Well yesterday’s
CAD/JPY long TP
EUR/JPY short SL
USD/CHFshort SL
today
USD/CAD short SL
USD/CHF long -9 pips so far
GBP/CHF short SL
So far system is down 6.4% and I have absolutely no hop for it.
This constant losing streak is just too much.
At this point, even if the system had 3 perfect days, netting 18% and putting propooko 10% in the green, I simply can’t imagine myself ever trusting real money to it.
Not when you can go on a 2 week loseing streak or hit 14 SLs in a row.
This seems to verify what Bazooko has found, money management is a prereq but not itself sufficient.
Sad thing too, since the system seemed so promising.
I still have the low maintenance long term momentum system I can track, but it is looking like my goal of finding a forex system that works this summer is a failure.
Good thing the stock market is turning around, at least that is something in which I know I can make money in, (I spent the last 2 weeks moving money into dirt cheap small cap growth companies and have now had 5 straight days of good returns, including 3.5% today alone. The market has definetly hit the bottom and now look forward to the coming late year rally).
Sorry I miss y’all last night! I think this cable modem needs a new line to the house. I seem to lose my internet when it gets too hot outside. So much for the dish going out in bad weather.
So the last 2 days have pretty much been a wash. Although I am still down it is less that 5% of my opening balance. After almost 2 months with a major losing streak I think that is pretty good. I will give this experiment one more month and then I will change the rules. Maybe open up the s/l or trade with the trend. I real life I don’t think anyone would trade on a coin flip but I think we have a good starting point. I tend to agree with adam on this mm is important but not enough. I think that if we had a system that could win just 60% of the time we would make some good money, espically if we went 1.5-1 account.
So onto tonight trades. we are selling again at 1.3549 with a s/l of 1.3574 and t/p’s of 1.3536, 1.3524 and 1.3512
Why not use technicals to determine a trend, one that is not oversold or overbought, and hop in for a short term profit.
So here is what I am thinking.
To have a large margin but still use MM one needs small SL. But to make money one also needs to have TP at least 1.5X SL.
So buy useing a 1 hour chart, one can use a SL of 25, which is large enough to survive minute chop, but small enough to allow 4:1 margin.
So here is the system.
1 hour chart
Use Awsome Oscillator to catch shifts in trends. Meaning green turns to red, or vica versa.
To prevent fake outs by AO, verify that RSI is above or below 50 and that stochastic is moving in right direction without being overbought or oversold.
SL is 25, and TP, well I will test 2 sytems for reward/risk ratio, 1.5-1 and 2-1.
The number of trades/day will depend on how many valid entries there are. I will check at least once/day.
1 more thing, I will not be useing a trailing stop loss on this.
As I write this, there are no valid trades. Will upate later tonight.
Sorry I missed the past few days out there! A little storm killed my internet. So I will just wrap up last week and give the totals.
account w/l(week) win % w/l(total) win % balance
.5-1 5-3 62% 31-17 65% 1993.98
1-1 3-5 38% 21-17 44% 1817.90
1.5-1 2-6 25% 17-31 35% 1844.17
Well that sums up the past week. Here are tonights trades We are selling at 1.3670 with a s/l of 1.3695 and the t/p’s are 1.3657, 1.3645 and 1.3633
Good News everyone, our losing streak is over. Or at least I hope all trades were winners last night, however they didn’t close until this afternoon so there was no morning trade.
So onto tonights trades we had a buy flip. So we bought at 1.3635 the s/l is at 1.3615 and the t/p’s are 1.3648, 1.3660 and 1.3672
So I have had a few lazy days around here lately. I was sick last week and didn’t feel much like moving. Got bite by a spider and it knocked me out for a few days.
So I will keep it short for tonight. All 3 accounts went 3-2 last week and they are all down less than 1%. Not bad concedreing that we had a pretty bad losing streak. Last nights trades are still open so there will be no trade tonight.
Last night and this morning was not kind to us. All three accounts lost on both trades. I think this will be the last month of this experiment. This will be 3 solid months of this experiment. I think I have some good information to share with everybody.
So onto tonight we had a buy signal. We are buying at 1.3648 with a s/l of 1.3623 and the t/p’s are 1.3661, 1.3673 and 1.36685.
Last nights trades were still open this morning so I didnt make any new trades. This afternoon they colsed with all of them winning. That puts us at 2-2 on the week. Tonight we had another buy so we are buying at 1.3672 with a s/l of 1.3647 the t/p’s are 1.3685, 1.3697 and 1.3709
Last week was pretty good to us. The .5-1 went 4-2 and the other 2 went 3-3 the balance is now .5-1=1983.23, 1-1=1831.15 and 1.5-1=1940.89.
This is the last month of this experiment. Since the winning % is pretty bad I think I might try another 3 months where I only trade with the trend and maybe use a trailing stop. Give me some input and tell me if ya’ll are intrested in it.
For tonight we are going against the trend and selling at 1.3773 with a s/l of 1.3798 and t/p’s of 1.3760, 1.3748 and 1.3736.
Adamglas, I love this post. I’ve only been in forex for about 2 weeks in practice accounts, and I had the same idea as your method #2 of putting a smaller sl than a pl. But I abandoned it quickly because I figured that the oscillation would cause it to hit the sl more often that the pl to really make a profit.
