for the Day:
¥17,219,093,525.97
Sell Cancelled Money for the Day:
¥17,911,724,918.79
Buy Non Cancelled Money for the Day:
¥2,167,585,432.63
Sell Non Cancelled Money for the Day:
¥1,809,725,879.80
Higher Extreme (Upper candle wick) Money for the Day:
¥13,915,897,460.00
Lower Extreme (Lower candle wick) Money for the Day:
¥15,091,017,840.00
Total Money Invested on 12/12/13:
¥9,058,160,392,000.00, or $87,943,304,776.7
Note all figures are in Japanese Yen since that is the base currency in this pair.
My Trade:
LONG NJ
Reason for LONG
1)Buy Cancellation rate was less than sell cancellation rate on 12/12/13 by less than ~.8-.9% (from testing this is a good indication that the rate is the predictor of the next day)
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There was more buy uncancelled money then sell uncancelled money.
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Higher extreme money was less than Lower Extreme money. Less Price rejection during 12/12/13 for the market to go future long.
For tonight I am only going to post the Information for NJ and am only taking an NJ trade since I have to get up early and do some stuff before work.
That is my analysis. Be back tomorrow with an update on the position. my price was for NJ was .85391… not a good one but it works since I have to go to sleep now. Happy trading
update I updated/corrected the statistics. Last night I had forgotten I had used a 4 pair sheet instead of a 3 decimal pair sheet* Started next week I will use abbreviations for the rates I calculated so I can post more pair stats.
This post was deleted, I fixed my previous post. Holding the position through Sunday.
Originally posted this post a few hours ago, I solved the issue I was having. Down around 22 pips, once again, holding the position through Sunday. Be back on Sunday night with an update and my new position/positions for Monday. Have a great weekend!
Wrote a new eq based off minimal buy and sell volume that possibly predicts price! Looks really sweet so far on the days I have looked at. If it is true, I expect price in NJ to hit 85.535 on Sunday! Lets see what happens