XAU/USD: pair remains within range
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Current trend
On Monday, the price of gold declined by 0.7% to $1068 per ounce.
US Fed aims at gradual tightening of monetary policy. As long as the US Dollar will be strengthening, the price of gold is likely to remain under pressure. Borrowing costs for purchase and storage of gold tend to increase.
From 3:30 to 8:00 pm (GMT+2) attention needs to be paid to US news releases, among which Consumer Confidence data for December. The indicator is expected to be up to 93.8 from 90.4 points that will support the US Dollar.
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Support and resistance
In December, the XAU/USD pair has been trading within the range of 1085.00-1050.00.
On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, but a growth in the pair is limited by the resistance levels of 1075.00 (EMA144) and 1080.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). On the daily chart, the indicators have started giving sell signals. However, due to a lack of drivers, the price is likely to remain within the range.
Fundamental factors create prerequisites for a further decline in the price of gold.
Support levels: 1071.00, 1067.00, 1060.00, 1050.00.
Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1080.00, 1085.00.
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Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1068.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1040.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1077.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1082.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1088.00 and stop-loss at 1079.00.
XAU/USD: pair remains within range
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Current trend
On Monday, the price of gold declined by 0.7% to $1068 per ounce.
US Fed aims at gradual tightening of monetary policy. As long as the US Dollar will be strengthening, the price of gold is likely to remain under pressure. Borrowing costs for purchase and storage of gold tend to increase.
From 3:30 to 8:00 pm (GMT+2) attention needs to be paid to US news releases, among which Consumer Confidence data for December. The indicator is expected to be up to 93.8 from 90.4 points that will support the US Dollar.
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Support and resistance
In December, the XAU/USD pair has been trading within the range of 1085.00-1050.00.
On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, but a growth in the pair is limited by the resistance levels of 1075.00 (EMA144) and 1080.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). On the daily chart, the indicators have started giving sell signals. However, due to a lack of drivers, the price is likely to remain within the range.
Fundamental factors create prerequisites for a further decline in the price of gold.
Support levels: 1071.00, 1067.00, 1060.00, 1050.00.
Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1080.00, 1085.00.
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Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1068.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1040.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1077.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1082.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1088.00 and stop-loss at 1079.00.
Brent: review and forecast
Current trend
Yesterday, the price of Brent crude oil fell when the American Petroleum Institute published its weekly estimate of US crude oil inventories. Last week, crude oil stocks increased by 2.9 million barrels while analysts expected a decline by 2.5 billion barrels.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4-hour chart is directed down so the price is likely to continue declining. Though MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 36.80, 36.35, 35.90.
Resistance levels: 38.00, 39.00, 40.00.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current level with targets at 36.35, 35.90.
Long positions can be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 38.00 with targets at 39.00, 40.00.
Brent: review and forecast
Current trend
Yesterday, the price of Brent crude oil fell when the American Petroleum Institute published its weekly estimate of US crude oil inventories. Last week, crude oil stocks increased by 2.9 million barrels while analysts expected a decline by 2.5 billion barrels.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4-hour chart is directed down so the price is likely to continue declining. Though MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 36.80, 36.35, 35.90.
Resistance levels: 38.00, 39.00, 40.00.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current level with targets at 36.35, 35.90.
Long positions can be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 38.00 with targets at 39.00, 40.00.
GBP/USD: general analysis
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Current trend
Nationwide Housing Prices data has been released today in the UK. Despite the indicator came in at 4.5% in annual terms, the GBP/USD pair fell to its April lows. At present, a correction might start – the price has turned up and is trading in the area of 1.4823.
Not much macroeconomic data is released ahead of the New Year holidays. Today, attention needs to be paid to Pending Home Sales statistics, due in the US. Analysts forecast the indicator to come in at 0.5% from 0.2% that might support the US Dollar. Nevertheless, no high trading activity should be expected.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, MA50, MA100 and MA144 are above the current price and directed down, indicating a fall in the pair. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes remain almost unchanged. The DI lines of ADX are directed down; according to the indicator, the price tends to decline.
During the day, the pair is likely to be trading within the channel 1.4791-1.4876.
Support levels: 1.4791 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 1.4876 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.4922, 1.4963.
