Thanks for sharing your journal! I’m looking forward to following along and seeing how your philosophy and system develop over time. By the way, just curious, what’s up with the title Little Bread Trading?
10.22.2024
Same macro view this week, with my short-term long bias for the dollar staying. I did peek at next week, and it seems to be the MOAN (Mother of All News) lol
EU - More volume came through today and it appeared to be selling. Nice supply-heavy candle formed. The rate is flirting with my TP, and I’ve previously closed positions this close to the target, but I’d like to let them ride for now and revisit that decision after trading for a while.
UJ - Like EU, more volume arrived, but this activity consolidated price, and it appears to be additional supply fighting the current demand trend in the same resistance area. A pullback still possible, so I’m holding steady
DXY - Held above long-term demand average, so same analysis as yesterday
@chimmyfx Thanks for following along! I’m not new in this journey, but my attempt at “best practice” certainly is. I’m looking forward to compiling and sharing my brainchild, and I welcome any and all input. “Little Bread” has been a previous moniker, but I felt it was also appropriate for my tiny account. I’m trading real money, but essentially still demo trading with my positions less than $1 currently.
10.23.2024
No macro change in my analysis, but bond activity has been concerning in my opinion. The recent selloff appears to be breaking resistance, and yields are climbing, which could imply some poor news and a prolonged rate hold in the near future. That’s just a guess though
EU - My TP was hit, and I’m sitting on my hands with this pair for now. I could theoretically enter a buy with some solid RR, but even today introduced more selling (vol+supply candle)
UJ - Well, more buying arrived and the rate inflected, so I’m holding the long. I’m hesitant to set a TP unless substantial selling comes through. I’ll likely trail this with how it’s going
DXY - More buying, no change 
10.24.2024
No change at a macro level, and I’m kinda looking forward to the chaos of the next two weeks.
EU - Lots of demand arrived today, so the supply trend appears to be slowing a bit. No confidence in either supply (at demand support) or demand (supply trend holding) just yet.
UJ - Lots of supply arrived, but it pulled back to the high volume node on the volume profile without breaking it, so the demand strength appears to be present. Holding still.
DXY - Selling arrived, and the index may retest that demand average. Continuation is still more likely in my opinion (at least until next week, which is anybody’s guess)
10.25.2024
The week is done, and I’ve not changed my mind about anything since the next two weeks will be wild compared to anything that was released this week. Still being lazy about posting my philosophy and system, but I’ve certainly not forgotten, and I should have time this weekend.
EU - Looks like the supply trend is still in control with the continuation on lower volume, but it’s definitely decelerating into next week. Still sitting on my hands
UJ - Pretty much same take as EU (lower volume continuation shows control still with demand). Still holding!
DXY - I could basically copy/paste this as well. Lower volume continuation with supply position as next target and demand average as potential safe stop.
The thing these charts all have in common: consolidation. What was in control remains in control, but definitely weakened slightly.
I might look at the weekly charts over the weekend and drop that with anything else I’m still promising myself and anyone watching lol
Whats win loss ratio ? Be careful brokers have support and resistance and supply demand traders for breakfast
Hey @ausguyforex, thanks for posting
I honestly feel like the only individual stops at risk of being targeted are tied to uncharacteristically/proportionally large positions. If many stops concentrate in a particular area, then they are just liquidity that will attract price, so they certainly have a higher chance of being hit. Otherwise, the placement of stops from all market participants is infinitely arbitrary, and my positions get lost in the shuffle. My stops are based on locations that have historically provided lots of liquidity in my favor. I can’t assume a stop will hold, but I have to give it the best chance I can.
I’m currently swinging at anything over 1:1.5, and I’m simply hoping to beat the winrate that is statistically required to maintain that minimum profit factor.
Put a sell order below s2 of gold crypto and stocks - your welcome
Hold for at least 6 months or until I return
This is currently how I see trading and the philosophy that I’m building my system upon. It’s kinda just a hodge podge of takes on the market and trading:
Risk:
- The primary goal of trading is to minimize loss
- Stops take precedence over Take Profit
Price:
- Price action is random (It’s impossible to know all influences on price and even less so their impact or timing. Therefore, prediction is impossible, and there is no such thing as “right” or “wrong”)
- Price is fractal (Price behaves differently at various timeframes because of the difference in influences, but the nature of price remains the same at all levels of resolution)
- Price is oscillatory (Though many things influence price, ultimately supply and demand are the two inputting forces that dictate price as the output. This exchange of control occurs continually at all levels of resolution and manifests as oscillation. These oscillations present uniquely each time, but can provide insight into higher timeframes than that of the oscillation itself. The oscillation is what provides us with the basic unit of price action, the range or “N”, which is simply the amplitude of that oscillation)
- Price typically has 3 discernable states:
- Balance (consolidation, ranging) - The forces of supply and demand are finding or at equilibrium
- Imbalance (trending) - Either supply or demand has control
- Volatility (expansion) - Neither balance or imbalance
Charting:
- Markets being random imply that bounding price information to any interval of data is unhelpfully limiting. Therefore charting allows transcendence of any specific interval by adapting to identifiable changes in price action, regardless of duration or timing (That being said, statistical releases are on a monthly cycle, so a 20 day interval is still meaningful in relation to some of price’s influences. Outside of that, I’m not personally a fan of arbitrary parameters and therefore indicators)
- I only use charting tools that allow me to identify potential equilibria or boundaries:
- Rays / Lines - To me, these represent a collective position of either supply or demand, and they may represent a minimum rate of return for that particular security for that duration of time
- Anchored VWAPs - I like to start these at the beginning of the most relevant trends and interpret them as the cost basis for that particular controlling influence
- I interpret intersections of charting tools as being strong equilibria, or repulsive “nodes” (Just depends on what is intersecting and what its bias is)
Trading - I’m either betting with strength within boundaries or I am following strength outside of boundaries.
