Let do an experiment part two

Beginner Questions
61

Sorry Guys! I have missed a few days. But it wasn’t my fault. The stupid cable modem went out. Monday it was too hot and yestrerday it was raining. So for all those people that say the dish goes out when ever it rains, theres your proof that the dish is better than cable.

Adam that last post, was it a cry for help or a prayer? Just stick to your money manaement and the rest will work itself out. Remember the stock market says that an 8% return per year is good so if you can only get 10% a year then your still better off than the stocks.

As for our trades Sunday went against us. All three were losers. Since I have fallen behind on the trades due to no fault of my own I have decided to make a trade in the mournig and evening provided I can still get on line then. The AM trade for today was to sell at 1.3770 the s/l is at 1.3795 and the t/p’s are 1.3757, 1.3745 and 1.3733.

O.K. I have to get back to work so I hope to see ya later tonight. If I dont then I will give out the number of the cable company and let everyone call them and tell them how much they suck.

62

Bazooko, yesterday was just venting my frustration.

I will continue the system for at least 3.5 weeks and hopefully by then the trades will be back to 50% wins and the profits will be back.

On the 8% stock market, that may apply to large caps, but I am a small cap man myself.

Over the last 50 years small caps have returned 11% annually, and my personal goal, using Motely Fool Hidden Gems newsletter, (They find some truely fantastic companies to invest in) is 15% annually, which I think can be done if you limit yourself to 10 titans of tomorrow.

Now the thing about Forex is that you are trading very often, meanign your profits are treated as earned income, (though I heard that there is a way to have 60% of your profits taxed at long term rate of 15%).

Another thing is the stock market is a tried and true method.

You buy a small basket of good companies,(which is where Hidden Gems comes in, their analysis of management quality is something you just can’t find on Morningstar or Yahoo) wait 30 years and you are pretty much guranteed to be much richer.

Forex is more involved. Stocks you can check 1/month, Forex you check 1/day, unless you are trading on weekly charts.

Thus in order to be worth it, meaning the extra time and effort involved, I need to make a premium to the stock market.

Personally if I can make 20% annually in Forex compared to 15% in stock market than I am content.

But stocks don’t accrue a tax bill until you sell, meaning you could earn 15% for 10 years and not pay a penny as long as you don’t sell.

Forex you pay taxes every year, so in order to earn 20% I have to, conservativly, earn 40%/year in Forex.

This means an average of 2.84%/month return.

Thus in order for my hopes and dreams to survive system 2 will need to be at +4.3% by the end of August.

Now the good news is it is already above that.

But that is only because system 2 experienced a ferociously positive 2.5 week swing that left it 16% ahead.

With 14 losses in a row over the last 5 days, it is possible that system 2 will continue losing till the end of august, at which point, I will either have a winning Forex sytem to continue during college,(I have time only for 1) or I will have to sideline Forex until next summer.

Thus today’s trades will be very important, to see whether yesterday’s single 5 pip win was truely a turning point.

So far 2 of today’s trades are positive and 1 negative.

Of course things can turn in a hurry and I would really need 2 TP to give a winning day and break the terrible streak of 5 losing days in a row.

Here’s hoping for declines the dollar and the yen.

63

Hey my internet is working tonight! This AM trade was not good to us. 3 more losses. I think I have to find that duck again. So tonight we had another eagle so we are selling at 1.3798 with a s/l of 1.3823 the t/p’s are 1.3785, 1.3773 and 1.3761.

Lets hope we turn this around!

64

Oanda is having technical issues, so no update tonight

Also, the blog seems on the fritz, I have posted days 19 and 20 but 18 still shows up as the latest. May have to abandon that blog and just focus on posting here.

More tomorrow

65

Ok, some notes first:

  1. Blog is not working, can’t post anything new that actually shows up on the front page, so I have ended those updates as they are a waste of time, and no one was reading them.

  2. System 1, 4, 3 are out, I just have too much on my plate right now to follow them, besides Bazooko is already running something similar to 1, Cowabunga is a proven system that is very similar to 3, and I will continue system 2, with in depth coverage, and off too the side will be 2.A which had its first 150 pip TP last night.

now to the systems.

