Daily analysis on FOREX&COMEX(GOLD/CRUDEOIL). Here we can discuss the trading-related updates and signals. One of the best places to learn.
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XAUUSD H1
Enough a week the market price for gold moves horizontally that only tests on the same resistance and support areas every time a movement occurs. Moreover, this is seen in the H1 timeframe
Through the current chart the price movement is dominated by the uptrend from early this morning, this happened after the price closed above the lowest price of the previous day. Expectations of the market to move 50 pips from the round price became the focus yesterday. Among them 1805 - 1810 - 1815.
What is the potential that will happen to the price of gold today, my opinion when looking from this chart, the price reached the resistance area of ​​1815.00 where the price is related to the trendline and I interpret the market is able to make a downtrend movement if the current price does not close above 1815.00
For this reason, I look at the market price being able to go down at least finding the lowest price of the past day. If momentum occurs as a result of the NFP sentiment news at 8.30 tonight, chances are the price is able to go lower.
From this probability, I will set the risk between 1: 3-1: 5 from the 1815.00 trade, and it is likely that the risk setting from the capital will be used as much as 1% of my equity value.
The market’s pulse:
Let’s take a closer look at how these and other important events affect currency prices👇
Currencies
MARKET VIEW
Weekly changes: #EURUSD +0.75%, #GBPUSD +0.80%, #USDJPY -0.18% , #AUDUSD +2.0%, #NZDUSD +2.37%
EURUSD closed at 1.18770. The pair had been rising all week and exceeded 1.1900 on Friday. But it declined later due to the reach of the overbought area.
GBPUSD climbed to a fresh three-week high at 1.38904 thanks to the greenback’s softness but couldn’t remain at the top and closed Friday at 1.38571.
The Japanese yen strengthened against the greenback while USDJPY closed at 109.673. Meanwhile, the pair showed an insignificant reaction to the Japanese Prime Minister Suga’s decision to retire at the end of the month.
AUDUSDrose for two weeks and reached 0.7477, its highest since mid-July. The pair closed Friday at 0.74457, benefiting from the U.S. dollar’s weakness, but the actual Australian statistics were better than forecasted.
Like the previous pair, NZDUSD constantly rose for two consecutive weeks and finished Friday at 0.71568. Having entered the COVID lockdown, New Zealand’s central bank issued a pretty hawkish statement that boosted the pair.
BULLISH TRIGGERS
The eurozone inflation is at a decade high supported the EURUSD pair as well as the greenback’s weakness. The ECB will hold its meeting this week. If its statement sounds hawkish, the pair has the opportunity to extend its advance to 1.120. GBPUSD behaviour was similar to the previous pair. The GBPUSD rose all week and touched 1.38900. The pair had been trading within a wide range for the past two months. And every approach to the edges led to the opposite reversion afterwards.
The Australian GDP showed better than expected numbers, which resulted in the pair’s growth. The RBA will hold its meeting this week, and the investors anticipated the dovish sentiment due to the large numbers of COVID cases in the country. But New Zealand showed the opposite. Having entered the COVID lockdown, the RBNZ declared that it would raise rates towards the end of the year, as it was supposed to. Irrespective of the country’s health status. That gave NZDUSD an additional boost. We’ll see by midweek whether the RBA will change its tone of voice.
BEARISH TRIGGERS
USDJPY declined due to the broad greenback weakness. This week the release of the Japanese GDP may influence the pair’s further direction.
Gold price continues to go down due to the pressure of USD
- Gold price today on September 30th in the world market continued to go down due to continuous pressure when the #USD rose on a large scale and US bond interest rates continued to go up.
- #Gold price in the international market bounced back from the 7-week low. However, a stronger USD has put a lot of pressure on the recovery of precious metals.
- The Fed is expected to announce a plan to reduce bond purchases at the next monetary policy meeting in November and the process of gradually reducing the size of asset purchases will start in December this year and end in the middle of the year 2022. An interest rate hike at the end of 2022
Closing last week’s session, precious metal Gold ended with a bullish candle from 1721 to 1765. After 3 weeks of decline, the last week, according to me, Gold has shown a slight recovery signal. and the possibility that in this week’s trading session, precious metal Gold will continue to be promoted and go up to higher milestones.
- Switching to the daily chart time frame, we can see that the previous 2 trading sessions ended with a bullish candle, but in the last session of the week, precious metal Gold is showing signs of slowing down around. zone 1765. So in my personal opinion at the beginning of today’s trading session, the possibility of Gold will correct down slightly after 2 days of gaining before it can continue to increase like the weekly chart.
We can setup a sell down around current price, stop if price goes through 1770 and safe target around 1755 and expectation 1745.