That’s probably the most complete and concise summation of my current trading philosophy. It took a while to get here, but seeing things this way has made sense to me and is also simple enough to feel very liberating.
10.28.2024
The Mother of all News weeks is here, and I’m interested to see what activity arrives.
EU - More buying showed up today, and it consolidated price further. Though a demand pullback seems to be manifesting, there’s really no RR to justify it yet (smaller timeframes imply that RR may improve though). Still sitting on my hands.
UJ - Similarly to EU, price did consolidate on higher volume, which implies weakening of the current demand trend, but it did so at a higher level, so demand appears to remain in control still. Holding still.
DXY - This demand trend on the dollar is now experiencing a fight and losing some steam, but it is still doing so above strong support. The intersection between the supply and demand averages at a HVN on the volume profile that’s ALSO roughly around a 50% retracement for both the previous and current trends is looking like a highly attractive equilibrium. If this location gets left behind and no pullback materializes, I’d be pretty surprised. I can’t expect it, but if one manifests, I’ve got a solid target now.
Taking a step back and unnecessarily convoluting my chart, this fight seems to be happening right at a supply position that began in Sep '22
10.29.2024
I don’t know which day this week will bring the most volume, but it doesn’t seem like it will be losing steam. Lots more to come this week.
EU - Lots of demand arrived today and seemed to further weaken the supply trend, but no significant range was broken by the candle body, so the next few releases will likely bring the commitment I need to see for any new entry. RR is most favorable for a high TF demand play, but there’s a significant barrier to it around ~1.09. Still sitting on my hands, and they’re very warm by now lol but without having any certainty, my best bet is patience
UJ - Another doji pushes price closer to the supporting demand position that has been holding. The creep along that line implies weakness and has historically been an indicator that the line will break. I’m still holding my position unchanged as this upcoming news could really bring some wild volatility.
DXY - Still consolidating within that tight range on increasing volume, so when this breaks, it will likely move considerably. With the supply position holding like it is, my bias remains a pullback. The HVN forming on the volume profile is massive now.
10.30.2024
GDP data today favored the Euro over the dollar, and BOJ determines its interest rate tonight. The news has brought lots of activity, and tomorrow will be even more indicative of future outlook. Employment and inflation are yet to come.
EU - Tons of demand arrived today, and price is now at the high end of the range I’m watching. The significant range break allows me to conclude that the previous supply trend is officially broken, but there is still a significant equilibrium and supply position in the way of any new demand trend. In hindsight, the activity on 10/22 provided good enough RR for me to have entered within the range I’m watching, but I’ll keep that in mind moving forward. My confidence has shifted to demand because of the significant volume and progress, but I will only make a higher timeframe conclusion after this week. As volume continues to climb, change continues to occur, so I’d like to see supply improve my RR for a 50% retracement play or give me evidence for a higher timeframe move. Not entering yet.
UJ - Another high volume doji along this demand position. This position could be breaking, but it could easily inflect. It doesn’t look weak, only that the opposition is strong. I’ll still hold, as closing removes my ability to catch the inflection and a pullback would simply provide another solid entry.
DXY - Further consolidation. I’m still biased toward a pullback, but we shall see. Big news means big motion.
10.31.2024
Well this week has been as interesting as I’d hoped. US employment still seems fairly strong, which would explain inflation’s persistence (PCE missed high), but the economy is still losing a little steam (GDP).
EU - More demand arrived today, and the important equilibrium I was watching held up. On lower timeframes, price appears to be accelerating and a solid stop was formed, offering 1:1.75RR. The 50% retracement play appears to be on in my mind, and though NFP could easily derail it tomorrow, I will simply downsize to prepare for that.