  1. Yesterday was another bad day, AUD/USD long
    CAD/JPY short
    CHF/JPY short

The first 2 stopped out and the last one stopped out for +5 pips.

System 2 is now 1 bad day away from break even, up 2.76%

system 2.A had the same problems as 2, but CHF/JPY had 150 TP, so I have bumped the TP value to 175.

This system is down 1.5%

More tonight on today’s trades.

66

system 2 has experienced what I believed to be impossible, 8 straight losing days, with 3 stop outs today, which officially means system 2 is now down .17%.

I simply can’t explain how this is possible, I have not changed any rules since day 1, yet every trade moves against me.

I will continue to test this system until September, but it is looking like money management alone may not be the key.

What a shame that would be.

Good night all, and good luck.

67

Well today was a funny day. Last nights trades were all winners, but the AM trades on the .5-1 account I set the s/l for 37 instead of 13 and we won, on the 1.5-1 account for some reason I didn’t set a t/p or s/l so right now I am up 71 pips I think I will just put a s/l at +37 and wait.

So for tonights trades we are buying at 1.3667 with a s/l of 1.3642 and our t/p’s are at 1.3680, 1.3692 and 1.3702.

68

Time for the weekly reviews. I think we did pretty good even though we had a bad start thanks to my inter net.

account w/l (week) w/l total balance
.5-1 3-2 19-10 2024
1-1 3-2 16-13 1915.07
.15-1 2-3 18-11 1950.34

We are doing better over the past few weeks but still not in the profit yet hopefully we will see some profits this week.

Onto tonights trades! Well tonight George came up so we are buying. And once again we learned a vary good lesson. So far I think we are learning that 5% risk is a good amount to trade with. We also learned why not to trade when we are drunk and tonight we learned to look over your order when you place your order. Yep you probably guessed what I did. Instead of buying eur/usd I bought cad/jpy. Don’t ask why, it just happened. O.k. get off my back. So I think that if this were a real account we would have to stick with the trade and that is what we are doing so we are buying at 112.21 with a s/l of 111.96 the t/p’s are set at 111.34, 111.46 and 111.58.

Lets hope this doesnt mess with up too much!

69

sorry for not updating on friday, or sunday, am on vacation and couldn’t get online.

Firday trades: USD/CAD short, CHF/JPY long and short GBP/USD

GBP/USD stopped out right away, CHF/JPY on Sunday, USd/CAD short TP so Friday’s trades are a draw.

Sunday wasn’t able to make trades, today’s are: long Cad/JPY, long USD/CHF and short EUR/JPY.

I won’t be able to update later because I am about to get on a plane for a long flight.

More tomorrow.

70

Hello one and all, hope everyone had a good day of trading. Well last night the trades went 1-2 the .5 -1 was a winner. So this A.M. was open so I made another trade it was a buy and all 3 accounts lost.

So onto tonight we had a sell signal at 1.3615 the s/l is set at 1.3640 the t/p’s are 1.3602, 1.3590 and 1.3578.

See Ya later

71

How ya doing one and all? Last nights trades were all winners, but on the AM trades were all losers. So we kinda broke even or did we?

Onto tonights trades. The head came up so we are buying at 1.3526 with the s/l at 1.3501 and thet/p’s are 1.3539, 1.3551 and 1.3563.

72

ok, so because I missed Sunday, I made 2 sets of 3 trades today.

Here is how it breaks down.

Monday’s trades:

CAD/JPY long-24.9 pips
USD/CHF long -24.5 pips
EUR/JPY short +50.0 pips

Tuesday’s trades, morning

NZD/USD short 50.8 pips
GBP/JPY long -24.5 pips
USD/JPY short 50.0 pips

Afternoon Trades

USD/CAD long +26 pips, still open SL +5
GBP/JPY long -25.0 pips,
GBP/USD short +11.6 pips, still open, sl +5

So system 2, had 8 consecutive days of losses, followed by 2 days of break evens, and then 2 2-1 days, though the last 2 wins may only be 10 pips and not overcome the 25 pip loss.

So after 25 days, the propooko system is up 2.4% minimum, (1 hour chart shows strong trends that may result in 2 TPs) after 75 trades in which the system went 32-43, 42.7% winning trades.

I must say, its good to see some winning trades again, and I hope to see the % winning trades improve.

