Going to use this topic as my trading journal and hopefully the living document of my philosophy, system and progress. I’ll summarize and publish what I’m currently working with/on, and I’ll start recording/reviewing my trades as well. The current goals are accountability and transparency that will hopefully lead to profitability.
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10.15.2024
Sentiment: ECB news starting 10/16 persisting through this week will likely introduce new volume = change
EURUSD - (24h) Decelerating supply trend approaching ~2N range at/above supply position. 1:1.5RR offered for HTF demand position continuation. Increasing volume with decreasing range and progress implies new buyers. Convergence of supply & Demand vwaps @1.1 imply highly attractive equilibrium (1N supply retest)
=> Enter Buy - Downsized because supply trend isn’t over, but EVR, boundaries and retracement target are all present
*Wait to see if strong demand candle forms before full position entry
USDJPY - (24h) Supply Position Break in Sept, Demand introduced & supply vwap break in Oct, Now there’s new selling introduced that broke the previous candle’s range, implying possible pullback (would correlate to EU retest above). Already in this position from earlier, but adjusted stop for expected pullback range. Lots of volume/demand support in that area for safety. I may trail stop this since it seems like the start of a HRTF move.
=> Hold
DXY just recovered their demand position, so it’ll be interesting to watch this multi-year consolidation shake out.
Ideally, I’d like to whittle these down to shorthand, but I’m not quite there yet. I’ll see what happens tomorrow. In the meantime, I might post an overview of how I’m trading.
10.16.2024
Still expecting ECB & Jobless claims to bring in some more volume, no sign of retracement, and rate is right at the support my stop is based on, so we ain’t lookin good
EURUSD - Still holding, at the make or break point with max available RR. So I’ll hop in if demand shows some strength here, and I’ve got a continuation target if this volume turns out to be more supply
USDJPY - More volume arrived today, but price only consolidated, pullback still seems to be materializing, but tomorrow will tell
Creating a trading journal is a great step toward accountability and transparency. Summarize your strategies, document your trades, and reflect on your progress. Regularly review your performance to identify strengths and weaknesses, ultimately guiding you toward profitability. This living document will enhance your trading philosophy and decision-making process.
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10.20.2024
The only big events this week are news for Euro & USD. Without any significant releases, I suspect less volume and a potentially flatter week. No guarantees
EU - A significant amount of selling has entered in recent weeks, and it remains in control. The only obstacle ahead appears to be a demand position that has held for a year. I see a sell continuation with favorable RR (1:2.3) and a strong stop (outside supply position and HVN on volume profile)
UJ - Lots of selling came in when the current demand trend hit the 50% retracement mark of the previous selling trend. That amount of volume could make this pullback much more volatile than I previously thought. I’m still holding the position with what I believe to be a safe stop and favorable RR (Outside HVN & VWAPs, 1:2 RR)
DXY - Re-entered contested territory and current demand trend seems to have formed a strong stop or pullback target
@brainchild2 I’ll try and substantiate my empty promises this week. I know this will ultimately lead to much needed consistency, and I appreciate your input!
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10.21.2024
Nothing significant this week might indicate continuation of the current movement, which it does have space to run.
EU - Accidentally waited until this morning to enter this short, so I lost a bit of RR, but we’re still in
UJ - More volume came in, and it appears to be buying, so the long is holding
DXY - Demand Average appeared to function as an inflection, which would make the supply position above the next obstacle
Thanks for sharing your journal! I’m looking forward to following along and seeing how your philosophy and system develop over time. By the way, just curious, what’s up with the title Little Bread Trading?
10.22.2024
Same macro view this week, with my short-term long bias for the dollar staying. I did peek at next week, and it seems to be the MOAN (Mother of All News) lol
EU - More volume came through today and it appeared to be selling. Nice supply-heavy candle formed. The rate is flirting with my TP, and I’ve previously closed positions this close to the target, but I’d like to let them ride for now and revisit that decision after trading for a while.
UJ - Like EU, more volume arrived, but this activity consolidated price, and it appears to be additional supply fighting the current demand trend in the same resistance area. A pullback still possible, so I’m holding steady
DXY - Held above long-term demand average, so same analysis as yesterday
@chimmyfx Thanks for following along! I’m not new in this journey, but my attempt at “best practice” certainly is. I’m looking forward to compiling and sharing my brainchild, and I welcome any and all input. “Little Bread” has been a previous moniker, but I felt it was also appropriate for my tiny account. I’m trading real money, but essentially still demo trading with my positions less than $1 currently.