UJ - In correlation with EU, lots of supply arrived and broke the position I was watching. Though I am confident my stop would hold, the significance of supply is coinciding with my strong pullback target to give me confidence that the pullback will approach ~149. With confidence in a re-entry, I closed my position at 1:1 and will be satisfied with my bird in the hand. Similarly to EU, I have a strong stop formed offering 1:1.5RR, so I will enter a minimum position betting with this pullback.
DXY - Price is still stuck in that tight range, and though strong supply has come in, it isn’t making the same progress as it has on EU/UJ. That could be because of Gold/Stock/Crypto fell today, but it doesn’t bode well for my positions.
We shall see what unemployment brings tomorrow!
11.3.2024
Election week! We will finally get to see all this tension shaken out.
EU - The 50% retracement play died in my arms on Friday, but that makes sense with all that resistance. I simply thought that average would hold. That position may also have been a symptom of overtrading, but I still don’t hate the play in hindsight.
UJ - I thought I entered here, but I have no open position on this pair, so I’m not sure if there was an error or I simply forgot. Most likely the latter. My RR has improved with Friday’s activity, but didn’t retake anything significant enough to signal the pullback is off.
DXY - It’s looking like price might continue up to the selling position above the one that just broke. With all the demand that arrived, it seems to be most likely. That could also imply that the UJ long is still on, but I’m uncertain, so I’ll just be patient.
I may take a break from trading until the election is over and simply focus more on documenting and simplifying my strategy to share here. Time will tell.
11.10.2024
Looks like volume will be arriving at the end of this week with a concentration on Thursday.
EU - Price fell through and is holding below the demand position, and new supply seems to be arriving even on Friday. A continuation could be very real at this point, as there is no clear obstacle on the chart, a glut of supply and no obstructing news for a few days. I have a stop (demand position) and 1:1.5 RR within a 2N range, so I will open a continuing short.
UJ - More demand arrived during this uptrend, and a new stop was formed (20ema/high-vol low), allowing me a continuation reentry with 1:2 RR
DXY - Price is still within the selling range that has held since 10/23, but the new volume appears to be demand eagerly hitting that supply position. Though this could signify an obstacle for my EU play, demand appears to be gaining strength into this obstacle, not losing it.
11.11.2024
No news yet No change in what I said yesterday in terms of projecting volume.
EU - Today was another supply continuation. Volume did decrease, but the majority of it was selling. Price flirted with my TP, so I closed the position just outside it (bird in the hand). This may continue to lazily fall until more volume arrives.
UJ - Though price overall rose, it appears that some supply arrived to slow it down. I believe holding is still the right call considering the recent demand strength and continued formations of both a higher high and low above the 20ema.
DXY - Price held above the major supply position I was watching. If a low is created above this position, the dollar may run for a while.
11.12.2024
Still expecting volume at the end of this week, starting tomorrow.
EU - No change in analysis Supply continuation did occur, and my TP was hit. It did look like some sellers left though.
UJ - More demand arrived today and improved the standing on my current position. I’ll continue to hold.
DXY - More demand arrived and pushed the dollar beyond that major supply position. Good sign for continuation in that direction.
11.14.2024
Never finished typing up yesterday’s journal, so I’m jumping to today.
EU - There was similar volume as yesterday, and supply lost some steam, so it appears more buyers arrived. We are also at the 2N target I’m watching given the start of the trend and subsequent inflection. Though this move is certainly not weak, I don’t see an attractive setup for either continuation or reversal.
UJ - Similarly to EU, nearly-equal volume arrived, but this was primarily demand with the same strength as shown previously. I’m holding the continuation.
DXY - Equal volume, similar demand result, but strong injection of supply on lower TF. Price is also near a similar 2N target that is almost identical to EU. No attractive entry for continuation or reversal yet.
11.15.2024
Lots of UJ news next week, so lots of volume to come, but not much for EU.
EU - Demand appears to be arriving at this 2N location on the chart. It’s not overwhelming, but it may throw EU into a sideways run momentarily. No entry at this time, as there is no stop for reversal, nor pullback to capitalize on for continuation.
UJ - Today was pretty much entirely supply, but price did not break the demand position I am currently trading. I’ll hold the continuation through the weekend, as the range being entered was previously gobbled up with about double the volume in demand.
DXY - Price retreated on slightly decreasing volume, which is less concerning than increasing volume. Price is also approaching the 2N target I’m watching, but has enough space such that my position can improve. Though EU is losing steam, UJ could close that distance.
11.18.2024
Lots of BOJ news this week, so I’m expecting some more volume on that pair this week.
EU - Lots of progress made by demand today on decreasing volume, implying sellers leaving. A retracement appears to be materializing.
UJ - High volume doji above demand position I’m trading. I will hold unless that position breaks.
DXY - More dollar weakness shown, but on decreasing volume, so demand remains in control. This retracement bodes poorly for my UJ position, depending on the volume that comes through this week. With no significant EU news, this retracement could continue into next week.
