I like where you are going with the strength and weakness idea. Two issues I see with that. First I have no idea how to identify the big players withing a certain time frame based off volume. All I have been able to measure is buy volume sell volume and net volume within the time frame I am measuring. Secondly, it would be sweet to figure out what the big players are doing etc, but I don’t see how you can determine the next days signal based off what big players did yesterday even if I could determine how they traded if that makes sense.
This model that I am trading has an advantage. I don’t need to know strength or weakness, I don’t have to know what news is coming out, I don’t even care what trading sentiment is like or whatever. All I care about is how yesterday happened in terms of money. Most importantly how the wicks compared to the bodies (candles). In the years of testing I have done, the most valuable lesson I have learned is you can’t determine future price based off traditional indicators, support or resistance, news or anything of that nature to extreme accuracy. I’m not extremely accurate yet, but I do believe how I view the market has a statistically higher chance that over the long run that I will have higher accuracy and a greater chance at sustaining profitability in the future, with the added benefit that I learn over time and get better and better at interpreting my calcs. This model has huge potential to become more profitable over time as I learn how to read it better. Unlike traditional signals that can not be improved unless something is tweaked or whatever. I have no need to tweak anything to get better results. It comes down to a little discretion.
Back to the candle wicks and bodies. When people look at charts most people only look at wicks near highs and lows on whatever time frame they are looking at. However, Wicks occur almost on every single hour candle, 5 min candle, day candle etc. From my research, just looking at what goes on between open to close is completely useless and gives no future price inclination. Instead, by measuring all the wicks on each sample I measure (1 hr data) and analyzing where price has already gone but retreated from, gives us future price inclination depending on the ratio of the extremes to the body (determined by summing up all the ratios for the day). That’s the meat of the system. What happens between open to close is much less relevant to what happens in the extremes compared to open to close.
Ok onto some updates.
GN was a good trade but my stop was 10 pips to high. So I lost 50 pips on my first GN trade.
AU is holding her own at +7.5 pips currently
I did get up in time to catch another trade in GN because I knew my signal was still good and strong…
My second GN trade I entered at 1.98355 with a stop at 1.978.
Currently I am up 48.2 pips in GN
Looks like all the other pairs are doing exactly what I determined they would do so thats a plus. With the two trades I am in now technically I am still in profit for the day by a few pips. Will be back later with another update.
Back the Meihua… I would love to read the article you are going to post when you do post it. And I’m not worried about anything you have to post about (you won’t be stepping on any of my toes), you are welcome to use my research as well. I will send you the spreadsheet when you pm me your email. As far as trying to hide things etc lol, I don’t intend on leaving anything out or whatnot. I would like for you to see everything and really take a look at what it means and how it works etc. I am sure you will have plenty of questions. If their are any errors, definitely let me know. I will have some questions as well. Will talk to you soon hopefully and when I come up with some more questions I will run them by you as well.
Closed out of EU with -1 pip loss. After some more review I do not believe the signal is trustworthy enough to place a trade off of. So for now I am just going to trade GN. Happy trading. Be back with an update.
Little bit upset the market threw a curveball at me. Should have longed yesterday :(. Still in the short trade, even though its a really tricky day, I do expect GN, EN, and EU to short tomorrow…
Holding me GN trade, currently only down -37.9 pips. Going to keep the same stop.
Be back with an update.
Sometimes it’s necessary to take breaks to gain a new perspective. I took some time away from fx for a few reasons. Mainly because I still don’t have real money in my account yet for me to really trade how I desire to trade it. Anyhow, A few weeks ago I came up with a brilliant idea on how I intend on analyzing the data I get to make better trading decisions. Will get into that later, However I figured I update my page with a trade I am currently in.
Been in a GN long for about 13 trading days now…
First entry was 1.97229 (currently up 338 pips)
Second entry was 2.0062 (breakeven)
I used my system for the original entry but haven’t used it since. Now I’m just using common sense I suppose to manage the trade. I have a target of at least 2.03 before I considered exiting. Worst case Scenario I would get out at break even.
Will be back later tonight. Happy trading all. Stay in the game, that’s the only way to play… Even if it takes several breaks
I appreciate you my dude. The A team is back for sure. I’ve gotten really patient with my trading decisions, I hold for longer term now… I don’t just try to take 100 pips anymore. I take hundreds, and more successfully at that.
Yesterday I finally closed out of my GN trades I had held for nearly a month. My top trade I took upwards of 450 pips, and my bottom trade I took upwards of 100. Price Got within 10 pips of my target before GN started retracing. I didn’t get until this morning. I do not expect much of a retracement, however, I believe GN has the potential to touch 2.0 again before bouncing back to the 2.03 level.
Currently I’m only up about 20 pips with my Stop set at 2.0305.
Will do my best to get back on and post later tonight. Happy trading everyone.
Got stopped out on my trade yesterday… lost about 140 pips, however I am still up upwards of 400 for the month which is nice. Didn’t trade system anyhow.