But reading how you went through this is very interesting!! I saw on your recent post that you were going to reduce the sl and tp ratio, which is what I was going to suggest! But try restricting it even further than 1.5:1. I would go down as far as 1.25:1. Perhaps make a s/l at 15 pips and pl at 20. By tightening the band, it might make it easier for oscillations to hit the profit mark before turning back down and hitting the stop loss.
Also, it may provide some good information to look back into the market data and find how often you would have made a profit if the ratio was lower. And even more interesting and key, what sl/pl ratio would have been the most profitable over time? Most profitable per currency? And perhaps you could use a technical tool to find out the most profitable ratio given the current volatilty of a trading pair, and attach that to your formula?
Another thing to look for. Find out if your best profits or worst losses occured during or around a release of fundamental information. Did a new GDP or employment report get released? And did the volitility that might have been created help or hurt you?
I would also block obvious losers and roll random a 2nd time if you hit a blocked match. For example, if the interest rate just unexpectedly dropped in the U.S., I would block USD/xxx in any long position. Or if global warming puts England underwater, I would block GBP/xxx in any long position.
I think you may be onto something with this method, it just needs to be fine tuned by a few more factors.
Thanks for the input Brian. I have been doing an account at .5-1 and that believe it or not is doing the best, lol. As for the rest of your ideas I think that if you are using mt4 software they will figure out everything you are asking. I just dont know how to do it. You do raise a good point on lowering the s/l and p/l (do you mean t/p? take profit). However I have a 25pip s/l and a 13 pip, 25 pip and 37 pip t/p. I think that if I went for a 15 pip s/l and 20 t/p your results would be pretty close to what they are now. It seems like if you open up your s/l and t/p then you can ride out a down turn and get a profit. I have been trying an account with a 100 pip s/l. Sometimes I have to wait 2 or 3 days to ride out a 60 to 70 pip down turn but most of the time I end up in the profit because I am riding the long term trend.
I forgot to tell you, I make all my trades at the same time. 6:00 gmt and 13:00 gmt there is no news flashes then. I did this so that we would not get any noise from the news.
O.K. onto tonight! Last night the trades all went against us. So this mourning I had a buy signal and 2 of 3 were kind to us the 1.5-1 is still open up 10 right now but we lost $0.75 on the roll over. Since the trade is still open I am not trading tonight. I thought about it but I got a sell flip and that would put me in a hedge position and I am not a fan of that.
So I took I night off. I hope you don’t hate me for it. So I made a buy this morning and all 3 were winners. Tonight we got a sell signal so we sold at 1.3893 with a s/l at 1.3918 the t/p’s are at 1.3881, 1.3868 and 1.3856.
Well last nights buys went down and this mornings sell went up so you guessed it we lost both ways. The eur/usd looks like it is in the “A” cycle of the elliot wave on the day chart and on the 15 min chart it has been sidways for 2 days now. This just comfirms my hunch, don’t trade sideway markets, unless you want a .5-1 r/r.
So for tonigt we are truely fliping a coin since the market is sideways. The coin said to buy so we bought at 1.3882 with a s/l of 1.3857 and a t/p of 1.3895, 1.3907 and 1.3919
Last week was not a good week for the coin. .5-1 went 3-3 the other 2 went 2-4. I hate to say it but the loonie duck was doing alot better than George. So everything was a lose this week. Only 2 more weeks left in this experiment. The amazing part about it all is that even though all 3 accounts are down right now we can still pull out a profit if the gods of the coin work with us. I have discovered that their are more things to consider in this experiment than I had orginally thought of. I will keep these thoughts to myself for now or at least the next 2 weeks. But as stupid as this experiment sounds I know that I have learned a great deal from it and I hope everyone else following this thread has learned something as well. If nothing else use a candian coin.
O.K. enough of the tease onto tonights trades. George came up. I would have used the crazy duck but I lost the coin. So anyway we are buying at 1.3874 the s/l are 1.3849 and the t/p’s are 1.3887, 1.3899 and 1.3911
Well last night was not a good one. The .5-1 trade was a winner but the other 2 were losers. The trades were still open this morning so there was no AM trade.
So tonight we had another buy signal. So we bought at 1.3865 with a s/l of 1.3840 and the t/p’s are 1.3878, 1.3890 and 1.3902.
Are you always flipping the coin with the same side facing up?
Would seem to me if you flip the coin enough times, slowly you would wear down the metal on one side, and thus skew the odds of 50/50.
Decent thread being following most of it, interesting if it merely came down to just MM. One thing it does show is MM is an important factor.
OK Kangi the humor on this post on left to me and only me. Yes it does seem that the same thing keeps coming up but I promise you I have an American Quarter. I was also using the Candian Loonie (what ever that is?) But the Loonie flew the coop. I have also tryed some kind of British coin. I think that the Loonie made off with the Brits! The funny part is the Loonie had the best winning %.
So onto tonight last night was a total lose and this morning all trades were a total lose. This is the begging of a bad week. So tonight we are trying another buy at 1.3972 the s/l is at 1.3947 the t/p’s are set at 1.3985, 1.3997 and 1.4009.