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Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.4876 and stop-loss at 1.4800.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.4876 with the target at 1.4800.
Validity – 1-2 days.
GBP/USD: pair trades flat
Current trend
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair ended the trading day at the opening level of 1.4815.
Trading volumes remain low today, but the volatility might increase during the publication of ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and a series of indicators from the US. Tomorrow, financial markets are closed, and trading will resume on Monday, 4 January.
Support and resistance
The GBP/USD pair is trading within a narrow range between 1.800 and 1.4830. The price is in the lower part of a descending channel with the lower border near the level of 1.4770.
On the daily, weekly and monthly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions. On the 4-hour chart, the indicators show the pair will be trading flat. In general, the decline in the pair tends to continue.
After the breakdown of 1.4800, the price might move further towards 1.4750, 1.4600 (year lows).
Support levels: 1.4800, 1.4770, 1.4750, 1.4700.
Resistance levels: 1.4880, 1.4925, 1.4985, 1.5025, 1.5080, 1.5100, 1.5140, 1.5230.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.4800, 1.4750 and stop-loss at 1.4860.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.4870 with targets at 1.5000, 1.5050, 1.5100, 1.5120, 1.5190 and stop-loss at 1.4820.
USD/CAD: general review
Current trend
Last week there were very few macroeconomic publications and the pair was trading in the narrow range. The pair was pressured by poor US data on Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales that came out worse than forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US that is forecasted to fall to 49.0 points.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain below the price and directed up indicating an upward trend in the pair. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling. ADX is falling, DI lines directed down.
Supportlevels: 1.3772 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.3591, 1.3592, 1.3454.
Resistancelevels: 1.4000 (middle of December high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.4000 and stop-loss at 1.3830.
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of1.3772 with the target at 1.3660 and stop-loss at 1.3830.
USD/JPY: pair fell
Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair significantly fell amid growing tensions in the Middle East where Saudi Arabia on Sunday cut off their diplomatic ties with Iran. At present, investors prefer to switch their funds into safe-haven currencies, one of which is the Yen.
At the same time, the Dollar was unexpectedly supported by poor macroeconomic statistics from the US. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December fell from 48.6 to 48.2 points, while economists predicted a growth to 49.0 points.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is widening. However, the indicator points out to a possibility of the correctional growth in the pair. MACD is falling. Stochastic left the oversold zone and turned horizontally.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 119.39 (local low), 119.05, 118.67 (yesterday low), 118.24, 118.00.
Resistance levels: 119.69 (local high), 120.00 (psychologically important level), 120.16, 120.34, 120.56, 120.83, 121.00.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 120.00 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 121.00 and stop-loss at 119.50. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 119.00 with the target at 118.00 and stop-loss at 119.60. Validity – 2-4 days.
EUR/USD: technical analysis
EUR/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair has failed to break out the 61.8% Fibonacci fan line and turned down. The price is falling along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands and is currently forming the second close below the line. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI broke down important support line and falling towards its November supports. The Composite is reaching its critical levels suggesting a room for further decline is limited.
EUR/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI turned up after it formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is about to test its yesterday’s resistance level.
Key levels
Support levels: 1.0710 (local lows), 1.0673 (November lows), 1.0550 (December lows).
Resistance levels: 1.0801 (active trade), 1.0837 (local highs), 1.0927 (beginning of the week highs).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.0710 with targets at 1.0673, 1.0565 and stop-loss at 1.0745. Validity – 2-3 days.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.0837 with the target at 1.0917 and stop-loss at 1.0795. Validity – 2-3 days.
AUD/USD: pair is falling
Current trend
Yesterday the pair continued falling amid strengthening since the beginning of the week US Dollar.
The Dollar was supported by growing tensions in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In addition, the pair is under pressure amid slowing Chinese economy. The Caixin China Services PMI for December that was published on Wednesday showed a decline in the index from 51.2 to 50.2 points that was significantly worse than economists predicted. Furthermore, the AiG Performance of Services Index in Australia fell in December from 48.2 to 46.3 points.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is turning horizontally while the price range is widening. At the same time, the indicator formed a signal for correctional growth as the price has left the lower border of the range. MACD is falling and giving a very strong sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and trying to turn sideways, thus indicating a possibility of an upward correction.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7042 (local low), 0.7015, 0.6981 (end of September low), 0.6936 (29 September low), 0.6908 (4 September low).