I have a brilliant idea on how to better interpret the data I am getting from my excell document but need some help figuring out how to achieve my goal…
Basically I get three output equations from my system that are necessary to interpret for future direction. I believe in the past I was creating the wrong type of rules to trade them. Based off the calculations, what I believe I calculated was three coordinates… x y and z. These coordinates for lack of a better term more or less measure market sentiment. My goal is to plot these coordinates on an xyz graph and compare market movement to the location of the point plotted. Since it is an xyz graph i think there are 8 quadrants? Depending on where the point jumps to each night (which quadrant) from the quadrant it came from the previous night will give me the insight i need to find the right rules to trade this system.
A friend of mine told me about some software that’s free called Blender. I downloaded it and am trying to figure out where to start. I’m not rendering anything or creating graphics per say, all I’m trying to do is plot points and compare their locations to each other paired with market movement and direction. Anyone have any idea where to start? Or could they recommend free software I could do this with that is easier to use? Or could anyone recommend a blender article I could start at that would relate to my goal?
I think there may be a simpler low-tech solution dude. I don’t know if your x, y and z carry the same weight in the overall value but if instead of going 3D you could plot the points indivdually on a grid and then draw lines through the points to create a triangle, you can then compare the shape/properties of the resulting triangle on your best trades against the resulting triangles of your worst trades.
If there is an obvious pattern, similarities and differences between the triangles of the best and worst trades then the system works so you can then take a borderline trade and compare that triangle to the triangles of the best trades and see what you are working with.
Have some Q’s about your 13 day investments, [I]note the word investments and not trades Mr Buffett[/I] and also your sabbatical but i’ll save it for the next time.
Whats up guys Been busy and not posting like I should be… But I am back!
Happy to see you back forexunlimited and win, we will definitely have to talk my dude.
So at first I was thinking It would be necessary to plot xyz, but for now I’m just sticking to XY. I’m not certain yet I need to plot the z coordinate and will be holding off on it for a lil while even though I do watch what z says. Anyhow after some much needed research this past weekend I feel quite pleased with the results. My initial theory about which quadrant the coordinates fall in and how that compares to the previous day does indeed have some very interesting results. Actually I am very well pleased with what I have found. The patterns are simple, elegant, easy to read and so far it appears they are non pair discriminate. Very exciting news indeed. This week I shall be forward testing this theory and am already putting it into practice. Fridays trade was not placed on my new findings, however Friday’s trade did yield a nice return in GN.
Friday I longed GN and took 110 pips profit which was very nice indeed
Onto today trade/trades:
GN Short (Friday’s xy was located in the IV quadrant, Sunday was II quadrant, so short is expected)
EJ Short (Firday = III, Sunday = II, so short is expected)
Granted I didn’t enter at the best prices, I’m more or less trying to enter around open… even though my entries are a lil early.
GN Entered short @ 2.0336 SL @ 2.0446
EJ entered short @ 149.296 SL @ 150.296
I do not believe it to be necessary to have a 100 pip stop on EJ, however since this is the real first day of forward testing my xy coordinate theory, I believe 100 pips is plenty fair to give EJ a chance.
Anyhow, I will definitely be back tomorrow to post and update, good or bad. So stay tuned to find out the results/findings. Happy trading to all
Unfortunately my GN trade got stopped out (Which is bs by the way, the market technically never hit my price. That’s oanda for ya though). It’s debatable it will close short today. That being said, the z coordinate possibly would have warned of this instance. However, Ej is looking strong, currently I’m up +70 pips and rising. If all goes well I will be able to hold my EJ short through tomorrow but I will not know until tonight.
So far my theory seems pretty legit considering day one of forward testing. I definitely would like to post a picture of the what the stats look like for all to see. Will be back later with an update. Happy trading!
Felt I needed to step away yesterday from the market, but felt the need to come back today. Didn’t have time to collect more data as I had wanted (will be able to do that tomorrow). However, I have updated the sheet, and fixed the errors (miscalls yesterday).
Here is what I have thus far (as well as tomorrows expected direction for these 4 pairs)
GN Short @ 2.03333 SL @ 2.044
EJ Long @ 147.286 SL @ 146.50
Will be back to post an update in the morning good or bad. Can’t wait to get some more data compiled as well, would love to see what a few more weeks back of this quadrant map I am creating looks like. Happy trading
Forgot to post the 8th’s results… Took 120 pips in EJ yesterday, lost 110 in GN and took 10 pips in the EU short I took.
Depending on how well I do by the end of the month, I plan on creating yet another FXbook to share and track my results afresh. Current trades are ranging right now. Inevitably waiting on the NZD news I imagine.
Feeling very confident on my positions and will be happy to post another update later as well as the information I collect.
Current trades:
EJ - 4.8 pips
GN + 3.8 pips
NU + 13.9 pips
Looking good. Plenty of room to breathe. Be back later. Happy trading
and also your sabbatical but i’ll save it for the next time.