Thing is, I realize now that 50% is not ever going to be the long term % wins, since 50 pips profit is less likely than 25 pip loss.

However, assuming its 2 times harder to TP than SL, and due to reward/risk ratio of 2:1, I need to win 37% of the trades in order to overcome the spread and make money in the long term.

Now I am useing a manual trailing stop which should help to lock in profits, even if they are small, thus preventing SLs, so I am hoping that my system can bring in at least 40% in the statistical long term.

If so, then money management will indeed be an ATM and this will be a fool proof system.

Of course whether or not this system can make enough to be worth doing is another matter entirely.

My minimum is 40% gross annuall returns, which comes to 20% post tax returns, better than any stock portfolio.

To accomplish this over 312 trading days requires .108% daily returns, and by Monday, September 3, I will have 42 days of trades, requiring 4.64% profit by then.

I dare not predict whether or not Propooko can hit that target.

A single 3-0 day means 6% Profit, so even if if the system is down 10% with 3 days to go, it could still nail it with 9 straight TPs.

Of course it would be preferential to be up double digits and not have to worry about such last minute drama, but with Forex drama is built in and all you can do is manage your money, place your SL and TP and make the trades and hope that your system’s king fu is strong:)

Good Night, and good luck to all

73

Well, good news was last night USD/CAD long and GBP/USD short both TPed.

This put Propooko at +6%.

But today saw these trades:

CAD/JPY long
EUR/USD short
USD/CHF short

All 3 stopped out for -75 pips for the day.

With 6 trades left before the end of 1 month I am hoping for at least 50% wins, which would increase the profit to 6%, slightly better than the monthly average required for the goal of 40% gross ROI.

74

Hey adam you have some good info going on here. Can you give us a quick refresher on what the system is I forgot which one it was.

As for the quarter flip last nights trades were all losers and the AM trades were all winners. As for tonight we had a sell signal and we sold at 1.3410 with a s/l at 1.3425 and tp’s of 1.3397, 1.3385 and 1.3373

Until tomorrow!

75

Propooko system is:

3 random trades/day, based on random integer generator deciding which pairs to trade, and also whether to buy or sell.

SL is 25, TP 50

Each trade risks 1% of account

Today’s trades

EUR/CHF short: TP +50 pips
GBP/USD long: SL -24 pips
AUD/USD short: SL -24 pips

Total pip profit: 2

Hopefully tomorrow can see a winning day, meaning 1 or 2 wins instead of 1. Would be nice to finish the month up more than 3%.

76

Last nights trades the .5-1 won the other 2 loss and the AM trades were all loseres.

Tonight we are selling at 1.3415 the s/l is set at 1.3440 the t/p’s are 1.3402, 1.3390 and 1.3378.

That’s it for tonight the kid wants the computer back.

77

Friday’s trades:

GBP/CHF long -24 pips
EUR/GBP long +5.2 pips
AUD/JPY long -25 pips

Sunday’s trades:

EUR/JPY short
USD/CAD long
AUD/USD long

All 3 stopped out

Propooko is down 1.6% after 29 days

78

Fridays trading was a wash the night trades were winners and the AM trades were losers. So here are the weekly results
account w/l(week) w/l(total) win % balance
.5-1 6-4 25-14 64% $1999.98
1-1 4-6 17-22 43% $1865.90
1.5-1 4-6 15-22 38% $1923.17

This is the results after 6 weeks. I wonder what it would look like after a year. Even though we went through a 11 in row losing streak I think that we are doing pretty good.

Onto tonights trades we are buying at 1.3498 with a s/l of 1.3473 and a t/p of 1.3511, 1.3523 and 1.3535.

79

Last night was extreamly flat. It traded less then 30 pips over night. Which I find amazing condiereing that the Eur session is half over by the time I get up. So as a result there was no AM trade. But during the afternoon the trades did close all 3 were losers. I hope this is not another losing streak.

For tonight trades we are buying at 1.3474 the s/l is at 1.3449 and the t/p’s are1.3487, 1.3499 and 1.3511

80

well a losing streak is what we have,

AUD/USD long
AUD/JPY long

Both stop outs

and EUR/USD short is down 3 pips right now.

This system is now down 3.6%.

I will continue to test this, but it is starting to look like money management alone is not enough.