10.23.2024
No macro change in my analysis, but bond activity has been concerning in my opinion. The recent selloff appears to be breaking resistance, and yields are climbing, which could imply some poor news and a prolonged rate hold in the near future. That’s just a guess though
EU - My TP was hit, and I’m sitting on my hands with this pair for now. I could theoretically enter a buy with some solid RR, but even today introduced more selling (vol+supply candle)
UJ - Well, more buying arrived and the rate inflected, so I’m holding the long. I’m hesitant to set a TP unless substantial selling comes through. I’ll likely trail this with how it’s going
DXY - More buying, no change 
10.24.2024
No change at a macro level, and I’m kinda looking forward to the chaos of the next two weeks.
EU - Lots of demand arrived today, so the supply trend appears to be slowing a bit. No confidence in either supply (at demand support) or demand (supply trend holding) just yet.
UJ - Lots of supply arrived, but it pulled back to the high volume node on the volume profile without breaking it, so the demand strength appears to be present. Holding still.
DXY - Selling arrived, and the index may retest that demand average. Continuation is still more likely in my opinion (at least until next week, which is anybody’s guess)
10.25.2024
The week is done, and I’ve not changed my mind about anything since the next two weeks will be wild compared to anything that was released this week. Still being lazy about posting my philosophy and system, but I’ve certainly not forgotten, and I should have time this weekend.
EU - Looks like the supply trend is still in control with the continuation on lower volume, but it’s definitely decelerating into next week. Still sitting on my hands
UJ - Pretty much same take as EU (lower volume continuation shows control still with demand). Still holding!
DXY - I could basically copy/paste this as well. Lower volume continuation with supply position as next target and demand average as potential safe stop.
The thing these charts all have in common: consolidation. What was in control remains in control, but definitely weakened slightly.
I might look at the weekly charts over the weekend and drop that with anything else I’m still promising myself and anyone watching lol
Whats win loss ratio ? Be careful brokers have support and resistance and supply demand traders for breakfast
Hey @ausguyforex, thanks for posting
I honestly feel like the only individual stops at risk of being targeted are tied to uncharacteristically/proportionally large positions. If many stops concentrate in a particular area, then they are just liquidity that will attract price, so they certainly have a higher chance of being hit. Otherwise, the placement of stops from all market participants is infinitely arbitrary, and my positions get lost in the shuffle. My stops are based on locations that have historically provided lots of liquidity in my favor. I can’t assume a stop will hold, but I have to give it the best chance I can.
I’m currently swinging at anything over 1:1.5, and I’m simply hoping to beat the winrate that is statistically required to maintain that minimum profit factor.
Put a sell order below s2 of gold crypto and stocks - your welcome
Hold for at least 6 months or until I return
This is currently how I see trading and the philosophy that I’m building my system upon. It’s kinda just a hodge podge of takes on the market and trading:
Risk:
- The primary goal of trading is to minimize loss
- Stops take precedence over Take Profit
Price:
- Price action is random (It’s impossible to know all influences on price and even less so their impact or timing. Therefore, prediction is impossible, and there is no such thing as “right” or “wrong”)
- Price is fractal (Price behaves differently at various timeframes because of the difference in influences, but the nature of price remains the same at all levels of resolution)
- Price is oscillatory (Though many things influence price, ultimately supply and demand are the two inputting forces that dictate price as the output. This exchange of control occurs continually at all levels of resolution and manifests as oscillation. These oscillations present uniquely each time, but can provide insight into higher timeframes than that of the oscillation itself. The oscillation is what provides us with the basic unit of price action, the range or “N”, which is simply the amplitude of that oscillation)
- Price typically has 3 discernable states:
- Balance (consolidation, ranging) - The forces of supply and demand are finding or at equilibrium
- Imbalance (trending) - Either supply or demand has control
- Volatility (expansion) - Neither balance or imbalance
Charting:
- Markets being random imply that bounding price information to any interval of data is unhelpfully limiting. Therefore charting allows transcendence of any specific interval by adapting to identifiable changes in price action, regardless of duration or timing (That being said, statistical releases are on a monthly cycle, so a 20 day interval is still meaningful in relation to some of price’s influences. Outside of that, I’m not personally a fan of arbitrary parameters and therefore indicators)
- I only use charting tools that allow me to identify potential equilibria or boundaries:
- Rays / Lines - To me, these represent a collective position of either supply or demand, and they may represent a minimum rate of return for that particular security for that duration of time
- Anchored VWAPs - I like to start these at the beginning of the most relevant trends and interpret them as the cost basis for that particular controlling influence
- I interpret intersections of charting tools as being strong equilibria, or repulsive “nodes” (Just depends on what is intersecting and what its bias is)
Trading - I’m either betting with strength within boundaries or I am following strength outside of boundaries.
That’s probably the most complete and concise summation of my current trading philosophy. It took a while to get here, but seeing things this way has made sense to me and is also simple enough to feel very liberating.
10.28.2024
The Mother of all News weeks is here, and I’m interested to see what activity arrives.