Resistance levels: 0.7068 (local high), 0.7100 (psychologically important level), 0.7128, 0.7158, 0.7183, 0.7200 (5 January high), 0.7234, 0.7259.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7015 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7130, 0.7160, 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.6960. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7015 with the target at 0.6900 and stop-loss at 0.7070. Validity – 2-3 days.
EUR/USD: technical analysis
EUR/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is correcting down from the middle MA of Bollinger Bands as it bounced off the top border of a descending channel. The price remains below the EMA130 and EMA65, both directed slightly down. The RSI failed to retest its end of December resistance and turned down. The Composite is about to test its longer MA.
EUR/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart,the pair is falling from the upper MA of Bollinger Bands after it broke out the line few days ago.The price remains on the level with the EMA130 and EMA65 that are horizontal. The RSI bounced off the overbought zone and falling. The Composite is about to test its longer MA. The MFI turned down suggesting short-term buying pressure is falling.
Key levels
Support levels: 1.0834 (short-term trendline), 1.0798 (December lows), 1.0708 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 1.0939 (upper border of the channel), 1.0993 (local highs), 1.1059 (December highs).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0824 with the target at 1.0743 and stop-loss at 1.0865. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0944 with the target at 1.0991 and stop-loss at 1.0926. Validity – 1-2 days.
XAU/USD: general review
Current trend
Gold continues strengthening amid economic crisis in China, where within the first few minutes of trade the CSI300 index fell by almost 7% thus forcing the authorities to stop operations on the stock market.
In addition, markets are worried about Chinese exchange reserves that in 2015 shrank by 512 billion Dollars. According to experts, the biggest chunk of it was spent trying to artificially support of the Yuan. The Chinese government also introduced limits on Dollar purchases thus trying to stabilise the national currency.
Therefore, due to falling oil prices and instability in China the gold is likely to keep strengthening in the near terms.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1097.66.
Resistance levels: 1112.97.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1100.00 with the target at 1147.00 and stop-loss at 1090.00.
NZD/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the pair was in an upward correction after a significant fall of the previous week.
The pair is pressured by slowing Chinese economy, strengthening Dollar that found a significant support after the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics on the US labour market last Friday, and falling dairy prices.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a descending trend in the pair. MACD histogram is in the negative zone while its volumes remain unchanged. ADX suggest a fall in the pair, DI lines directed down.
Support levels: 0.6505 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands, last week lows).
Resistance levels: 0.6593, 0.6679, 0.6715, 0.6771, 0.6834, 0.6859, 0.6881.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6540 with the target at 0.6510 and stop-loss at 0.6560. Validity – 1 day.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.6510 with the target at 0.6560 and stop-loss at 0.6500. Validity – 1 day.
AUD/USD: pair in correction
Current trend
The pair is in correction after a significant fall of the begging of the year.
The pair was supported by today’s data on Trade Balance from China that came out better than expectations and slightly calmed worries on the market regarding the Chinese economy.
At the same time, the pair remains under pressure amid strengthening US Dollar, falling commodities’ prices and still continuing crisis on the Chinese stock market.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on the Australian labour market for December. The Unemployment Rate is expected to increase from 5.8% to 5.9%.
Support and resistance
A breakout of the level of 0.7070 (ЕМА200 on the hourly chart, ЕМА50 on the 4-hour chart) would send the pair towards 0.7100 (December lows), 0.7145 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7200 (upper border of a descending channel on the 4-hour chart).
On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic signal purchases, and start turning up on the daily chart as well.
Support levels: 0.6980, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7070, 0.7100, 0.7145, 0.7200, 0.7290.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.6970 with targets at 0.6910, 0.6880, 0.6810 and stop-loss at 0.7010.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.7080 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7145, 0.7200, 0.7300 and stop-loss at 0.7030.
EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
The EUR/USD pair continues strengthening.
Today, data on the labour market is due to be published in the US. Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to fall to 2.215 million that could support the US Dollar.