EU - More buying showed up today, and it consolidated price further. Though a demand pullback seems to be manifesting, there’s really no RR to justify it yet (smaller timeframes imply that RR may improve though). Still sitting on my hands.
UJ - Similarly to EU, price did consolidate on higher volume, which implies weakening of the current demand trend, but it did so at a higher level, so demand appears to remain in control still. Holding still.
DXY - This demand trend on the dollar is now experiencing a fight and losing some steam, but it is still doing so above strong support. The intersection between the supply and demand averages at a HVN on the volume profile that’s ALSO roughly around a 50% retracement for both the previous and current trends is looking like a highly attractive equilibrium. If this location gets left behind and no pullback materializes, I’d be pretty surprised. I can’t expect it, but if one manifests, I’ve got a solid target now.
Taking a step back and unnecessarily convoluting my chart, this fight seems to be happening right at a supply position that began in Sep '22
10.29.2024
I don’t know which day this week will bring the most volume, but it doesn’t seem like it will be losing steam. Lots more to come this week.
EU - Lots of demand arrived today and seemed to further weaken the supply trend, but no significant range was broken by the candle body, so the next few releases will likely bring the commitment I need to see for any new entry. RR is most favorable for a high TF demand play, but there’s a significant barrier to it around ~1.09. Still sitting on my hands, and they’re very warm by now lol but without having any certainty, my best bet is patience
UJ - Another doji pushes price closer to the supporting demand position that has been holding. The creep along that line implies weakness and has historically been an indicator that the line will break. I’m still holding my position unchanged as this upcoming news could really bring some wild volatility.
DXY - Still consolidating within that tight range on increasing volume, so when this breaks, it will likely move considerably. With the supply position holding like it is, my bias remains a pullback. The HVN forming on the volume profile is massive now.
10.30.2024
GDP data today favored the Euro over the dollar, and BOJ determines its interest rate tonight. The news has brought lots of activity, and tomorrow will be even more indicative of future outlook. Employment and inflation are yet to come.
EU - Tons of demand arrived today, and price is now at the high end of the range I’m watching. The significant range break allows me to conclude that the previous supply trend is officially broken, but there is still a significant equilibrium and supply position in the way of any new demand trend. In hindsight, the activity on 10/22 provided good enough RR for me to have entered within the range I’m watching, but I’ll keep that in mind moving forward. My confidence has shifted to demand because of the significant volume and progress, but I will only make a higher timeframe conclusion after this week. As volume continues to climb, change continues to occur, so I’d like to see supply improve my RR for a 50% retracement play or give me evidence for a higher timeframe move. Not entering yet.
UJ - Another high volume doji along this demand position. This position could be breaking, but it could easily inflect. It doesn’t look weak, only that the opposition is strong. I’ll still hold, as closing removes my ability to catch the inflection and a pullback would simply provide another solid entry.
DXY - Further consolidation. I’m still biased toward a pullback, but we shall see. Big news means big motion.
10.31.2024
Well this week has been as interesting as I’d hoped. US employment still seems fairly strong, which would explain inflation’s persistence (PCE missed high), but the economy is still losing a little steam (GDP).
EU - More demand arrived today, and the important equilibrium I was watching held up. On lower timeframes, price appears to be accelerating and a solid stop was formed, offering 1:1.75RR. The 50% retracement play appears to be on in my mind, and though NFP could easily derail it tomorrow, I will simply downsize to prepare for that.
UJ - In correlation with EU, lots of supply arrived and broke the position I was watching. Though I am confident my stop would hold, the significance of supply is coinciding with my strong pullback target to give me confidence that the pullback will approach ~149. With confidence in a re-entry, I closed my position at 1:1 and will be satisfied with my bird in the hand. Similarly to EU, I have a strong stop formed offering 1:1.5RR, so I will enter a minimum position betting with this pullback.
DXY - Price is still stuck in that tight range, and though strong supply has come in, it isn’t making the same progress as it has on EU/UJ. That could be because of Gold/Stock/Crypto fell today, but it doesn’t bode well for my positions.
We shall see what unemployment brings tomorrow!
11.3.2024
Election week! We will finally get to see all this tension shaken out.
EU - The 50% retracement play died in my arms on Friday, but that makes sense with all that resistance. I simply thought that average would hold. That position may also have been a symptom of overtrading, but I still don’t hate the play in hindsight.
UJ - I thought I entered here, but I have no open position on this pair, so I’m not sure if there was an error or I simply forgot. Most likely the latter. My RR has improved with Friday’s activity, but didn’t retake anything significant enough to signal the pullback is off.
DXY - It’s looking like price might continue up to the selling position above the one that just broke. With all the demand that arrived, it seems to be most likely. That could also imply that the UJ long is still on, but I’m uncertain, so I’ll just be patient.
I may take a break from trading until the election is over and simply focus more on documenting and simplifying my strategy to share here. Time will tell.