Also today, Fed’s Bullard speech is due regarding perspectives for the American economy. Experts do not expect interest rates to be mentions in the speech, thus strong reaction on the market is unlikely.
Support and resistance
In the short-term, the pair is expected to grow to its resistance at the level of 1.0965 where it is going to reverse down.
Support levels: 1.0714.
Resistance levels: 1.0965.
Trading tips
Open short positions from the level of 1.0965 with the target at 1.0825 and stop-loss at 1.1000.
AUD/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly strengthened amid falling US Dollar that was pressured after the publication of poor data on Jobless Claims in the US. At the same time, despite increased Home Loans in Australia, that usually supports the AUD the pair is falling today.
Today extra attention needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in the US. According to forecasts, the index will fall to 0.0% that might pressure the USD.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading near the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a downward trend in the pair. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are slowly growing.
Support levels: 0.6935, 0.6910, 0.6880, 0.6830, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.6983, 0.7015, 0.7068, 0.7135, 0.7194.
Trading tips
Open short positions after the price consolidation below the level of 0.6860 with the target at 0.6800 and stop-loss at 0.6890.
Long positions can be opened form the level of 0.6935 with the target at 0.7000 and stop-loss at 0.6900.
EUR/USD: pair is growing
Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair strengthened.
The Euro was supported on Friday by poor macroeconomic statistics from the US, where Retail Sales for December fell by 0.1%, while economists predicted a zero change. Retail Sales excluding Autos shrank by 0.1%, against a forecasted growth of 0.2%. In addition, Industrial Production data showed a decline of 0.4%, instead of a predicted growth of 0.2%. December, thus, was the third consecutive month of the decline of the index.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally, while the price range tends to narrow. MACD is slowly growing and giving a very weak buy signal. Stochastic is turning horizontally as it significantly moved away from the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.0900 (local low), 1.0867, 1.0795 (7 January low), 1.0762, 1.0710 (5 January low), 1.0673, 1.0638, 1.0600.
Resistance levels: 1.0946 (local high), 1.1000 (psychologically important level), 1.1059 (15 December high), 1.1100, 1.1153.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price reverse near the level of 1.0867 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 1.1000 and stop-loss at 1.0800. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0867 with the target at 1.0710 and stop-loss at 1.0940. Validity – 2-3 days.
EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The EUR/USD pair is trading below the key resistance level of 1.1000. The European currency remains under pressure from a range of fundamental factors.
France’s economy is facing difficulties and needs additional monetary support of about 2 billion euros, according to a preliminary estimate. Unemployment rate, which is more than 10%, and domestic security are seen as the key issues for the French government. At the same time, the President stated the current situation will not affect tax rate and amount of social benefits.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Consumer Price Index data, released in Germany. If the indicator comes in below 0.3%, ECB might have to introduce additional stimulus measures that will add pressure on the European currency.
Support and resistance
Support level: 1.0825.
Resistance level: 1.1000.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1000 with the target at 1.1140 and stop-loss at 1.0950.
Short-term short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0850 with the target at 1.0800.
XAU/USD: general review
Current trend
The price of gold remains below the level of 1097.66 where it was trading on high volumes last Friday.
According to forecasts, production of gold is declining due to the absence of new fields that could lead in the long-term to increase in the price. In 2016, its output could shrink by 3%. In addition, the price is supported by instability in the Middle East and continuing fall in oil prices.
At the same time, the price remains under pressure due to a likeliness of monetary policy tightening in the US that strengthens the Dollar.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1071.17.
Resistance levels: 1097.66.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1097.66 with the target at 1112.47 and stop-loss at 1090.00.
XAG/USD: technical analysis
XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is moving along the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144 that are directed down. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are barely changing. DI lines are moving up, while ADX is horizontal.
XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA100 and EMA144, but above the EMA50, all directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are very low. DI lines are moving down, while ADX is horizontal.
Key levels
Support levels: 14.00, 13.85, 13.67.
Resistance levels: 14.15, 14.39, 14.75, 14.99, 15.28, 15.51, 16.15, 16.34.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 14.15 with targets at 14.00, 13.85 and stop-loss at 14.30. Validity – 1-2 days.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 13.85 with the target at 14.25 and stop-loss at 13.67. Validity – 1-2 days.